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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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So what is the "proper" way for a long to deal with a short squeeze when it happens? Do you just hold on to your shares and let things rip, or should you watch for a peak sell, and then buy back when the price comes back to Earth? (Will there be a high peak and then a return to normal, or is it likely to stay much higher after a short squeeze?)

I see this too often here. There isn't going to be a vw style squeeze that happens in a matter of hours. If it happens it will unfold in weeks. Go review the mid 2013 rise. There was never a time Where the correct move was to panic sell.
 
I see this too often here. There isn't going to be a vw style squeeze that happens in a matter of hours. If it happens it will unfold in weeks. Go review the mid 2013 rise. There was never a time Where the correct move was to panic sell.

Exactly. The VW squeeze was very unique. Basically, the shorts weren't able to find shares to buy back because Porsche had bought up all the available shares as part of their takeover bid.
 
I see this too often here. There isn't going to be a vw style squeeze that happens in a matter of hours. If it happens it will unfold in weeks. Go review the mid 2013 rise. There was never a time Where the correct move was to panic sell.
Here is a more recent one: DRYS. Some lucky few cashed in.

drys.JPG


About plant closure for paint shop capacity increase:
I thought, the new paint shop was already very high capacity, for 500,000 cars a year. There won't be any volume Model 3 production for a while. Why is the paint shop capacity an issue at this stage?
So, the shutdown is not for the Schuler press installation?
 
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I see this too often here. There isn't going to be a vw style squeeze that happens in a matter of hours. If it happens it will unfold in weeks. Go review the mid 2013 rise. There was never a time Where the correct move was to panic sell.

Isn't that what I was asking? Is this going to be a fire drill where everyone exits the building in an orderly fashion; or is this going to be a fire in a night club where the emergency exits are blocked/locked and there is going to be a stampede through the front door where a lot of people get hurt?
 
Regarding the 70 kWh Model 3 pack. This is exactly what one would expect with 480 cells per module, 8 modules and 0% improvement in chemistry.

These cells were prototypes cells made around a year ago, possibly to a large degree by hand, so it wouldn't be strange if any chemistry improvements hadn't been implemented yet. Thus, I'm still thinking ~77 kWh is plusible for the top spec Model 3, which would be a 10% improvement in chemistry.
 
The article quotes Tesla that the pause is to bring up the capacity of the paint shop. Yet I remember that there was some brooha with the shorts last year about the paint shop not having enough capacity which ended when Fred from Electrek got Tesla on record that their paint shop was not the limiting factor? Trying to find the article about it but my google foo is very weak at this point.

Replying to myself because I got it. The earlier brooha was about permits, not about the capacity per se. See Tesla’s paint shop is no bottleneck for Model 3, Tesla says ‘on track for 500,000 cars in 2018’
 
So what is the "proper" way for a long to deal with a short squeeze when it happens? Do you just hold on to your shares and let things rip, or should you watch for a peak sell, and then buy back when the price comes back to Earth? (Will there be a high peak and then a return to normal, or is it likely to stay much higher after a short squeeze?)
Here is the deal. No one knows. In 2012.. I think I bought into Tsla at 33 bucks or so. I should of just held. .i kept reading this board....but probably listened to the wrong folk or more probably just misinterpreted everything. I sold...and bought...and sold and bought...always regretting the sell and buying for higher . I studied the Vw graph...and always thought prices would go up then down. But it did niot. Just up.. I should of just given luv2b all my money and then I probably woulD be on the same beach s/he is at right now.


So here is what I am going to do. Nothing but hold. Boring. Unsexy. And even if it shoots up and comes down I can live with that. But I cannot afford to chase it again...I still have less shares than I did initially.
 
So here is what I am going to do. Nothing but hold. Boring. Unsexy. And even if it shoots up and comes down I can live with that. But I cannot afford to chase it again...I still have less shares than I did initially.

That happened to me when it hit 200 for the first time. I thought that was "nose bleed" high. Net effect lost 7 shares so quit. Long ever since.
 
Yes, speculation about Feb 20 production of pilot Model 3s is likely the reason for the after-hours jump. Maybe this development explains the late timing of Q4 ER. I suspect lots of shorts will be itching to find a way out soon.
I sure hope there is February production of pilot (beta) Model 3s. Otherwise there is little chance of having significant Model 3 production in 4Q17. This has nothing to do with the February shutdown or the Model 3 BIW and final assembly lines which were just empty spaces when I was in Fremont 7 weeks ago. But I expect many people will believe that it does.
 
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Isn't that what I was asking? Is this going to be a fire drill where everyone exits the building in an orderly fashion; or is this going to be a fire in a night club where the emergency exits are blocked/locked and there is going to be a stampede through the front door where a lot of people get hurt?

There are lots of cases in between. This morning looks to me like a Best Buy store just before doors open on Black Friday.

Of course these analogies all fail to take into account the two-way interaction of markets. Here, as people shove and push their way through the exit door, an equally rowdy group is going to be trying to enter through the same door.
 
IFFFF we get to the 52 week high ($269.34) tomorrow (Friday works, too) thanks to the Model 3 news and bust through that resistance and things are still tame around here may Elon help me...Come on people, we've been waiting 2.5 years for this! Act like you're in a Tesla Motors Club!! :cool:
We bust through 52 week highs like it's butter and all we have is Bgarret eating popcorn trying not to be excited, ev-enthusiast drinking coffee TRYING to get excited but then giving up and switching to decaf...and what about the rest of you? Yeah, Tesla could come out and say the rumors are false, or an earthquake could hit Fremont today, MMD could turn bullish and signal the top or who knows what because anything is possible but this is a pretty good day so far for someone in a Tesla Motors Club.

Tame. All of you. Tame.:p
 
so... here we are... another $10 for virtually no reason hitting the topside of the channel... or is it the big paint shop news?... or is it donald trump?... or is it shorts?...

nope... it's a bot.

Model 3 was announced to start beta production on February 20th. That's pretty damn substantial.
 
Lets calm down here, tesla only confirmed that it will pause S & X production, perform maintenance on those lines and do some work on the paint shop to prepare for Model 3.

Nowhere that i could find has tesla confirmed that it would start producing model 3 validation vehicles

Lets keep the facts separated from speculation and personal desires
 
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