2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Runarbt]

Probably the second biggest surprise from the call (first being Wheeler's leaving) was the flip-flopping on an end-of-March continuation of the M3 reveal. Suddenly, poof, gone, vanished in an instant, with Elon stammering about maybe July now. What happened?! I'm disappointed. This is a pretty big change from what's been said previously. Surprised people aren't more concerned about this.

Why concerned? They would have had no problem showing a handmade car with new interiour. They chose not to.

Dont want a longer wait line just yet? Save the news for closer to capital raise If needed? May be many reasons. Imo not should cause concern.

 

[dc_h]

Multiple Giga factories => Multiple cap raises. That's how I see it.
I'm feeling dizzy hearing those ginormous numbers, when current production is much less than 1 GWh a year.
Wake me up when Tesla produces 1 GWh a month at the GF. That's just 16k Model 3 a month.

When you speak honestly about potential bear issues I do appreciate your value on the forum. When just pure BS, it gets a little old. Less than 1GWh a year based on what? It has been producing cells since January 4th. Assuming you are not counting and weighing trucks leaving the facility, please explain your prescience? It sounded like initial cells are going into PowerPacks, but Tesla is not breaking out battery and solar at this point in quarterly report, so how do YOU know what the GF produced since January 4th?

It is my opinion that the confusion about the difference between facts, opinions and supposition is a key reason we live in a post fact based political world.

 

[farzyness]

Added @ $258.50 earlier today. I have a hard time seeing the stock go down with future catalysts in play. If they successfully ramp to 5k cars by end of year, look out.

 

[sitter_k]

It is my opinion that the confusion about the difference between facts, opinions and supposition is a key reason we live in a post fact based political world.

I wonder if those who bash mainstream media would feel just as comfortable getting financial information from alternative sources...

 

[kenliles]

Multiple Giga factories => Multiple cap raises. That's how I see it.
I'm feeling dizzy hearing those ginormous numbers....
Wake me up when Tesla produces 1 GWh a month at the GF---

Ok, have a nice nap.

@mmd
Going to be massive capital spent to disrupt transportation and energy, from Tesla raises, Tesla profits, and many Others.
If you're dizzy now, you're going to be needing lots of drugs-
If you move to the right state, they'll be legal-
sleep well
[ps- buy some TSLA before you go down and wake up happier imo]

 

[dirtyofries]

I wonder if those who bash mainstream media would feel just as comfortable getting financial information from alternative sources...

This sounds like an excellent scam opportunity.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, Tesla at $260 just crosses into the territory I start adding trading shares to my core position or sell puts (which I did a couple of hours ago), and let friends who've not yet gotten in the stock with a core position know that the stock is now priced for aggressive buying to build a long term holding. fwiw, I did mention in this thread that I was pulling back on my buy recommendation to friends when it crossed over this level a couple of weeks ago.

$260 does not come from "TA", or taking Elon's trillion market cap projection as a given, but rather crossing to over 25% below my assessment of fair value, $350 (which is what it's been before the recent runup, during it, and today as well).

I'll spread the addition of trading shares all the way through a potential drop to the $180 range. I think it's quite improbable to go that low (it would probably take a steep general market selloff).

This strategy is designed to never sell my core shares below my estimate of fair value, but still have a way of making use of selloffs that have no basis in the underlying value of the company, like today's.

In nearly 5 years of TSLA ownership, this has allowed me to never be out of a single share of my core position, and to have had all my trading share efforts be profitable (and the bears and media misinformation have provided a considerable number of such trades to me).

 

[larmor]

@mmd
Going to be massive capital spent to disrupt transportation and energy, from Tesla raises, Tesla profits, and many Others.
If you're dizzy now, you're going to be needing lots of drugs-
If you move to the right state, they'll be legal-
sleep well
[ps- buy some TSLA before you go down and wake up happier imo]

Multiple GFs should be all the guidance needed. No one is making batteries for flashlights anymore...

 

[madodel]

This sounds like an excellent scam opportunity.

Isn't that what certain hedge funds exist for?

 

[DaveT]

fwiw, Tesla at $260 just crosses into the territory I start adding trading shares to my core position or sell puts (which I did a couple of hours ago), and let friends who've not yet gotten in the stock with a core position know that the stock is now priced for aggressive buying to build a long term holding. fwiw, I did mention in this thread that I was pulling back on my buy recommendation to friends when it crossed over this level a couple of weeks ago.

$260 does not come from "TA", or taking Elon's trillion market cap projection as a given, but rather crossing to over 25% below my assessment of fair value, $350 (which is what it's been before the recent runup, during it, and today as well).

I'll spread the addition of trading shares all the way through a potential drop to the $180 range. I think it's quite improbable to go that low (it would probably take a steep general market selloff).

This strategy is designed to never sell my core shares below my estimate of fair value, but still have a way of making use of selloffs that have no basis in the underlying value of the company, like today's.

In nearly 5 years of TSLA ownership, this has allowed me to never be out of a single share of my core position, and to have had all my trading share efforts be profitable (and the bears and media misinformation have provided a considerable number of such trades to me).

I think you've got a smart strategy there.

 

[SteveG3]

I think you've got a smart strategy there.

Thanks Dave, always good to see you posting here. The strategy also had a very very compelling track record over about the 5 years I used it with the other individual stock I've owned this century (I owned the stock about 8 years, but fell into this strategy after about 3 years of experiencing even larger irrational moves than Tesla. Instead of being frustrated by "the market being stupid", I learned to get paid by noticing it being irrational). For me the key has been only investing in the extremely rare company that I feel very high levels of confidence about 1) being able to project earnings 5-10 years out into the future, 2) the company's current price being deeply undervalued vs. that earnings projection.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Multiple Giga factories => Multiple cap raises. That's how I see it.
I'm feeling dizzy hearing those ginormous numbers, when current production is much less than 1 GWh a year.
Wake me up when Tesla produces 1 GWh a month at the GF. That's just 16k Model 3 a month.

You promise you will go to sleep until then?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Exactly.

This actually is the only move for Tesla.

If a March Model 3 reveal happens it will 1) significantly impact Model S and X sales (probably for the rest of the 2017) and 2) increase the Model 3 orders line even longer.

The reveal MUST be at the latest of the latest moment, the close to Model 3 production the better in order to try to not osborne sales of Model S and X.

Tesla needs to transfer some of those Model 3 orders to Model S and X, not the opposite. For that they need to go "radio silence" in everything related to M3 until the last moment possible and fully increase the awareness for Model S and X.

The good thing, is that this actually proves that they really have a big line of Model 3 orders and 1 or 2 years production full.

Maybe another question to ask about M3 reveal pt3 is why do we assume that it will be like reveal pt1? why can't it be like reveal pt2, where it was packaged into a MS/MX AP2 reveal. What if the reveal pt3 comes in the form of announcing new interior design for MS/MX with the HUD? What other major new updates do we expect on the M3? I'm guessing not much. Beyond the HUD, next unknowns are configuration and option pricing. I don't expect these to come out until very close to the delivery, maybe June? Specs on range and 0-60 would be nice to know ASAP but Tesla may be keeping those back to announce together with the configuration details.

 

[Turing]

Probably the second biggest surprise from the call (first being Wheeler's leaving) was the flip-flopping on an end-of-March continuation of the M3 reveal. Suddenly, poof, gone, vanished in an instant, with Elon stammering about maybe July now. What happened?! I'm disappointed. This is a pretty big change from what's been said previously. Surprised people aren't more concerned about this.

I'm not sure this is the case. I think we could still get interior reveal within a month but that wont be the final reveal, which would be for July?

 

[Waiting4M3]

I wonder if those who bash mainstream media would feel just as comfortable getting financial information from alternative sources...

Usually there could be multiple versions of alternative fact, but only one version of actual fact. For example Kelley Ann Conway just got muzzled for saying too many things that differ from the official White House press, guess keeping version control on alt fact is challenging even for the masters of alt facts. Time will sort them out. That's the beauty of holding TSLA long, eventually GGF capacity and M3 delivery date will speak for themselves.

 

[jhm]

Blind Faith Price Targets

A path to $1.2T market cap by 2027? Come discuss a new long-term price target for Tesla.

 

[T3slaTulips]

I'm not sure this is the case. I think we could still get interior reveal within a month but that wont be the final reveal, which would be for July?

Would be nice. Maybe new interior option for S/X first?

 

[McKricas]

Maybe another question to ask about M3 reveal pt3 is why do we assume that it will be like reveal pt1? why can't it be like reveal pt2, where it was packaged into a MS/MX AP2 reveal. What if the reveal pt3 comes in the form of announcing new interior design for MS/MX with the HUD? What other major new updates do we expect on the M3? I'm guessing not much. Beyond the HUD, next unknowns are configuration and option pricing. I don't expect these to come out until very close to the delivery, maybe June? Specs on range and 0-60 would be nice to know ASAP but Tesla may be keeping those back to announce together with the configuration details.

This is exactly what I think about the "new features" of M3 too.

I believe we should see - some time soon, an update of the Model S and X with the tech that is supposed to be in M3 too.

This is the best case for 1) continuing to improve sales of Model X and S, 2) Testing Model 3 tech as soon as possible and 3) Move Model 3 orders to Model S and X.

If Model S and X get all the main M3 innovations there's no reason for a potential client of this segment to not get one S or X right away.

Elon already said that M3 is mainly the same pt1 car with some refinements but without the bells and whistles of S/X. Meaning that Model S and X MUST continue to be a "better" car than Model 3.

The only "innovation" that I believe will not enter in Model S/X soon is a redesign of the S/X battery pack, mainly because there aren't enough cells production for the 3 models.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

fwiw, Tesla at $260 just crosses into the territory I start adding trading shares to my core position or sell puts (which I did a couple of hours ago), and let friends who've not yet gotten in the stock with a core position know that the stock is now priced for aggressive buying to build a long term holding. fwiw, I did mention in this thread that I was pulling back on my buy recommendation to friends when it crossed over this level a couple of weeks ago.

$260 does not come from "TA", or taking Elon's trillion market cap projection as a given, but rather crossing to over 25% below my assessment of fair value, $350 (which is what it's been before the recent runup, during it, and today as well).

I'll spread the addition of trading shares all the way through a potential drop to the $180 range. I think it's quite improbable to go that low (it would probably take a steep general market selloff).

This strategy is designed to never sell my core shares below my estimate of fair value, but still have a way of making use of selloffs that have no basis in the underlying value of the company, like today's.

In nearly 5 years of TSLA ownership, this has allowed me to never be out of a single share of my core position, and to have had all my trading share efforts be profitable (and the bears and media misinformation have provided a considerable number of such trades to me).

I have a very similar strategy but I start accumulating shares south of 220. Best buys were under 210 if I have the discipline. Never had a losing trade except the weird SCTY conversation to TSLA at nearly $500/ share.

 

[SteveG3]

I have a very similar strategy but I start accumulating shares south of 220. Best buys were under 210 if I have the discipline. Never had a losing trade except the weird SCTY conversation to TSLA at nearly $500/ share.

Perhaps even more similar than you think. My last trading share buying cycle started at $225 in April of last year, as my valuation of Tesla a year ago was $300. Bought from there down to $180 (still had some dry powder if we dropped to $150s).

That first trade at $225 was actually the worst I've made in Tesla, as I had to sit on those trading shares until December, but still got a profit (worst because of a slip in attentiveness on my part, not the purchase itself. I didn't sell them in $240s a few weeks after I bought them just due to being a bit lax about entering a limit sell order). If Tesla does indeed go up and outperform the markets over the next 5-10 years, sitting on trading shares a long time is basically the worst that happens (unless you start using substantial amounts of margin. I go up to about 10-15% margin if price drops through the full set of my trading share buy points)