Does anyone know why the range is so shitty? Is their power train super inefficient or what?
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erthquake
Active Member
It's only 40 kWh usable, and it's probably pretty heavy. Perhaps the motors were optimized for towing capacity instead of range.
racer26
Active Member
It gets a little under half the range of an MS60, and I'm guessing its about twice as heavy, and significantly worse aerodynamically speaking.
I'm not that surprised. What I like about it is that it did correctly what I think the Volt did wrong. Its range extending gas engine is a small one. Depending on which specs you trust, its around half the size of the Volt's engine, in a vehicle twice the size.
I hope workhorse gets it to market quickly and it proves successful.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Styling is a bit clunky, and the interior looks as if designed by Fisher Price, but at least it's something.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I agree in principle but what if.. What if the plan is to IPO SpaceX and create a new company called something like Mars Colony 1 or MC1. Elon could then funnel is personal wealth into MC1 and contract all transport services from SpaceX. It could contract the boring company to build boring equipment for Mars and Tesla to build rovers and batteries for the boring equipment and panels for the settlement and so on.
This would be called the "Elon Musk - Have your cake and eat it part duex plan"
This would also give Elon a company to hire all the engineers and scientists that are required for putting a colony on Mars that is not related to rockets. He could then have a Bezos like plan to fund MC1 with a billion a year until there are a million people on Mars. You buy your ticket to Mars from MC1 and MC1 pays SpaceX for the ride.
It would solve a lot of problems that could even arise within SpaceX as it relates to sacrificing profits for a personal desire to go to Mars. There are other investors in SpaceX who do want to see a profit and are not as focused on the human race backup plan.
Thoughts?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Glad we agree on 2020 production numbers, on which even many bulls had called me crazy/stupid/etc. when I first made the prediction.
Note this: I think the reason why Elon said "2-4, probably 4" is because the interviewer included the number "2" in his question. Had the question been an open question (i.e. "how many do you plan to announce this year?"), I think Elon might have skipped 2, and said "3-4, probably 4." It's difficult to explain this in writing, but sometimes people in general try to be agreeable with the person with whom they are speaking, as a first step, then gently nudge the other person in the direction of their thinking in a more emotionally intelligent way rather than, "not 2, probably 4." Hope that made sense.
I agree that the scenarios you mentioned are possible scenarios, but I do not think they are likely:
1. I agree that one of the additional four Gigafactories is likely to be solar, maybe even two. 3 Gigafactories is what I assumed for my "4 million cars in 2020" prediction. Also note that Tesla can further increase the number of Gigafactories to be announced this year following the Model 3 final reveal in July if the demand for the car surges, as I expect. Finally note that the next-gen Gigafactories can arguably have a greater-than-one million cars/year production rate, which I ignored in my 4 million cars estimate in 2020.
2. I don't think distance from Fremont is an important determinant factor in how long it will take to bring the additional Gigafactories online, as they will likely include both battery production and assembly. The issues (and experience handling those issues) you mentioned that Tesla ran into in previous years is a reason to be more optimistic, not less, going forward when thinking about the time it would take to build additional Gigafactories.
I see where you are coming from on this, and you may be right. Note, however, that it just isn't in Elon's history to "wait" to execute on plans.
I would also point you to the mission statement: Tesla wants to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, and the way to do this is build as many Gigafactories as they possibly can. With a successful (i.e. on time and profitable) ramp-up of the Model 3, Tesla will be generating more than $8-10 billion in gross profits starting in 2018. This is more than enough to start 4 Gigafactories simultaneously, and cash flows in 2019/20 can be used to cover tooling costs, which seem to be the majority of total Gigafactory build cost.
More importantly, however, following the Model 3 ramp-up in 2H17 and a potential short squeeze, Tesla will be able to issue tens of billions in non-convertible debt without substantially levering up their balance sheet (i.e. net debt to market value of equity). This is a major major change in the fundamental picture that is often missed when considering how long it took to build Gigafactory 1 and extrapolating that timeline to additional Gigafactories.
Let me know when you're selling at $1,000 this year or next, and I'll be there to buy them from you.
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racer26
Active Member
Yup. Squeaky Fisher Price plastic. I don't care for it, especially in a vehicle nearly twice the price of a garden variety F-150. To my mind, though, if brought to market as is, it will be one of the strongest plug-in offerings going. So there's that.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Muaddid
Member
Well this is pretty much why EM wants to keep SpaceX private, so that he can use the profits from launching commercial satellites to finance his Mars plans. Under your plan, he'd have to personally fund that Mars company every year which would just be too expensive.
DurandalAI
Member
When a short loses money, it may not help Tesla directly, but if it helps us make $, it helps us buy/lease more Tesla vehicles!
Yes, but it is selling so well
. It has only 111 days on hand, much less than Corvette at 170 and Camaro at 177. GM has trouble selling anything much at the moment, it seems, in the US anyway. They seemed to sell Germany and the UK without losing too many billions on the deal.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
And you dont think that the current investors in SpaceX dont have issues with Elon funding Mars with SpaceX profits if Mars is not profitable? This explains exactly why Elon would need to do it. For one, he could grow SpaceX's capabilities much quicker if he went to the public markets. He would still own a huge stake in SpaceX so he could still fund Mars Colony One (MCO instead of MC1) from profits from all of his personal wealth from all of his businesses.
Man, this stuff is too funny. Like clockwork. Shorts, you need to try harder. You aren't very good at this.
From IB feed:
NEW YORK, May 3, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims
on behalf of investors of Tesla, Inc. ("Tesla" or the "Company") (NASDAQ:
TSLA). Such investors are advised to contact Robert S. Willoughby at
[email protected] or 888-476-6529, ext. 9980.
The investigation concerns whether Tesla and certain of its officers and/or
directors have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business
practices.
From IB feed:
NEW YORK, May 3, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims
on behalf of investors of Tesla, Inc. ("Tesla" or the "Company") (NASDAQ:
TSLA). Such investors are advised to contact Robert S. Willoughby at
[email protected] or 888-476-6529, ext. 9980.
The investigation concerns whether Tesla and certain of its officers and/or
directors have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business
practices.
I am long going into the ER. Here are my musings:
M3 Guidance:
Market setup: I think this will be the main show. 80% of the expectation is here, so bad guidance would by itself tank the ER, but reaffirming good guidance can by itself lift it. I think the market would be “shocked” by reaffirming shipments by end of July and say 50k for this year.
My take: This one is pretty easy actually. This is the last ER where the M3 is still perfect. If they have a late supplier they probably don’t know it, and even if they suspected they could say happy things if they wanted to. If they have line problems they don’t know it yet. So 90% chance they reaffirm good scheduling and outlook.
Financials:
Market setup: Market expects a loss of ~$0.69 per share or worse. The bar is very low here. The “everybody knows” rule is that Tesla loses money. The only time that rule has been broken in recent memory was Q3 and that was declared a low quality fluke and quickly forgotten. A in-fact loss in Q4 seems to have just confirmed it, lowering the bar even further.
My take: Deferring to Luvb2b and other smarter people. But generally speaking, they delivered a similar number of cars as in Q3, so the can obviously tweak a few knobs and show a profit. Whether they did is another question. But I suspect that the worst case is a modest loss which will be reported as a beat. I feel an in-line loss is a non-event if the report is otherwise good. A potential for profit is there, and probably necessary for a surprise gap-and-go Thursday.
China:
Market setup: None really.
My Take: Given that Elon said they would announce locations this year, and he met with that high ranking official who rarely meets one-on-one, and given that China is a big market for Tesla, and given that China has relaxed its joint venture rules, it is kind of a no-brainer that one location will be in China. They MAY announce it today. Tesla generally doesn’t announce new news in ER letters but it may come out it the call. I feel its virtually certain that a GF will be in China, only question is if it comes out today. If so that will be a big lift to the ER.
S/X:
Market setup: Expect 50k 1H ?? 2H. Everyone knows that Tesla over commits and misses.
My take: They are doing such a better job of setting goals. They said 50k for 1H and delivered 25k in Q1. It has been a long time since they made meeting delivery goals seem routine. With everything firing and no scheduled shutdown, and demand in Asia seeming robust (korea?) they could be having a good Q2. I expect they could do like 28k, in which case I hope today they guide to 26k. Guiding up would be a very firm vote of confidence in demand. 2H guidance is a wildcard. Osborning is a bit of a risk. I think they have to give some 2H guidance, so probably 50k. Interesting side note, the Q1 delivery number was exactly 25k. No way that doesn’t get revised up in the results.
Market conditions:
Market setup: Neutral on this one. Some people will perceive Tesla as already way up since they have been on a tear since Nov. But, really the only measure that we are up is from about 280 where we broke into new ATH’s. Since then we have been going up in a very measured way, not even market performing really. Also I think this entire rally is the Tencent buy. Some people will see toppy, some people will see blue sky to 380.
My take: Blue sky to 380.
Tesla Energy:
Market setup: This is worthless. Ignore it.
My take: Probably nothing. But, there will eventually be a quarter where they break out the sales, it is not insignificant (>$50M) and they give eye-popping guidance. I think there was little desire to do this until they had cells coming out in quantity from the GF. Now they do, and no M3’s to put them in, so they are clearly selling some TE products. This could be the time. This would be a big lift to the ER.
Tesla Solar/solar city:
Market setup: Worse than worthless. Ignore it because it’s hard, but it’s there bleeding cash killing the company.
My take: Deferring to the good analysis done here. But it seems the combination of 1) matching loans to the duration of the assets and 2) selling off assets for cash and 3) actual gaap income will make this a surprise, if low “quality” plus. People still don’t understand it and will be left scratching their heads if it is positive. One of a couple of tools that can be used to make the quarter positive if desired.
Lightning round:
M3 Guidance:
Market setup: I think this will be the main show. 80% of the expectation is here, so bad guidance would by itself tank the ER, but reaffirming good guidance can by itself lift it. I think the market would be “shocked” by reaffirming shipments by end of July and say 50k for this year.
My take: This one is pretty easy actually. This is the last ER where the M3 is still perfect. If they have a late supplier they probably don’t know it, and even if they suspected they could say happy things if they wanted to. If they have line problems they don’t know it yet. So 90% chance they reaffirm good scheduling and outlook.
Financials:
Market setup: Market expects a loss of ~$0.69 per share or worse. The bar is very low here. The “everybody knows” rule is that Tesla loses money. The only time that rule has been broken in recent memory was Q3 and that was declared a low quality fluke and quickly forgotten. A in-fact loss in Q4 seems to have just confirmed it, lowering the bar even further.
My take: Deferring to Luvb2b and other smarter people. But generally speaking, they delivered a similar number of cars as in Q3, so the can obviously tweak a few knobs and show a profit. Whether they did is another question. But I suspect that the worst case is a modest loss which will be reported as a beat. I feel an in-line loss is a non-event if the report is otherwise good. A potential for profit is there, and probably necessary for a surprise gap-and-go Thursday.
China:
Market setup: None really.
My Take: Given that Elon said they would announce locations this year, and he met with that high ranking official who rarely meets one-on-one, and given that China is a big market for Tesla, and given that China has relaxed its joint venture rules, it is kind of a no-brainer that one location will be in China. They MAY announce it today. Tesla generally doesn’t announce new news in ER letters but it may come out it the call. I feel its virtually certain that a GF will be in China, only question is if it comes out today. If so that will be a big lift to the ER.
S/X:
Market setup: Expect 50k 1H ?? 2H. Everyone knows that Tesla over commits and misses.
My take: They are doing such a better job of setting goals. They said 50k for 1H and delivered 25k in Q1. It has been a long time since they made meeting delivery goals seem routine. With everything firing and no scheduled shutdown, and demand in Asia seeming robust (korea?) they could be having a good Q2. I expect they could do like 28k, in which case I hope today they guide to 26k. Guiding up would be a very firm vote of confidence in demand. 2H guidance is a wildcard. Osborning is a bit of a risk. I think they have to give some 2H guidance, so probably 50k. Interesting side note, the Q1 delivery number was exactly 25k. No way that doesn’t get revised up in the results.
Market conditions:
Market setup: Neutral on this one. Some people will perceive Tesla as already way up since they have been on a tear since Nov. But, really the only measure that we are up is from about 280 where we broke into new ATH’s. Since then we have been going up in a very measured way, not even market performing really. Also I think this entire rally is the Tencent buy. Some people will see toppy, some people will see blue sky to 380.
My take: Blue sky to 380.
Tesla Energy:
Market setup: This is worthless. Ignore it.
My take: Probably nothing. But, there will eventually be a quarter where they break out the sales, it is not insignificant (>$50M) and they give eye-popping guidance. I think there was little desire to do this until they had cells coming out in quantity from the GF. Now they do, and no M3’s to put them in, so they are clearly selling some TE products. This could be the time. This would be a big lift to the ER.
Tesla Solar/solar city:
Market setup: Worse than worthless. Ignore it because it’s hard, but it’s there bleeding cash killing the company.
My take: Deferring to the good analysis done here. But it seems the combination of 1) matching loans to the duration of the assets and 2) selling off assets for cash and 3) actual gaap income will make this a surprise, if low “quality” plus. People still don’t understand it and will be left scratching their heads if it is positive. One of a couple of tools that can be used to make the quarter positive if desired.
Lightning round:
- Andrea James in IR. This makes me all warm and fuzzy inside.
- Elon cocky on twitter. I am not normally a fan of reading Elon tea leaves because he is cheerful and upbeat all the time. But it’s a small factor
- Macro’s on huge tear. Tesla is if anything underperforming.
- ZEV credits: Unknowable. High sales=profitable quarter.
- I hope they stay quiet about cap raises. Just because you plan to doesn’t mean you need to talk about it in the ER. Or better yet say they plan to self-fund.
- They scheduled the referral reward VIP event June 2-3. That includes a factory tour and "Model 3 viewing". These raise interesting possibilities for showing a complete M3 line and/or complete model 3. Could be nothing (just a regular tour with mostly built M3 line, and the same 2 prototype M3's)
I
Read the original "letter" and think it's BS. As many mentioned, this contradicts with Elon's plan. Also in the letter they called Tesla Inc "Tesla Motors Inc" and uses "TESLA" and "Tesla" in consistently. Also, shouldn't a real letter also spell out Space X's full name "Space Exploration Technologies Corp." at least one?
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's rocket company SpaceX has no plans for an initial public offering, the company's president said on Wednesday.
Earlier, rumors circulated that SpaceX was preparing for an IPO, but President Gwynne Shotwell said in an email that was "not true."
(Reporting by Irene Klotz)
From AustinEV's post #13854: "2H guidance is a wildcard. Osborning is a bit of a risk. I think they have to give some 2H guidance, so probably 50k."
Great post. Is your guidance for 2H just S and X? With S, X and 3, guidance would have to be at least 100K for 2H. If just S and X, wouldn't the guidance have to be at least 55K?
Great post. Is your guidance for 2H just S and X? With S, X and 3, guidance would have to be at least 100K for 2H. If just S and X, wouldn't the guidance have to be at least 55K?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'm glad this absurd rumor has been dismissed. The "press release" that was supposedly leaked from a hedge fund was so unprofessionally written that I figured it wasn't real.
Good point. I was thinking they would break out S/X and M3 guidance seperately, but they might combine them. That would give them a lot of wiggle room on the S/X demand. I was thinking the S/X is very happy running at 100k/year. So a reasonable and in no way bad guidance would be 50k for 2H. That would say the growth will come from M3 and we are not investing in the line, and demand is not a problem. So it will be interesting if they give combined guidance which is probably smart in case they need to do 45k or something in S/X which could be perceived as very bad in conventional times. But if they do combined guidance it wouldn't be noticeable or even important. So maybe they guide to 100k total. That would make for fun headlines. 100% growth in the second half.
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