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This is true, but since the majority of Wall Streeters seem to expect that Tesla WON'T show positive earnings, that would have to be one sharp hedge fund manager to have done this already -- and yet one dumb hedge fund manager to not be planning to hold on to TSLA afterwards. I guess it might be the sort of thing one of the quants would do, if that's the sort of thing their quant model tracked. Computers can be smart about one thing and really dumb about another in ways humans usually aren't.Over the years, I've learned that extreme emphasis on quarterly earnings and what index funds will do may lead to wrong conclusions. For example, your logic leaves out the hedge funds that may be holding TSLA in anticipation of inclusion in S&P500 and will liquidate right after.
I'm curious to see how this plays out. I can't think of a company that grew as fast as Tesla may in the next 36 months. If Tesla Energy kicks in soon to its "superexponential" growth-rate (look up the defn for that word), then Tesla has the potential to grow a CAGR of 100% for the next five years. Amazon had some impressive growth in the 90's, but it didn't get to Tesla's current market cap until 2010, and its growth rate has declined from 40% to 20% since 2010. Also, in 2010, Amazon's short interest was only 4% vs. Tesla's short interest (vs. functional float ex-Elon ex-long-term-institutionals) ~40-45%. Apple's short interest was also below 5% when its stock shot up in 2004-07 while getting ready to launch the iPhone.
In short, we are in uncharted waters, and I'm not sure if banks could have hedged against the upcoming short squeeze. Hedging has limitations and is costly. Also, stocks move linearly but options don't, so you can't easily hedge option exposure with stock (i.e. the covered call strategy you mentioned). This may be why Goldman reiterated this morning its inexplicable sell rating:
Goldman Sachs maintains Sell on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target of $187.00.
This is the third time they are reiterating their sell call in two months, which I have never seen before.
In addition, their stock tanked 5% the other day. I know some of it had to do with earnings, but I wonder if if they have exposure to TSLA calls, and someone knows about it.
It kinda makes sense when I lay it out like this, but there's also common sense telling me banks definitely know more about this stuff than I do, and they are probably fully hedged. Also, other banks declined along with Goldman as well, so maybe the recent decline is just an industry trend. This is all conspiracy theory stuff, so take it with a grain of salt. What do I know....
Did some research on Grohmann....Tesla is confident it will get Model 3 production lines in time despite strike threats
Fred L dug in a little deeper and indicated they make a high speed production line(s) for the inverters for the model 3. EM has gotten personally involved
I guess my question is, does the increased value from robotic assembly offset the increased cost of the glass roof?
Traditionally banks make money on the "spread" -- the difference between the rate they charge on mortgages (or whatever) and the rate they pay you on deposits (or whatever).Banks, I am told, like higher rates because their profits are baked in at higher rates even if one thinks of banks as mere transfer agents.
For some reason (and I don't actually fully understand why -- it's complicated), the spread almost always narrows when interest rates are lower, and widens when interest rates are higher.
When someone writes like that to bash Elon's integrity, it only reveals the author lacks intelligence or integrity. The solar roof is coming very soon.Another article by Travis Foolium:
Why Investors Should Have Known Tesla's SolarCity Acquisition Was a Bad Business Decision -- The Motley Fool
<snip>
But if we're looking objectively at Tesla's solar business today, it's largely a bust. Tesla is shrinking SolarCity, has already shut down its solar technology in favor of white label panels from Panasonic, and hasn't shown any progress integrating solar into Tesla showrooms. And with competitors in residential solar going bankrupt, you have to wonder if Musk bailed out his solar company to save himself hundreds of millions of dollars and keep from tarnishing his impeccable reputation on the stock market.
<Snip>
melting glass takes a lot of energy, but melting iron ore or aluminum ore takes a lot of energy too.
Didn't copy the link:
Adam Jonas brought out some tantalizing insight:
In our conversations with trucking carriers, we believe they would be quite open to using such trucks made by new, non-incumbent OEMs as long as the performance, service and operating costs are superior. In fact, we would not be surprised if Tesla revealed large carrier and shipper partners during its truck reveal in September.
Didn't copy the link:
Adam Jonas brought out some tantalizing insight:
In our conversations with trucking carriers, we believe they would be quite open to using such trucks made by new, non-incumbent OEMs as long as the performance, service and operating costs are superior. In fact, we would not be surprised if Tesla revealed large carrier and shipper partners during its truck reveal in September.
tesla recall, seems kinda minor - Tesla recalls 53,000 Model S, Model X cars for stuck parking brakes - Roadshow
Thats what happens when TSLA is traded so aggressively by algos. It wasn't 7 minutes - it fell from 307->302 in a matter of seconds.we could put a cost of the recall on it i guess, 53000 cars x $200 labor = $10,600,000 tops. lost $1b of market cap in about 7 minutes though.
we could put a cost of the recall on it i guess, 53000 cars x $200 labor = $10,600,000 tops. lost $1b of market cap in about 7 minutes though. added a bit of exposure on the dip.