And loose out on almost hourly entertainment? I started following him for that purpose only..
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And loose out on almost hourly entertainment? I started following him for that purpose only..
It looks like the price calculator for Powerpack is no longer available on the Tesla website (at least on the U.S. and Australian versions).
Elon tweeted to Mike Cannon-Brookes in March that Tesla was planning a website update providing fixed and open pricing on all products so will be interesting to see whether a new pricing structure or calculator shows up.
Also .... wondering when we will hear about the South Australia proposal .... Given the urgency for a fix, have been expecting to see something on this soon.
Elon tweeted to Mike Cannon-Brookes in March that Tesla was planning a website update providing fixed and open pricing on all products so will be interesting to see whether a new pricing structure or calculator shows up.
Also .... wondering when we will hear about the South Australia proposal .... Given the urgency for a fix, have been expecting to see something on this soon.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm on the lookout for this too. My understanding is that there may be a bidding process vs. other providers. I further understand that it's unlikely for others to match Tesla's price. We may get further commentary on earnings call.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I couldn't see to whom you were referring so I'm assuming it's the only one I've blocked, mmd?
I'm pretty sure it's the same person as MontanaSkeptic on SeekingAlpha. Same writing style.
mmd
Active Member
Thanks for the link to most recent doc. Was there any change regarding this clause after 2013?
I can't imagine the chairman will make a mistake like that. "four consecutive quarters of positive earnings under GAAP" is quite precise, not rough wording.
The smart people figuring this out much earlier can also set up for a profit taking after the earnings. That's assuming the earnings produces a positive GAAP earning.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm so disappointed in BNEF. Their projection here is gutless BS.
Even if you accept how they are measuring cost per kWh, which is clearly not giving much weight to market leaders, the forecast is not consistent with this history. Over the last five years, they have cost falling from $800/kWh to 250/kWh. This is a 20% annual decline rate. If you follow that out just 4 years, you get to $102/kWh in 2020.
But in their infinite wisdom, BNEF pegs 2025 as the year when the cost falls to $109/kWh. They claim that this is "implied", but this is clearly at odds with the trend over the last 5 years. They are in fact assuming a 9% annual decline rate over the next nine years.
Granted over the long run the decline rate may fall, but this is not implied in recent trends, nor is this in line with the competitive pressure that the market is currently under. Tesla has made it clear that they expect to get pack costs under $100/kWh by 2020. So if you want to be in this battery market with Tesla and Panasonic, then you have to be aiming to beat this cost. If your cost is as high as $175 when the best competitors are at $100, then you are going out of business. Or if Tesla is the sole competitor at $100 with a $75 lead over the rest, then Tesla is sucking in massive capital to scale up faster than all other competitors combined. Either way, the supply that is actually ramping up is close to $100.
So what ever the long run decline may be, what is most critical is the decline rate over the next 4 years. Getting down to $100 is critical because at that cost it becomes cheaper to produce an EV than a conventional or hybrid vehicle of comparable power and daily range. BNEF knows that and it is critical to when EVs dominate the auto market. So they project 22M EV sales coming no sooner than 2030. But this is a mere 4 year past the time when their forecast hits $100/kWh, which I believe is off by about 6 years, in 2020 not 2026. So making this correction, 22M EVs would come as early as 2024. Indeed simple analyses of growth trends in EVs also say that about 22M EVs are coming in 2024.
So here is the problem for Bloomberg. They need to invent some narrative for how battery and EV advancement will suddenly begin to slow well below historic trends currently in play. What is that magic something that slows this train. They are not forthcoming with this. Rather they "imply" it with their own forecasts. If there really were a compelling narrative for why EVs and batteries will slow down, then they would be headlining such issues.
Rather what they are engaging in is gutless journalism. Instead of saying, here are the trends and this is how far they could move things in the next few years, they are backing off and fabricating forecasts that are in line with auto and oil industry projections.
Just to be clear, the oil and auto industries are coming to accept that EVs may make up about a third of new auto sales in 2030. But current trends are that EVs will reach this level of penetration about 5 years sooner. Moreover, if the ambition of Tesla and a host of Chinese EV makers are any indication, these recent trends may prove too slow. There are reasons to suspect that growth may accelerate above recent trends. The oil and auto industries are desparate not to have that narrative dominate the discussion.
Reciprocity
Active Member
This is only true if Tesla is the only battery manufacturer at $100 or lower. If they are the only ones, no one else can use their batteries so they would have to get them from the higher priced competitors. Certainly that would make it very hard for other EV makers, but not for other applications, buyers will only have the choices that are available. Now clearly, the market will react and prices will come down which goes to your overall point. BNEF would be correct in their price estimates if no one attempted to compete with Tesla and Tesla wont sell its batteries to anyone. That could actually become true to an extent. It might be hard for competitors to match Tesla and Tesla wont be selling its batteries into the market.. I know Panasonic has some ability to sell the batteries into other markets, outside of Automotive and storage?\
If the market reacts as it should, which is exactly what Elon is banking on, the prices will come down much quicker then that graph. Tesla will certainly be under $100 by the time GF1 is outputting 150GWh/Year There is no way Elon can build 100 Gigafactories, he wants and needs others to follow his lead and attempt to compete. Nothing else gets you to a fully electrified transportation and enough storage for wind and solar to replace other options.
Yep. Interesting observation. I think you may be right.
Runarbt
Active Member
However, if noone follow, you can be 100% certain Elon and Tesla _will_ build those 100 gigafactories needed, no matter how impossible it seem at the moment. ;-)
Because thats what Elon does...even against imposible odds.
Thats why I am all in TSLA since 30-ish and holding for another 10+ years. Or like someone else on a forum (SA commentary) often says; I am long, I am E-long. (Yes, that is corny) ;-)
mmd
Active Member
These two aren't related. IIRC, Model X 60D was only offered at the beginning. The cars have 75 kwh packs already. The upgrade price was originally $9000 (IIRC), then lowered to $6500, now $4500. It is sort of free money for Tesla, recouping some of the sunk cost. But the customers who paid full upgrade price or bought X75D at full price may feel cheated. The prices and battery sizes change so often, it is quite hard to keep track of these.
This is not applicable to new sales or production. So I don't really see a link between this and 2170 cells. May be I am missing your point.
erthquake
Active Member
I'm beginning to wonder if mmd is a shared account. The writing styles and tone differ significantly at times.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with your line of thinking, but why assume Tesla will only double the number of Gigafactories it'll build at a time, when they are tripling it for next-gen, even before they gain significantly easier access to non-dilutive debt?
It's clear that Tesla will channel all gross profit, however quickly it increases, into building additional Gigafactories as fast as they can. They're going from 1 to 3 simultaneous Gigafactory construction projects, then I expect six to eight more announced/started in 2020/21, then to fifteen to twenty at a time, and so on. It is possible that Tesla will have built 35+ Gigafactories by 2030 for a total cost of less than $200 billion in cap-ex. This is entirely within reach.
If the remaining large-cap companies can finance the rest, we may reach the ~100 Gigafactories needed to transition all energy used on Earth to sustainable energy by 2035.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I wondered the same with the MontanaSkeptic account on SeekingAlpha.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I don't doubt there are individuals paid to sit around all day and spew FUD
I think they have zero long term effect on SP
Short term, FUD can create buying opportunities
I think they have zero long term effect on SP
Short term, FUD can create buying opportunities
It's actually even worse for Bloomberg New Energy Finance than that. They put out a video in February of 2016 that opined the coming oil crisis in 2023 based on electric vehicle drive train parity with ICE. This was a couple months before Tesla advanced their Model 3 goal of 500k from 2020 to 2018, after which - a source told me - the author of the video said they would have to reassess their Model.
Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis
On April 13th of 2017, they published a new video that said it Electric powertrain won't be at parity until 2030.
The Road to Cheaper Electric Vehicles
And from what I've seen, they are farther along the "more optimistic" side of estimates, even when they contradict themselves.
The biggest moat, of many moats, for Tesla just may be how clueless the "experts", think tanks, financial journalists and oil and gas industry is on the potential for significantly lower battery costs than they can even imagine.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Not sure if this has been posted already: Tesla's Klaus Grohmann ousted after clash with CEO Musk - sources
What's interesting though and that we should be careful of is that even all the institutions owning relatively large parts of Tesla are extremely involved with others businesses that Tesla threatens to crush.
Like how many investors invested hundreds of million of dollars into Tesla but have billions of dollars worth of shares in companies such as General electric, GM, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Exxon, ...
Like how many investors invested hundreds of million of dollars into Tesla but have billions of dollars worth of shares in companies such as General electric, GM, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Exxon, ...
Here are two variables that I'm looking forward to in the Q1 ER that I haven't seen being discussed:
- Announcement of Gigafactory 3 site and expected 1st day of operation (95% sure this will be China with a launch date of 1/1/18)
- Announcement of Model 3 configurator being open to the public
We are starting to approach timing where either of these announcements are possible.
- Announcement of Gigafactory 3 site and expected 1st day of operation (95% sure this will be China with a launch date of 1/1/18)
- Announcement of Model 3 configurator being open to the public
We are starting to approach timing where either of these announcements are possible.
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