Historically most equity raises have been followed, at least initially, with stock price increases. This is largely because the price was pushed down so hard in anticipation of the capital raise.
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Historically most equity raises have been followed, at least initially, with stock price increases. This is largely because the price was pushed down so hard in anticipation of the capital raise.
Thanks for the advice, I guess I will just stick through it. It was foolish of me not to average my buys as I went all in during after hours right after seeing the earnings report which I thought was 100% good news seeing that model 3 is on track for the first time. How large of an impact on SP do you reckon if Elon Musk decides to raise capital through selling more shares?
If that's the case then it is definitely worth sticking at this point. Sadly I dont have spare money to take advantage of the lowered price anymore.
1) The Model 3 will not have a significant impact on Model S or Model X demand. Tesla is entering new markets in the coming months. Also, a lot of people who buy a Model S or Model X will also buy a Model 3. Also, a 500,000 vehicle backlog means the Model 3 will be worth the same or more (possibly a lot more) than sticker price 1-2 years after purchased.
The secondary market for Model S and Model X will be huge.
All of the things left out of the conference call can be used as "wild cards" to sustain and increase confidence in Tesla (the company and the stock over the next few weeks).
No idea where the bottom will be, but it was clear to anyone watching how the stock would react to this quarters earnings report. As for what will happen tomorrow, next week, or over the next month, I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
As others have said, production rated has flattened. Company has said multiple times that demand itself is up.
SG&A combines both Tesla and Solarcity. In Q3 2016, Solarcity's SG&A amounted to $198.7 million. Tesla stated that the Solarcity portion was $85 million since the acquisition. So the rest of Tesla's Q4 SG&A was $371 million, which is only a $35 million increase, or about 11%.
Capex guidance isn't enormous. Remember, the company is not only bringing online 2017 Model 3 related expansion, but also portions that are required for 2018 volumes. My rough calculations for capex are roughly inline... the capex is front loaded anyways.
You are forgetting what was left on table. The ~2,700 vehicle that missed by two days represents about $60 million in revenues that weren't received but the COGS and SG&A were present in Q4. Further, EAP revenues weren't included and again, those COGS, SG&A, and R&D were present in Q4. Assuming $3,500 of the EAP option price can be realized, that's $87 million. Between the two, that's $147 million in revenue that didn't arrive in Q4, and that's not even all the finished goods inventory in transit.
Also, the Solarcity cash flows need to separated, so the $448 million in negative cash flow from operating activities needs to also be balanced against the $180 million in cash from from non-controlling interests, or at least the $98 million in the net income (loss) attribuate to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interest.
The $147 million in revenue that didn't make it in Q4 would have made the difference for a GAAP positive quarter.
Likely Q1 will look fantastic except for capex, including selling more energy generation revenues off. I think it would have been more useful to see the Tesla versus Solarcity numbers so that people would have more clarity.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Just a thought: what if a HUD needs certain level of EAP/FSD working to make it worthwhile to roll out? If the iPhone came out without Google Maps it would be a lot less useful. Maybe Tesla is waiting for some kind of AP killer app demo to unveil the HUD
If you can, take a look at the 2016 short-term thread, and watch the sentiment of the board around the February time frame (when stocks turned violently south, then back up). Also check its sentiment again in the Oct-Nov time frame (when stocks dropped despite a great Q3 earnings). I think you'll find that in the short term, there's no sure thing, and if you don't have a strong stomach, don't watch the short-term stock behavior. Long term, you should be fine.
Full disclosure: I have core shares that I haven't touched despite the ups and downs (average cost of $180/share thanks to advice on SCTY arbitrage), sold some shares back at $250 and $275, and an open GTC order to buy TSLA @ $200.
Sounds familiar,
A note on our lawsuit against Otto and Uber – Waymo
"Recently, we uncovered evidence that Otto and Uber have taken and are using key parts of Waymo’s self-driving technology. Today, we’re taking legal action against Otto and its parent company Uber for misappropriating Waymo trade secrets and infringing our patents. We wanted to share more context on why we made this decision."
"We found that six weeks before his resignation this former employee, Anthony Levandowski, downloaded over 14,000 highly confidential and proprietary design files for Waymo’s various hardware systems, including designs of Waymo’s LiDAR and circuit board. To gain access to Waymo’s design server, Mr. Levandowski searched for and installed specialized software onto his company-issued laptop. Once inside, he downloaded 9.7 GB of Waymo’s highly confidential files and trade secrets, including blueprints, design files and testing documentation. Then he connected an external drive to the laptop. Mr. Levandowski then wiped and reformatted the laptop in an attempt to erase forensic fingerprints."
A note on our lawsuit against Otto and Uber – Waymo
"Recently, we uncovered evidence that Otto and Uber have taken and are using key parts of Waymo’s self-driving technology. Today, we’re taking legal action against Otto and its parent company Uber for misappropriating Waymo trade secrets and infringing our patents. We wanted to share more context on why we made this decision."
"We found that six weeks before his resignation this former employee, Anthony Levandowski, downloaded over 14,000 highly confidential and proprietary design files for Waymo’s various hardware systems, including designs of Waymo’s LiDAR and circuit board. To gain access to Waymo’s design server, Mr. Levandowski searched for and installed specialized software onto his company-issued laptop. Once inside, he downloaded 9.7 GB of Waymo’s highly confidential files and trade secrets, including blueprints, design files and testing documentation. Then he connected an external drive to the laptop. Mr. Levandowski then wiped and reformatted the laptop in an attempt to erase forensic fingerprints."
It's quite possible that this isn't physical crash testing, but just computer modeling.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Adding to the above:
Knowing one's tolerances is probably the #1 key to successful investing.
Most people should NOT be buying shares in TSLA, because the volatility triggers the average person to sell at incorrect times, or near the bottom. People who are somewhat psycho or otherwise immune to this can profit immensely by being able to shrug off the crazy ups/downs. For people who insist on buying despite likely not handling the pressure well, I say invest ONLY what one can afford to lose, consider the money 100% lost, and wait a few years.
Yeah, I'm sure for some that would hurt but I'm downright praying for those prices again. Might go 100% into TSLA if we get there.
I miss Feb 16 so much. That and pre merger SCTY. Two biggest money printing presses I've ever experienced.
racer26
Active Member
So now there are two lawsuits that might establish a legal precedent for the value of self-driving tech.
Perhaps the earning report really was stellar with all signs pointing to a smooth Model 3 rollout. But short-term stock price reaction is a completely different animal.
Fwiw, I'm very bullish on where Tesla is at as a company right now. I don't think Tesla has ever been stronger.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Please do not follow my method of investing ~ not now ~ not ever. I just re-read the first half of Tesla's 4Q16 ER letter (car half) and I saw nothing that would suggest to me that it was anything but positive. The one comment during Elon's taking questions left the door open if not unlocked for putting more shares out there.
In case you have forgotten, it takes money to make money. Without a doubt, Tesla is no longer the baby on the block. Additionally, fossil fuels have repeatedly put a bloody (not speaking English ~ slang) target on their back. If you think I am excessive on this issue, then please pour yourself another glass of milk with your cookies and leave the room. The fossil fuel industry has whacked the poo out of solar and alternative energy sources twice now (look up your history). I cannot believe I am saying this, but it was a history program that I watched on a FOX channel on the topic. Trust me it was a total mistake or channel surfing that I came across this history of solar energy. Oh, and I already had some knowledge on the topic.
While I never dealt with what Elon/Tesla are facing now or over years it has taken to get to where we are, I had my challenge of putting new equipment on the ground in the face of fear, not just the Russians fear, but my own officer corps. I was horribly underfunded, had equipment and personnel ripped off with no regard for moral, safety or the good of the service. I did such a crappy job (apparently not) of it I was selected by the European Commander to be the S-3 (Operations Officer) as a Captain, and I did it. A senior officer (Major) was very pissed that he had to find a different job since a lower ranking officer was filling the billet. The fear my fellow officers saw was their careers evaporating in front of their faces. New equipment that required less manpower, less equipment and produced six times the firepower. That perceived fear was leveled at me. I am like a sticky bugger ~ I just kept on tickin. I had the very first GPS in 1983, communicated digitally and talked securely across our wifi intranet (not internet). Where were you?
Yesterday (22Feb17), after touching buttons, sitting in seats and looking over the colors, we ordered our (okay ~ my) BLUE MX (yes, I have to wait for May 2017). It will be hers for all practical purposes
I received absolutely nothing, no free hats (I need my hats damn it), no free mats, and no better interest rate than the next guy or gal ~ oh I was thanked for my service when I asked for a military discount. I will be asking someone nearby for a reference code, but barring that I'll be looking for a filler.
What I just told you is that some, probably rare, people like me are stretching it to purchase a Tesla. My wife and I have collected aluminum cans, newspapers and I even help old folks across the road (laugh you. . .) to earn enough money to get into a Tesla. USAA is having trouble trying to figure out how to provide insurance. They keep asking how many cylinders it has and is it a truck or SUV. I wrote and asked today if Tesla is really providing insurance(per Elon's comment last night) ~ so far nothing out there.
Every positive and negative input must be evaluated based on the background of the source.
If Elon is lying to us, I will be the first broke and pissed kid on the block; but until he proves me really wrong, I am there. It is very difficult to find the truth or anything close to it. I am cautious as well of viewing only information that fits my perspective. Again I do not want to be wrong ~ period.
If I did not take the Bull by the horns over my life, my wife of 43 years, my military career, soccer, and so on would not be a big part of my successful life. I think some of the negative comments are warranted based on the fear of the unknown. Jobs are still going away and populations are growing with nowhere to go ~ so fear will dominate most of our thinking. How many jobs am I supporting by buying a Model X? I am putting my money where my mouth is!
If you bought at 280, it is painful this evening. I struggled a couple of days before jumping in at $60 a share ~ it kept going up, but then it fell, then it went back up, but then it fell. I feel like the folks that discovered gold during the 49er days. Tesla for me is the only thing to believe in, everything else has fallen by the wayside. Me, I just keep on ticken.
My wife and I over the years argued with my brother-in-law about organics. He, a farmer in the Sacramento Delta said no one would buy food without chemicals to keep the food blemish free. Today, top surgeons will not operate to remove an egg size tumor from his neck/brain area. My sister has leaky gut. My nephew has a built in defibrillator (since age 30), and my niece has a ear balance issue. Was all that a result of living in and around chemicals? Hell I do not know, but we are still healthy. It cost me more money over the years to eat organic, but the results are in the pudding
I hope for myself I am not wrong here
In case you have forgotten, it takes money to make money. Without a doubt, Tesla is no longer the baby on the block. Additionally, fossil fuels have repeatedly put a bloody (not speaking English ~ slang) target on their back. If you think I am excessive on this issue, then please pour yourself another glass of milk with your cookies and leave the room. The fossil fuel industry has whacked the poo out of solar and alternative energy sources twice now (look up your history). I cannot believe I am saying this, but it was a history program that I watched on a FOX channel on the topic. Trust me it was a total mistake or channel surfing that I came across this history of solar energy. Oh, and I already had some knowledge on the topic.
While I never dealt with what Elon/Tesla are facing now or over years it has taken to get to where we are, I had my challenge of putting new equipment on the ground in the face of fear, not just the Russians fear, but my own officer corps. I was horribly underfunded, had equipment and personnel ripped off with no regard for moral, safety or the good of the service. I did such a crappy job (apparently not) of it I was selected by the European Commander to be the S-3 (Operations Officer) as a Captain, and I did it. A senior officer (Major) was very pissed that he had to find a different job since a lower ranking officer was filling the billet. The fear my fellow officers saw was their careers evaporating in front of their faces. New equipment that required less manpower, less equipment and produced six times the firepower. That perceived fear was leveled at me. I am like a sticky bugger ~ I just kept on tickin. I had the very first GPS in 1983, communicated digitally and talked securely across our wifi intranet (not internet). Where were you?
Yesterday (22Feb17), after touching buttons, sitting in seats and looking over the colors, we ordered our (okay ~ my) BLUE MX (yes, I have to wait for May 2017). It will be hers for all practical purposes
I received absolutely nothing, no free hats (I need my hats damn it), no free mats, and no better interest rate than the next guy or gal ~ oh I was thanked for my service when I asked for a military discount. I will be asking someone nearby for a reference code, but barring that I'll be looking for a filler.What I just told you is that some, probably rare, people like me are stretching it to purchase a Tesla. My wife and I have collected aluminum cans, newspapers and I even help old folks across the road (laugh you. . .) to earn enough money to get into a Tesla. USAA is having trouble trying to figure out how to provide insurance. They keep asking how many cylinders it has and is it a truck or SUV. I wrote and asked today if Tesla is really providing insurance(per Elon's comment last night) ~ so far nothing out there.
Every positive and negative input must be evaluated based on the background of the source.
If Elon is lying to us, I will be the first broke and pissed kid on the block; but until he proves me really wrong, I am there. It is very difficult to find the truth or anything close to it. I am cautious as well of viewing only information that fits my perspective. Again I do not want to be wrong ~ period.
If I did not take the Bull by the horns over my life, my wife of 43 years, my military career, soccer, and so on would not be a big part of my successful life. I think some of the negative comments are warranted based on the fear of the unknown. Jobs are still going away and populations are growing with nowhere to go ~ so fear will dominate most of our thinking. How many jobs am I supporting by buying a Model X? I am putting my money where my mouth is!
If you bought at 280, it is painful this evening. I struggled a couple of days before jumping in at $60 a share ~ it kept going up, but then it fell, then it went back up, but then it fell. I feel like the folks that discovered gold during the 49er days. Tesla for me is the only thing to believe in, everything else has fallen by the wayside. Me, I just keep on ticken.
My wife and I over the years argued with my brother-in-law about organics. He, a farmer in the Sacramento Delta said no one would buy food without chemicals to keep the food blemish free. Today, top surgeons will not operate to remove an egg size tumor from his neck/brain area. My sister has leaky gut. My nephew has a built in defibrillator (since age 30), and my niece has a ear balance issue. Was all that a result of living in and around chemicals? Hell I do not know, but we are still healthy. It cost me more money over the years to eat organic, but the results are in the pudding
I hope for myself I am not wrong here
racer26
Active Member
On reading the Waymo v Uber et. al suit? Holy *sugar*.
If you thought what Anderson allegedly did to Tesla was reprehensible, what Levandowski allegedly did to Waymo is so much worse.
Coles notes:
280 Systems, the company that would later become Otto was first conceived and the groundwork laid starting in Nov 2015
Levandowski allegedly met with Uber management around this time
Levandowski accessed a system containing sensitive designs belonging to Waymo he wouldn't have normally had access to and downloaded ~14,000 files totalling nearly 10GB of data in Dec 2015
Levandowski then wiped the laptop used to do this before returning it to Waymo when he resigned without warning in Jan 2016
Shortly after receiving his final multi-million dollar payment from Google, he goes public with Otto, making its existence known, in May 2016
Otto is then bought by Uber in August 2016 for $680M. Otto's most important asset Uber is buying is its LiDAR system, supposedly built in-house.
Over the summer of 2016, a number of Waymo employees leave to join Otto, each bringing with them some handful of data belonging to Waymo.
In December 2016, a Waymo employee is copied on an email from a confidential supplier that Waymo extensively researched and vetted, apparently meant to go to Otto employees, with an "Otto" board that bears a striking resemblance to a Waymo board designed to work within a framework of a number of Waymo trade secrets.
EDIT: I hope this sinks Uber. As far as I'm concerned they're a lawless corporation that has no regard for ethical business practices. They profit on the backs of their drivers taking huge risks (by operating an unlicensed taxi service), and apparently, they conspire to steal trade secrets.
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I'm not sure I follow your point about Village Idiots. As someone who is educated well beyond my intelligence, I've always been charmed by the tales of Nasreddin. My favorite is the village idiot who climbed onto the stage where the wise men were assembled to answer any questions from the villagers. He began, "ask me the questions the wise men cannot answer."I hope for myself I am not wrong here
I assume you are referring to the company creating new shares, and not Elon selling his. Keep in mind that a subsequent offering is not truly dilutive, if made at or near that day’s market price. Each shareholder would then own a pie slice that is a slightly smaller percentage of a now larger pie. It’s a wash. It’s only a problem, if a company is raising money to avoid bankruptcy. That’s not the case now with Tesla. A rapidly growing young company in a capital intensive industry needs to raise capital beyond its current income stream. If Tesla slowed its pace of growth to satisfy fundamental analysts by showing positive cash flow, its share price would deflate. Nevertheless, those who misunderstand will sell shares on a day like today. Then they’ll gobble them back up when a capital raise actually takes place as they feel forced to chase a stock at higher prices.
BTW, I’ve posted an interesting Elliott wave chart in the TMC Technical Analysis thread: TSLA Technical Analysis
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but also historically... ALL equity raises have been preceded by large runups in the stock... followed by brief drop offs... so what the hell?
So we're looking at bloated SG&A on the Solarcity side. OK. Musk has already stated that this is going to be cut and it was repeated again in the letter. I guess the cuts and synergies just haven't happened yet.
I was expecting that but I was expecting it to be balanced out by similar income in Q3 and Q4 from SolarCity; but there were monetizations in Q3 and no monetizations in Q4, and under current soon-to-change accounting the monetizations boost income. Got it.
I really hate the accounting mess which SolarCity is. It appears that the new lease and revenue accounting will straighten some of this out and remove some of the phony losses. It might be worth reviewing the common "tax equity financing" structures which have been used for most of SolarCity's leases and PPAs:
Tax Equity 101: Structures
Sale-Leaseback structure: Tesla is the lessee. Lessee accounting is changing massively. Tesla receives revenue. Revenue recognition is changing.
Partnership flip structure: Projectco, which is consolidated with Tesla, is the lessor, or the recipient of revenue. Lessor accounting is also changing, and so is revenue recognition.
Simple inverted lease: Tesla is the lessor. Lessor accounting is changing.
Partnership inverted lease: I never figured out what the hell was going on here, but it looks to me like the new revenue and lease accounting do totally weird things to this. Tesla has a subsidiary which is both lessee and lessor...
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