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back on the topic of solarcity nci's... itook a closer look at a goldman model that had been sent to me.

goldman has been modeling about 290m of nci losses per quarter. see below a limited excerpt from their report:
muppet-math.jpg
 
Over the years, I've learned that extreme emphasis on quarterly earnings and what index funds will do may lead to wrong conclusions. For example, your logic leaves out the hedge funds that may be holding TSLA in anticipation of inclusion in S&P500 and will liquidate right after.
This is true, but since the majority of Wall Streeters seem to expect that Tesla WON'T show positive earnings, that would have to be one sharp hedge fund manager to have done this already -- and yet one dumb hedge fund manager to not be planning to hold on to TSLA afterwards. I guess it might be the sort of thing one of the quants would do, if that's the sort of thing their quant model tracked. Computers can be smart about one thing and really dumb about another in ways humans usually aren't.

Most likely, such a manager wouldn't make that bet until after Q1 earnings, when he at least had a prediction for Q2 earnings. His accumulation in anticipation of S&P inclusion would therefore simply accelerate the "S&P 500 inclusion" rally. I have been expecting that the rally would involve some front-running of the inclusion.
 
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I'm curious to see how this plays out. I can't think of a company that grew as fast as Tesla may in the next 36 months. If Tesla Energy kicks in soon to its "superexponential" growth-rate (look up the defn for that word), then Tesla has the potential to grow a CAGR of 100% for the next five years. Amazon had some impressive growth in the 90's, but it didn't get to Tesla's current market cap until 2010, and its growth rate has declined from 40% to 20% since 2010. Also, in 2010, Amazon's short interest was only 4% vs. Tesla's short interest (vs. functional float ex-Elon ex-long-term-institutionals) ~40-45%. Apple's short interest was also below 5% when its stock shot up in 2004-07 while getting ready to launch the iPhone.

In short, we are in uncharted waters, and I'm not sure if banks could have hedged against the upcoming short squeeze. Hedging has limitations and is costly. Also, stocks move linearly but options don't, so you can't easily hedge option exposure with stock (i.e. the covered call strategy you mentioned). This may be why Goldman reiterated this morning its inexplicable sell rating:

Goldman Sachs maintains Sell on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target of $187.00.

This is the third time they are reiterating their sell call in two months, which I have never seen before.

In addition, their stock tanked 5% the other day. I know some of it had to do with earnings, but I wonder if if they have exposure to TSLA calls, and someone knows about it.

It kinda makes sense when I lay it out like this, but there's also common sense telling me banks definitely know more about this stuff than I do, and they are probably fully hedged. Also, other banks declined along with Goldman as well, so maybe the recent decline is just an industry trend. This is all conspiracy theory stuff, so take it with a grain of salt. What do I know....

As usual, I'm way out of my competence for comment, but here goes a shot anyway based on an Occam shave. I think everyone knows the administration is in trouble. Initially the Fed wanted to tighten interest rates but IMHO that is not going to happen because Trumps' rubber toe is hitting the rubber road of Congress and reality—both foreign and domestic. Banks, I am told, like higher rates because their profits are baked in at higher rates even if one thinks of banks as mere transfer agents. I've been frightened of banks since at least early 2008 and didn't believe Ben Bernanke at the time. Unfortunately, I was (am) too dumb to take advantage.
 
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Tesla is confident it will get Model 3 production lines in time despite strike threats

Fred L dug in a little deeper and indicated they make a high speed production line(s) for the inverters for the model 3. EM has gotten personally involved
Did some research on Grohmann....

Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century

Read forward a couple of pages.

So it looks like they had a lot of clients in the electronics and electrical equipment industry (Tesla will absolutely use all of that expertise) but they also had clients in medical devices and biotech. If some of the workers were working on projects for Pfizer, I can see how they might be worried that they'd lose their jobs.
 
I guess my question is, does the increased value from robotic assembly offset the increased cost of the glass roof?

There's a lot of suspicion that the glass roof is actually cheaper for Tesla than the metal roof.

Remember, they have in-house glass expertise now... they may even have a glassmaking facility. (Where is that? I know glassworks can be quite small, from visiting Corning.) The raw materials for glass are *cheap*. Cheaper than aluminum or steel. It doesn't even need as much energy to make it -- melting glass takes a lot of energy, but melting iron ore or aluminum ore takes a lot of energy too.
 
Banks, I am told, like higher rates because their profits are baked in at higher rates even if one thinks of banks as mere transfer agents.
Traditionally banks make money on the "spread" -- the difference between the rate they charge on mortgages (or whatever) and the rate they pay you on deposits (or whatever).

For some reason (and I don't actually fully understand why -- it's complicated), the spread almost always narrows when interest rates are lower, and widens when interest rates are higher.
 
For some reason (and I don't actually fully understand why -- it's complicated), the spread almost always narrows when interest rates are lower, and widens when interest rates are higher.

Here's another shot/Occam's shave from a simpleton. If you have low profit margins in a declining market as a shopkeeper, are you willing to cut prices still more? Alternatively, if prices are rising are you willing to risk being more greedy?

But since I now think of you as a super economist and not just a super, super historian, this post is like some of trendtraders007 parodies and another example of your refined sense of humor? "and I don't actually fully understand why -- it's complicated," my ass.

I think you got me, again.:)
 
Another article by Travis Foolium:
Why Investors Should Have Known Tesla's SolarCity Acquisition Was a Bad Business Decision -- The Motley Fool
<snip>
But if we're looking objectively at Tesla's solar business today, it's largely a bust. Tesla is shrinking SolarCity, has already shut down its solar technology in favor of white label panels from Panasonic, and hasn't shown any progress integrating solar into Tesla showrooms. And with competitors in residential solar going bankrupt, you have to wonder if Musk bailed out his solar company to save himself hundreds of millions of dollars and keep from tarnishing his impeccable reputation on the stock market.
<Snip>
 
Another article by Travis Foolium:
Why Investors Should Have Known Tesla's SolarCity Acquisition Was a Bad Business Decision -- The Motley Fool
<snip>
But if we're looking objectively at Tesla's solar business today, it's largely a bust. Tesla is shrinking SolarCity, has already shut down its solar technology in favor of white label panels from Panasonic, and hasn't shown any progress integrating solar into Tesla showrooms. And with competitors in residential solar going bankrupt, you have to wonder if Musk bailed out his solar company to save himself hundreds of millions of dollars and keep from tarnishing his impeccable reputation on the stock market.
<Snip>
When someone writes like that to bash Elon's integrity, it only reveals the author lacks intelligence or integrity. The solar roof is coming very soon.
 
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melting glass takes a lot of energy, but melting iron ore or aluminum ore takes a lot of energy too.

Its a good thing this company can make its own energy, cheaply. I love the idea of glass, but one thing that bugs me is the bezel between each tile which cant be used for solar absorption. I wonder if the glass could actually also be a concentration lens, to focus more light on the smaller solar receptor, essentially making up for the lost space between each solar cell. I guess one advantage is that the tiles can go all the way to the edge and all the way to the peak and even along the peak, with specially shaped tiles. Also, most roofs have a lot of north facing or shaded surfaces, would they just put dummy tiles in those locations?

If the dummy tiles are truly cheaper then slate or tradition materials, why wouldn't they make non-solar roofs out of it today? I think Elon noted something to the effect that he didnt understand why it had never been done because glass is such a durable, inexpensive material and is also cheaper to work with then other materials. Many roofs are a form of fiberglass and asphalt so glass is not such a foreign idea for a roofing material. I am sure making uniform slate tiles is a pain in the arse working with stone, where as the glass tiles can be flawless and pumped out by the millions with enough machinery and engineering (Grohmann).

I live in Chicago and have always dreamed of a slate or metal roof. I was a roofer in College so I have weird dreams. Chicago does not seem to be great for solar and I just dont pay enough in electric bills each month, only about $125. I guess we havnt had a real hot summer in a while and that would drive costs up a lot. I have about $1000 worth of LED bulbs that paid for themselves in 10 months. My kitchen had like 30 - 75 watt can lights, the light switch would get physically hot and my wife likes to walk the entire house turning on every light switch. Put in 30 - 15W (60W replacements) LED bulbs and I probably save on AC to just cool the kitchen as the old bulbs must have been putting off some serious BTUs. Also those can lights go out every 6 months and these will last 5 years minimum. But I digress.

I would to get solar, but im so torn between panels and tiles, but I wont need a roof for 5 years unless there is a massive hail storm. I cant believe I am praying for a massive hail storm. I can't really justify panels because the payoff would be like 10 years and I dont like to wait. At least with the tiles, I get the roof I always wanted and they last 50 years and also increase the value of the home. I guess I just need to see the final product/cost and hope for a large hail storm to help pay for the new roof.
 
Didn't copy the link:

Adam Jonas brought out some tantalizing insight:

In our conversations with trucking carriers, we believe they would be quite open to using such trucks made by new, non-incumbent OEMs as long as the performance, service and operating costs are superior. In fact, we would not be surprised if Tesla revealed large carrier and shipper partners during its truck reveal in September.
 
Didn't copy the link:

Adam Jonas brought out some tantalizing insight:

In our conversations with trucking carriers, we believe they would be quite open to using such trucks made by new, non-incumbent OEMs as long as the performance, service and operating costs are superior. In fact, we would not be surprised if Tesla revealed large carrier and shipper partners during its truck reveal in September.

Mitch,

Small point but this is from Ravi Shankar, another MS analyst which I personally find more compelling as he follows the trucking industry.
 
Didn't copy the link:

Adam Jonas brought out some tantalizing insight:

In our conversations with trucking carriers, we believe they would be quite open to using such trucks made by new, non-incumbent OEMs as long as the performance, service and operating costs are superior. In fact, we would not be surprised if Tesla revealed large carrier and shipper partners during its truck reveal in September.

Having a launch customer at reveal would be massive.
 
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