Like many things in India this makes sense until you actually try to implement it. India is having a very hard time implementing solar at reasonable scale even though it is way more ideal for the country than coal.
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Like many things in India this makes sense until you actually try to implement it. India is having a very hard time implementing solar at reasonable scale even though it is way more ideal for the country than coal.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Nikkei is up 420 points following French election.
Asian markets mostly higher following landslide Macron victory in France; Nikkei surges 1.7%
Asian markets mostly higher following landslide Macron victory in France; Nikkei surges 1.7%
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Not many smart investors will think that's a good prospect and continue to invest once the writing is on the wall. Would you invest in GM or Shell or a gas station? The market moves a head of the curve.
From a near term sales projection the three major markets for Tesla are
1. US
2. EU
3. China
In this order due sales of cars/ SUVs/ trucks above $35,000 which is the only market Tesla is in.
My view on expansion is that Tesla needs a new auto factory in Europe next, probably followed by China and a 2nd US factory.
I love Elon's idea about raw materials in at one end and cars out the other, but that makes the most sense when both the raw materials and the end demand are in the same country. So maybe an integrated EU factory but a new battery GF in Austrialia with an auto plant in China.
After that probably some sort of plant (solar + batteries + truck) in India given Elon's mission to keep this planet inhabital for humans.
1. US
2. EU
3. China
In this order due sales of cars/ SUVs/ trucks above $35,000 which is the only market Tesla is in.
My view on expansion is that Tesla needs a new auto factory in Europe next, probably followed by China and a 2nd US factory.
I love Elon's idea about raw materials in at one end and cars out the other, but that makes the most sense when both the raw materials and the end demand are in the same country. So maybe an integrated EU factory but a new battery GF in Austrialia with an auto plant in China.
After that probably some sort of plant (solar + batteries + truck) in India given Elon's mission to keep this planet inhabital for humans.
Ameliorate
Member
Perhaps a dumb question but, what is currently stopping China from tearing down Tesla's and reverse engineering?
Secondly, Musk is set for life, why would he be upset if China started cranking out millions of EV's? They wont have the name brand or reputation of Tesla. Even if they did get to the point of competing with Tesla sales....it would be part of the mission statement. Elon wants 100 gigafactories, he didn't want to build them all himself. I would bet the pressure would be mainly on the legacy automakers, not on Tesla from increased EV production.
While an absolute monopoly may be good for business I don't think that was ever in the playbook and I'm not counting on it for my investment thesis.
I searched online, in 2016, carmakers sold 28.03 million cars in China. That's 1/3 of the world total sales. In 2016, GM sold almost 4 million cars in China.
If Tesla is allowed to produce in China without the 50/50 JV requirement, give some time, I think Tesla can sell 5~8 million cars in China per year. The announcement is likely to happen later this year.
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This report and the ones about China quite possibly changing its partnership requirement for foreign automakers may be the result of what we can think of as "Gigafactory as market entry lever". I've had been thinking of starting a thread on this, but, for now, here's what I mean,
Tesla's negotiations with governments for the site selections of the next several GFs may go dramatically beyond the ~$1B in tax abatements over 20 years they negotiated with Nevada. This is not leverage in the sense of holding someone over a barrel, but rather tapping vision on a broad scale to find win-win planning... like allowing Tesla to manufacture in China w/out a partner, or India making an aggressive policy move to an all EV future. If the invitation was there from national leadership for Tesla to suggest big ideas, I wouldn't be surprised if Elon would have discussed with these governments and possibly arrived at some kind of understanding, informal or not, on items like commitments for the purchase of years worth of energy storage and/or solar panels, or a road map of milestones needed for the approval of FSD in the host country, or a reserved place for a Tesla autonomous fleet in high congestion, high pollution population centers. Anyone else notice that more than once, when talking about the semi, or Y, in recent weeks, Elon has said under his breath, ~"and additional vehicles we've not disclosed"? I think it's conceivable that in negotiating with countries like India and China re GFs, deal making may even incorporate win-wins in future vehicle designs. That is, these countries could benefit from a Tesla commitment to design smaller vehicles tailored to their urban markets and consumer purchasing power and expectations, and Tesla could benefit from attractive incentives to build the factories, and removal of barriers to a company based outside the country to enter the market. I wouldn't put it past a guy publicly discussing tunnel systems under cities and Mars colonies to discuss broad and bold deals with these GF suitors.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Reverse engineering is the easy part. Seeing how Tesla puts its car and all the moving parts together is the hard part. There's also the software side to Tesla along with AI, autonomous driving, etc.
Despite what we may think about Elon welcoming competition, he is highly competitive in nature, I'll need him to stay this way as long as he's CEO...You can hear it in his tone regarding Apple in the last conference call, "yea they make cool phones.. [whateves]." Or when he laughed off BMW was competition, or when he poked fun of GM sending a team to study Tesla.. Elon isn't about to give a chunk of Tesla's profits away for free, that would be silly, he is afterall, a capitalist. China really has to woo Tesla with a very sweet deal for him to sign off. At this point, we see China bending towards Tesla's will, not the other way around. In the last Cc Elon alluded that China changed its policy "just at the right moment," this indicated to me that China may have been deleted as a series contender had they not changed their policies.
The pressure right now is on everyone, including Tesla to churn out those GF at a sufficient rate and stay ahead of the curve. Had China not changed its policies, it would have been a no brained for me to stay away from them until Tesla's growth is capped.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Yes, you are right. But when he gets into a business there tends to be a certain "mojo" or cockiness that goes with that business, for better or worse. Seen it first hand here in Nevada, with NV Energy and how they conveniently got the PUC to nix solar for the masses (but ok'ed a 1 billion peaker plant that will ultimately be paid for by the masses). Oh, and while we the masses shouldn't have solar, solar for NV Energy is ok. When you have backing from Buffett lots of politics tend(ed) to go your way...
From what I've seen Buffett likes oligopolies and monopolies, well because they bring in the money. But look at the airlines, which he famously decided to invest in now because they are oligopolies. They will bring in the money but at what costs? One big reason why we personally got Teslas with AP is we hate to fly. IIRC his backing of the dealerships also extends to the political arena, and getting preferential treatments in Texas, and blocking out Tesla (there's a thread somewhere on this).
Problem to me is that Buffett invests almost too well, too conservatively, maybe too by the book. And when he invests in something that company or entity suddenly gets tremendous political backing from Buffett's empire, oftentimes not for the better. Remember the key is he likes oligopolies and monopolies, as a member of the masses/consumers, this is often--usually not a good thing.
To end, this political backing of NV Energy and it's machinations has led to the a vote by the masses to rescind their monopoly. A second voted is needed to finalize. After that, we shall see if BRK keeps NV Energy as an investment. I still remember the day I read in the news that BRK invested in NV Energy. My first thought as a consumer: "This is gonna suck."
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Of course there's definitely a good reason to sell and repurchase on the dip. If you can do it...
The problem is timing the peak AND the trough is extremely unlikely, if at all possible.
But I'm sure some here who've lost $500,000 in one day will claim they can do it by looking at charts.
And their posts are free!
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
There are no dumb questions.
You can ask the same question with respect to the iPhone. Droves of Chinese companies tried, and failed. I believe it'll be even more difficult in Tesla's case due to the economies of scale inherent in the auto business.
I'm not counting on a sustained monopoly protected by patents/barriers either. I do, however, think that Tesla will enjoy an effective monopoly-by-competition (not an actual term) protected by its unmatched speed of continuous innovation.
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They already have done that. And as for learning about processes and the like, they already have invested in several companies that provide all the info they need... Lucid, Faraday on the start up side, Volvo on the other, established side. Plus, there are plenty of mercenaries willing to teach them.
Plus BYD have moved on to buses as per this article
Sales have stalled for the world’s largest electric vehicle maker
And if you want to watch the soap opera that is the Aussie energy market, ABC 4corners is broadcasting this program tonight (you may need a VPN to view it outside of Australia)
POWER FAILURE - Four Corners
Sales have stalled for the world’s largest electric vehicle maker
And if you want to watch the soap opera that is the Aussie energy market, ABC 4corners is broadcasting this program tonight (you may need a VPN to view it outside of Australia)
POWER FAILURE - Four Corners
For those interested, WhaleWisdom.com started listing companies that are holding principal on TSLA convertible debt securities, as designated by the (PRN) - refer to the snap shot below.
Incidentally, the 13F forms for Q1 are due by April 15, so we will soon learn whether large institutional shareholders changed their TSLA positions, and whether the newest large shareholder, Tencent, continued buying TSLA after getting their 5% position.
Incidentally, the 13F forms for Q1 are due by April 15, so we will soon learn whether large institutional shareholders changed their TSLA positions, and whether the newest large shareholder, Tencent, continued buying TSLA after getting their 5% position.
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You skipped the largest BEV producer in the world, which also produces it's own batteries. BYD. They also sell in places nobody else does. We have them for rent in some cities her in Brazil. It's disconcerting to see so many people here underestimate whet Chinese companies are already doing. BYD even sells Electric busses in the US, not many, but they do sell them. Learning? Sure, most Chinese BEV's are shoddy, but not all are. China is the leader in BEV sees right now and can only grow.
Reciprocity
Active Member
This is all correct and really almost meaningless to the Tesla in China conversation. No one is saying BYD is not a good company or arguing they are not capable of selling a lot of vehicles/batteries. China needs 100 BYDs to help solve its problems and Tesla in China might be part of that solution. Tesla will not be part of the solution without a fare deal and I think the Chinese see that and are willing to make changes to accommodate. Certainly they wont do that for everyone, but they will do whats in their overall best interested.
Elon also wants companies like BYD to do well. It only helps with the greater mission and also helps provide exposure to EVs where ever they are sold. I expect several very large competitors to Tesla to arise over the next 3-5 years, though to late to harm the leadership position they will have established by the time that happens in earnest. Competition is a good thing for Tesla and for us as it will continue to drive prices down. As a matter of fact, what Tesla is doing now is accelerating that pricing pressure which doesnt usually happen this fast.
Krugerrand
Meow
Don't be afraid, and don't forget the mission. Tesla's goal is not to rule the world, no matter if some would like to see that happen. There's more than enough market to go around for the Chinese to copy Tesla and sell cars. There will always be people who want the 'real deal', not the copy - even in China. There will always be import taxes, which serve many purposes. And Tesla will continue to push innovation.
It'll be okay if China copies Tesla. That's sort of the point of giving away the patents, the point of wanting to partner with others (though few have taken up that offer), and the point of advancing us as quickly as possible to sustainable transport. Tesla will still have Tesla Semis, and Tesla Pickups and Tesla Energy and Tesla Solar and Tesla Network and Tesla Finance/Insurance and Tesla whateverelseisontheagendathatwedon'tknowabout. Your shares are still going to be worth megabucks.
Be more afraid of China (or others) NOT copying Tesla.- Status
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