RobStark
Well-Known Member
Not a "reliability" study but "dependability" study.
Tesla needs 3 years of sales with at least two models to qualify.
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Not a "reliability" study but "dependability" study.
Tesla needs 3 years of sales with at least two models to qualify.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
dhrivnak
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) Not currently.
2) Roadster was not produced in sufficient numbers to gather statistically significant data.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
LOL at disagrees.
Come on, 99.9999% of TMCers know that is sarcastic without sarcasm tags.
dandurston
Member
Regarding Model 3 Volumes
Tesla plans to get to 5000 cars/wk in Q4. If they achieve this mid-quarter, that leaves ~6 weeks at 5k plus a previous 18 weeks of potential production at a much lower rate. I think 500/wk is generous for the previous weeks because the first couple months will probably involve making 50 cars, tweaking the line for 3 weeks, and then making another 50. So I think 39k Model 3 in 2017 is a generous estimate.
More conservatively, I see Tesla getting to 5k/wk in mid-December, with 1-2K per week for the proceeding 4 weeks and then maybe 2k cars total for the 18 weeks before that. So that would be 18k Model 8 in 2017 and deliveries of about 2k.
Tesla plans to get to 5000 cars/wk in Q4. If they achieve this mid-quarter, that leaves ~6 weeks at 5k plus a previous 18 weeks of potential production at a much lower rate. I think 500/wk is generous for the previous weeks because the first couple months will probably involve making 50 cars, tweaking the line for 3 weeks, and then making another 50. So I think 39k Model 3 in 2017 is a generous estimate.
More conservatively, I see Tesla getting to 5k/wk in mid-December, with 1-2K per week for the proceeding 4 weeks and then maybe 2k cars total for the 18 weeks before that. So that would be 18k Model 8 in 2017 and deliveries of about 2k.
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The really exciting sentence is this one (at least for a long like me)
Later this year, we expect to finalize locations for Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5 (Gigafactory 2 is the Tesla solar plant in New York).
So they will do what is necessary to outgrow the competition.
One GF in China, 1 in Europe and an other one in the ... US ?
Later this year, we expect to finalize locations for Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5 (Gigafactory 2 is the Tesla solar plant in New York).
So they will do what is necessary to outgrow the competition.
One GF in China, 1 in Europe and an other one in the ... US ?
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Paracelsus
Active Member
I think we saw enough excitement last week that the UAE could be one of the locations
racer26
Active Member
You're being way conservative.
There will be no 3 weeks of fiddling with the line to make 50 cars.
I expect 5k/wk mid 4Q17, and probably an average of 2k/wk for the weeks from July to there. The early ones lower, the ones just before 5k will be in the 4k range.
6 weeks at 5k = 30k
19 weeks at 2k = 38k
I expect around 70k. If the line gets roaring faster, they could easily make Elon's 100k lower bound.
Also, its not like it just stops when it hits 5k/wk. The letter says the expect to continue the ramp through 10k/wk sometime in 2018.
One number I keep monitoring in each ER is the Customer Deposits. For the first time this has decreased Q on Q, from $690m to $663M. Still, considering, that they must have finished delivering the MX signature backlog by EOY, this is impressive as those puppies carve out 40k a pice from this number once they get converted to orders.
Only problem is, without knowing where the M3 preorder tally is at, it's impossible to calculate the S/X backlog.
Only problem is, without knowing where the M3 preorder tally is at, it's impossible to calculate the S/X backlog.
Interesting that they appear to have only counted the first 1000 AP2 cars as revenue, which means that a future quarter will have a LOT of extra revenue from virtually every car since last October popping $3k-$8k onto the pile. This is what happens when you only look at accounting results and not actual money, similar to what happened with lease accounting that will still be catching up for some time in GAAP figures.
He was so desperate... Cuts into everyone's turn. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.
Is the Spiegel video online or just live? I don't generally watch talking head news, but I could make an exception for a laugh.
racer26
Active Member
Maybe firing the guy who supposedly stole autopilot data?
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