2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[doctoxics]

By owning them, it lowers their cost to build out the M3 line. At least that is what I think.

Elon is always thinking ahead. Perhaps Grohmann will play a key role in building and running Gigafactory2.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm happy that someone else finally has revealed Andrea James's whereabouts. It was one of the very few "secrets" of the Tour that I have been hesitant to reveal.

Andrea was very influential and helpful in organizing the Tour.

Please post the audio file!

Ok (sort of). I just noticed that you posted that you have no intention of making the audio file available.

Do you mind explaining why not?

 

[MitchJi]

The Tesla needs grohmann pdf stated that the following tests are performed after cell aging which means that Tesla probably needs less space for cell aging than @neroden calculated.

• 
  
  
  • Measurementofallrelevantelectronicparameters (SDR, OCV, Ri, current puls check)
  •  Geometricandgravimetricmeasuringofcell
  •  Vacuu measuremenn anddgradingofcell(threegrades)

 

[neroden]

I did some changes to my spreadsheet. Removing the most guesswork-y lines, and adding some more relevant calculations. Plus I reduced the ramp (we are talking about Tesla, after all). I think Tesla should still be in fairly good shape if these predictions become reality.

If anyone wants the spreadsheet, so that they can play around with the numbers, I can post it, but I do need to know what format would be desirable. (I use open office.)

View attachment 209535

I also use OpenOffice (well, "LibreOffice") and I'd appreciate it. I can read your native format.

 

[Intl Professor]

It turns out Andrea James has been working at Tesla since September in investor communications.

Taking it down to the science | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching

So wise yet so young; a national treasure. Happy New Year and thanks to her a very special person even at a distance.

 

[neroden]

Audubon has a copy. Not sure why he hasn't posted it.
Moderator Note:
Best place to answer this is right here. I recorded two hours' talking at the Tour. It's a frustrating job transcribing it: some of the quality is crisp and some is barely understandable or worse. I have no intention of releasing my recording.

That's disappointing, since Tesla isn't releasing recordings either, so far. I do feel like those investors who were invited on the tour are getting nonpublic information not available to the rest of us. Although the SEC probably wouldn't consider it material, I certainly do. :-(

I really, really hope that Tesla Motors provides a full videotape of the Musk & Straubel 30-minute Q&A....

Me too.

How do I get invited on the next such "investor" event? Sure, I know I only have 1.5 million dollars invested in TSLA, so I'm probably considered a small fish, but still...

 

[madodel]

I also use OpenOffice (well, "LibreOffice") and I'd appreciate it. I can read your native format.

LibreOffice here as well. Went from OS/2 to OS X using OpenOffice and now LibreOffice, never Microsoft.

 

[MitchJi]

Audubon has a copy. Not sure why he hasn't posted it.
Moderator Note:
Best place to answer this is right here. I recorded two hours' talking at the Tour. It's a frustrating job transcribing it: some of the quality is crisp and some is barely understandable or worse. I have no intention of releasing my recording. I really, really hope that Tesla Motors provides a full videotape of the Musk & Straubel 30-minute Q&A....although, as we have come to expect, the equipment broke down for a chunk of time. That Q&A is where my recording is poorest. Of course....

That's disappointing, since Tesla isn't releasing recordings either, so far. I do feel like those investors who were invited on the tour are getting nonpublic information not available to the rest of us. Although the SEC probably wouldn't consider it material, I certainly do. :-(

That's not an explanation for why he isn't posting the audio file. It's not like he was hired to record it, and he doesn't want the poor quality to effect his resume.

 

[Intl Professor]

That's disappointing, since Tesla isn't releasing recordings either, so far. I do feel like those investors who were invited on the tour are getting nonpublic information not available to the rest of us. Although the SEC probably wouldn't consider it material, I certainly do. :-(


Me too.

How do I get invited on the next such "investor" event? Sure, I know I only have 1.5 million dollars invested in TSLA, so I'm probably considered a small fish, but still...

I'm plankton.

 

[Bgarret]

Just so some of the less polite members don't drown out the silent majority -

AudubonB....thanks in advance for whatever you decide to share with the board from your Gigafactory investor tour. Whether raw or curated, we appreciate your willingness to share some of the Color provided at the event - but we would also greatly appreciate your observations.

Take your time, most of us plan on being here and following this stock for a long time.

Cheers.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I also use OpenOffice (well, "LibreOffice") and I'd appreciate it. I can read your native format.

Okay, cool. I think this should work:

Gigafactory output spreadsheet.zip

 

[sunhelm]

I can unfortunately relate. Once long ago, my recorder changed direction on the cassette for a split second, just as the speaker made a very bad and quite unexpected pun which got lost in the glitch but which was also the sole core content of the speech. In the end I think I had to go and interview them to solve the transcription, since DEV/NULL simply wasn't an option.

There may be a Law of Physics involved here.

No. I believe it was the law of Murphy.

 

[MitchJi]

Just so some of the less polite members don't drown out the silent majority -

That's uncalled for. I don't believe that requesting a copy of the file, or requesting an explanation was impolite. If it was it was certainly less impolite than your accusation. Pot calling the kettle black.

AudubonB....thanks in advance for whatever you decide to share with the board from your Gigafactory investor tour. Whether raw or curated, we appreciate your willingness to share some of the Color provided at the event - but we would also greatly appreciate your observations.
.

Agreed!

 

[Krugerrand]

Needed help?! Implies that Tesla can't develop their alien dreadnaught technology without grohnann's help which IMO is crazy.

Followed by:

They bought grohmann because they believe the purchase is the most cost effective way to do that.

So, um...they needed help (to make it more cost effective). Good. Glad we got that straight.

 

[winfield100]

.

I believe it's because they don't understand that electric cars are ultimately superior to gas cars. This could be partly corruption, but I believe its mostly that it's very difficult for them to understand that.
.

remember their history and knowledge of EV's
40+ years ago, beginning in the early mid 1970's there was the "ElCar", based on a Fiat 500 Chassis. 36v, 2 seat "lead sled" shaped like a cube, you could hit 35mph (downhill), then Bob Beaumont's CitiCar, "climate controled? yes. Hot as hell in the summer and freezing in the winter" 48v, 2 seat, electro-mechanical relays and a 3.5hp permanent magnet motor (with brushes), and barely 35-40mph, shaped like a wedge of cheese.
many may have this overlay in their minds and trouble comprehending Tesla and F class, high end vehicles..

 

[dakh]

Yeah. I played the SolarCity merger combined with in-the-money put option premiums and got in at various prices equivalent to $164 - $185, despite being distracted during the period when TSLA was actually at $190. It was a great buying opportunity.

I'm particularly pleased with the buys equivalent to the $160s.

No sh*t, I like seeing 200-something % gain on those TSLA1 puppies. Almost makes up for my losses on the actual SCTY stock.

 

[dc_h]

By owning them, it lowers their cost to build out the M3 line. At least that is what I think.

And keeps proprietary knowledge internal.

 

[Bgarret]

That's uncalled for. I don't believe that requesting a copy of the file, or requesting an explanation was impolite. If it was it was certainly less impolite than your accusation. Pot calling the kettle black.

Agreed!

Didn't call you out, Mitch, although you may have just self-reported.

There were many demanding and demeaning posts aimed at how much, or little, or quickly Audie reported back to the board, wasn't calling them out as much as providing some balance. When asking for something it is often considered in good form to be gracious rather than demeaning/demanding....or whining.

Not looking to get in a Miss Manners TMC discussion, more interested in what AudubonB says.

 

[dmckinstry]

Important article from a while ago and a brief quote that I suspect is very important today.



The Making Of Tesla: Invention, Betrayal, And The Birth Of The Roadster

The first time I've seen the entire history.
I'd already known that Martin and Elon parted on less than the best of terms.
Martin had been somewhat active on TMC up until a few(anyone know how may) years ago.
I hope he's kept most of his stock.

 

[dennis]

Needed help?! Implies that Tesla can't develop their alien dreadnaught technology without grohnann's help which IMO is crazy. They bought grohmann because they believe the purchase is the most cost effective way to do that.

They probably needed Panasonic's help with the Gigafactory, but with all of Panasonic's expertise Tesla clearly provided the alien dreadnaught technology that allows them to produce 3x the original production, which is a huge advantage. What makes anyone think that they could not build a M3 production line implementing alien dreadnaught technology without grohmann?

If they built such a great factory why is all of the equipment being sold again? Obviously it's not because there's no demand for batteries . Must be because they have can't produce cells at a competitive price. We better hope that the Gigafactory, which was built without Grohmann's help does better!

I don't want to get in a long debate with you about this, but I don't feel that manufacturing efficiency is currently one of Tesla's core competencies. Yes, they are working very hard to become the best at it as quickly as possible. But they are not there yet.

Why do I believe that? Lots of reasons. Less than a year ago, coincident with the plan to move M3 production of 500K vehicles forward 2 years, Elon dismissed the VP of Manufacturing and the VP of Production. According to the interview with the Audi guy who was hired to replace them, his expertise is in logistics (very important), not automation. The speed of Tesla's production line is nowhere near the best in the industry. They have been able to grow production with some improvements in automation but also by people working and being worked very hard. (Read the employee comments on glassdoor.com.) The epiphany about an order of magnitude improvement in manufacturing speed and space efficiency came from the CEO. Fortunately he is able to recognize and admit to Tesla's weaknesses and focus the organization in remedying those weaknesses faster than any other company I am aware of.

I'm very bullish on Tesla. I just don't think that they are currently the best at everything. They need to bring in outside help in addressing their weaknesses. IMO that is exactly what they have done by acquiring Grohmann, a company whose focus and expertise is manufacturing automation.