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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I was thinking about the fact that only a few of the German oem's seem to have any clue about Tesla's SMP1

That's because it's a secret. <wink wink>

I think for the other automakers, it may be hard to fit EVs in their current development cycles, especially battery tech is evolving and they may be afraid they end up with obsolete tech after years of development?

I think they are paralyzed in fear (and if they don't get un-paralyzed they are ultimately doomed) too but in a different way.

Someone here put it succinctly once - GM's (insert any big auto name here) CEO does not know how to go before her board of directors and ask for $5B to build a battery factory while at the same time tell them that $5B investment will also obsolete their motor factories (of which they have untold $$$$ sunk in to).

Mike
 
Someone here put it succinctly once - GM's (insert any big auto name here) CEO does not know how to go before her board of directors and ask for $5B to build a battery factory while at the same time tell them that $5B investment will also obsolete their motor factories (of which they have untold $$$$ sunk in to).

Well, gosh. She could just say it the way you did. That doesn't seem too difficult, it's just the truth. IF she knows it, then I must simply assume she's a coward.
 
Well, gosh. She could just say it the way you did. That doesn't seem too difficult, it's just the truth. IF she knows it, then I must simply assume she's a coward.
It's the Innovator's Dilemma. Big Auto can't self-disrupt. It's the reason the Model 3 will have no direct analogy until 2019-2022 when VW comes online, who was freed from this dilemma by their diesel scandal.
 
Important article from a while ago and a brief quote that I suspect is very important today.

The car companies had even outsourced their electronics people, he realized, since they didn't think that was a part of their core competency. They really only kept the internal-combustion-engine design, final assembly, and sales and marketing on the inside, plus auto financing, which is where they made most of their money anyway. Even styling was outsourced.

The Making Of Tesla: Invention, Betrayal, And The Birth Of The Roadster

Three very important articles:

GM to sell Chinese-built car in the United States for first time

The secret history of GM’s Chinese bailout

Edward Niedermeyer: Welcome to General Tso's Motors
 
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I can unfortunately relate. Once long ago, my recorder changed direction on the cassette for a split second, just as the speaker made a very bad and quite unexpected pun which got lost in the glitch but which was also the sole core content of the speech. In the end I think I had to go and interview them to solve the transcription, since DEV/NULL simply wasn't an option.

There may be a Law of Physics involved here.
 
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It turns out Andrea James has been working at Tesla since September in investor communications.

Taking it down to the science | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching

Good find! There was also the guy Evan Niu, who wrote a ton of rosy articles about tesla for Motley fool to finally get hired by Tesla. But he lasted only 3 months :(
https://www.linkedin.com/in/niuevan

Communications Analyst
Tesla
June 2016 – August 2016 (3 months)

Worked briefly with Elon Musk and executive team on corporate communications and investor relations.

@Mike Smith has a good chance now, with his $2600 price target up thread :)
 
http://www.maynards.com/media/components/ams/events/AAKRR101315/LiTec-Expose_compressed.pdf

This is an interesting link about a battery factory previously owned by Evonik and Daimler with a capacity of 500MWh. The assembly lines were made by Grohmann Engineering, the company Tesla bought. The PDF file highlights Grohmanns ability to build production lines in very tight spaces. This was also highlighted in a different document I saw about the BMW i8s battery module line.
This makes me very optimistic about the Tesla Grohmann relationship. I think with they're help Tesla will really utilize the enormous space in the GF to the fullest potential.

Well deserving of a bump! Great link!
 
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The good news for investors is that they can't compete unless they understand the basic concept that EV's are ultimately going to dominate the market. Unfortunately that is also bad news for the planet and humanity.

That's because it's a secret. <wink wink>

I think they are paralyzed in fear (and if they don't get un-paralyzed they are ultimately doomed) too but in a different way.

Someone here put it succinctly once - GM's (insert any big auto name here) CEO does not know how to go before her board of directors and ask for $5B to build a battery factory while at the same time tell them that $5B investment will also obsolete their motor factories (of which they have untold $$$$ sunk in to).

Mike
I think it's that they don't see EV's as a threat to their survival. They see Tesla as taking some percentage of their profits.

Well apparently Tesla thought they needed help so they acquired Grohmann.
So, what's the purpose of Grohmann partnership then?
Needed help?! Implies that Tesla can't develop their alien dreadnaught technology without grohnann's help which IMO is crazy. They bought grohmann because they believe the purchase is the most cost effective way to do that.

They probably needed Panasonic's help with the Gigafactory, but with all of Panasonic's expertise Tesla clearly provided the alien dreadnaught technology that allows them to produce 3x the original production, which is a huge advantage. What makes anyone think that they could not build a M3 production line implementing alien dreadnaught technology without grohmann?

If they built such a great factory why is all of the equipment being sold again? Obviously it's not because there's no demand for batteries . Must be because they have can't produce cells at a competitive price. We better hope that the Gigafactory, which was built without Grohmann's help does better!
 
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Somebody install a SuperCharger at RobStark's, he's got a sugar ton of the softest toilet paper this side of the moon.

A true Tesla aficionado would already have multiple superchargers installed in the driveway. Unlike RobStark's place, Papafox Manor doesn't have a sugar-load of soft Costco toilet paper, though.

superp900.jpg
 
Thoughts on your Price target for selling?
So question for all you investors... what's your game plan?

will some shares to children and grandchildren (if any, get busier kids!!!) sell a few to help pay for Mars emigration on BFR for one or more of them, otherwise maybe sell a small % when SP goes over $3,000 (If had only held my AMER -> AOL i would not have missed the 144x stock split) (AXPW {Axion/John peterson reverse split 1:400,000)
ie, keep core holding forever and a day
 
I did some changes to my spreadsheet. Removing the most guesswork-y lines, and adding some more relevant calculations. Plus I reduced the ramp (we are talking about Tesla, after all). I think Tesla should still be in fairly good shape if these predictions become reality.

If anyone wants the spreadsheet, so that they can play around with the numbers, I can post it, but I do need to know what format would be desirable. (I use open office.)

Gigafactory ramp3.png
 
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