If we are trying to estimate potential margins and gross sales, it seems to me we need to know rough sales volumes of existing roofing materials with expected lifetimes, purchase costs and installation costs for each. We also should consider that some markets (e.g. Australia, Hawaii, islands not connected to mainland power sources) will have disproportionate economic value and others will have less price sensitivity (e.g. private islands, remote housing, high end developments). Because these are local markets around the world the probable economics of Solar Roof plus Powerwall/Powerpack will vary according to local tax rules, local roofing materials costs and local labor costs.
Given the in the US domestic market roofing materials alone vary from ~$1.00 (tar) to ~$15.00 (sheet copper) with installation costs varying by enormous levels (double to triple in some areas vs others)due to local labor market, availability of specialist installers etc. The expected lifetime costs of the two extremes often favor the most extensive option because a properly designed, fabricated and installed copper roof can last a century.
The problem we face is that there really is no way to estimate what demand might be. each individual perspective depends on many factors, so a given GC can speak only within a highly specific context.
There are precise analogies, all involving category-redefining products.
- the introduction of the Tesla Model S. Nobody had a clue what demand there might be. Even Elon Musk predicted 25,000 per year. Because there is no established market for the Solar Roof/ Powerwall combination and all the previous potential comparative products were not integrated as Tesla is the predictions will be fraught.
-the iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch. All seemed like derivative products but they revolutionized their categories.
These all sold for much higher prices than people thought plausible and all attracted large crowds of nay-sayers.
So, I will be most surprised if a GC will have a clue, but some just might be surprising. I do think high end residential property developers and developers in remote areas will have sound perspectives. If you survey such categories around the world in sunny places with expensive developments I think you'll quickly see that there is a giant global market, which will be quite different than the existing Tesla consumers. Separately existing Tesla consumers should be an interesting market too, and store sales will work, but the scale will not even approach that of developers.
My off-the-cuff guesses of substantial markets include Australia (world's highest house solar market penetration ~15%), Pacific islands (hundreds of luxury resorts and housing developments), the Caribbean and close US islands (lots of small countries but lots of high end private islands that want to get rid of diesel generators and still have nice aesthetics), Southern France, Southern Spain, Croatia, just ring the Mediterranean. Then there is China, with countless new eco-oriented housing developments cities and towns, many emulating western-style construction.
Net: we will not have any remotely accurate guess of potential until about four years from now. Then Tesla will need lots of Gigafactories, while competitors will act to grow the market further and Tesla will thrive anyway. The sorts will still short because all this sounds like pie-in-the-sky unless one understands who the buyers will be.
I repeat: buy, buy, buy!!
