2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[winfield100]

Another Seeking alfalfa fail at promoting fake news about Tesla. Maybe I should subscribe to their premium authors to get better news. /sarc

send the money to me. I will gift 1/2 to charity, convert 1/4 to fine booze, (chocolat vodka and bailey's) and buy a share or 3 of TSLA and some opal rough
better value too

 

[winfield100]

This is literally not true.

fine, if literaly not true, give me an actual % number please.
(when we had our christmas party at a Tesla service center a few years ago, they sold a couple of CPO's/demo's to the attendees)
meanwhile % please 1%? 0.5%? 2%?

 

[erthquake]

fine, if literaly not true, give me an actual % number please.
(when we had our christmas party at a Tesla service center a few years ago, they sold a couple of CPO's/demo's to the attendees)
meanwhile % please 1%? 0.5%? 2%?

Tesla's Santa Barbara store has had 10-20 new cars on their lot since the beginning of the quarter. Before then, there were rarely more than a handful on the lot. When several did appear, they were gone within a couple days. Further, Musk said on the last conference call that there will always be several premium versions available as loaners when your Tesla is in for service. Those are not pre-sold cars.

 

[Krugerrand]

How do you know he didn't actually say that?

Because it's not true.

 

[MitchJi]

All I'm saying is that the people who suggest Tesla is vulnerable to competition from their deep pocketed incumbent competitors (and that true competing products are just around the corner) are wrong.

Until someone, ANYONE, announces they're breaking ground on a battery factory of even *kind of* comparable scale, they are not competing. They can't. Tesla is on the verge of producing in excess of 500,000 EVs/yr in the next 2 years. Nobody else can even come close to that number because the batteries simply don't exist.

Tesla is also about to start building 3-4 more factories in that same timeframe because aggregate demand for all vehicle types is outstripping even that 500,000/yr mark. Building a factory takes years. Nobody else has said publically that they're building one of appropriate scale to compete directly with GF1, and Tesla is already talking about GF6.

So one competitor can supply 1/3, gee I wonder what 100 competitors can do. Again, not bad just inevitable. Elon has opened a lot of eyes and minds. I hate to harp on the whole iphone thing, but there are parallels. I had my first smartphone, a windows phone with a stylus and I thought it was good and all, but I had zero clue that less then 10 years literally half the humans on the planet would have an iphone or google phone and no one would have a MS phone.. If I had known that I wouldn't be chatting with you fools, I would be on a beach without a care in the world. I am not missing it this time.

That one competitor (CATL) is the single largest by a factor of 2 over the next closest, and closer to a factor of 10 over the rest. 100 competitors of that size *cannot* pop up overnight. That's my point. Not that there won't *eventually* be competition. Obviously there will, but for now, it still requires announcement, followed by construction, of a large enough factory before it needs to be taken seriously as a risk to the valuation of Tesla.

Looking into CATL some more, it seems like they've said they plan to open a 50GWh facility before 2020, but they have to IPO first in order to source the funds to do it. Hard to tell from anglophone websites but it seems to me like this factory is not going to be completed on the advertised timeline since it doesn't yet appear to have its funding lined up.

They really can popup overnight because they have been building them for months. It seems like there are several new articles everyday about how x company is building a battery factory. You act as if no one is building anything today? LG Chem said it was going to double or triple its plant that supplies the bolt. I think Jeff Dahn said something like a Chinese company has a thousand engineers working on battery tech. They are sitting on their hands. If it's Tesla vs the world then its a fair fight is all im saying. No one competitor has a chance.

You both seem to be forgetting that all battery factories are not created equal. Tesla not only has more capacity at their Gigafactory but they also have the lowest prices. Three reasons, collocation, vertical integration, and specially developed cell manufacturing equipment that requires scale. Now with more Gigafactories on the horizon they will have a production line semi-mass producing the cell manufacturing equipment. In other words as GF1 and GF3-6 come on line Tesla's costs will continue to decline!

 

[larmor]

Title of this post:
The @AlMc crossover-
the disruption continues into new space
where Tesla is the steak of Ford's sizzle


Ford’s first all-electric vehicle will have ‘over 300 miles of range’, be affordable, and mass-produced, says CTO

"
The only all-electric cars that Ford currently sells are compliance cars built on existing gas-powered platforms. Earlier this year, the automaker announced that its first all-electric car built to be electric from the ground up will come out in 2020.
In an interview with Business Insider this week, the CTO emphasized that the vehicle will be “mainstream”:

“To get electrification volumes where we would all like them to be we have to make sure we make the affordability targets or otherwise they are going to stay as a niche item or a pure luxury item,”

The all-electric crossover utility vehicle (CUV) is expected to be available in 2020. While it is not expected to be the only mass-market all-electric vehicle at that time, several other automakers are still only planning low-volumes for EVs on the same timeline.

Also differentiating itself from other EVs, Nair is promising a longer range than the current competition:

“We think we have a technology path that will get us a 300 plus miles range and an affordable crossover utility that will be fully competitive,”
"

However, i'm sure some execs at Ford would rather make an expensive EV with large margins, than stamping out 10X more cars with lower margins.

 

[jhm]

I agree with this. Cars stay in the marketplace for a very long time. A Honda from the mid-90's could go 15 years without need of major repairs so long as it was well maintained. They usually went to the scrap heap only because they rusted out. I believe that most new ICE today can last 15-20 years if maintained, though some repair needed along the way.

Many cars new today will be around in 2035.

I think you missed the point. We were not talking about how long ICE stays on the road, rather how long an ICE models remain in the NEW car market. It seems to me that once an ICE model becomes obsolete and marginally unprofitable to build and sell, it won't remain in production for long.

So it is not necessary for EVs to replace all ICE. That is one of those gross misconceptions in the general public. All that is necessary is to make a certain number of ICE models unprofitable. Any automaker who loses profitabling in some of their product portfolio, but lacks profitable EV models to switch to, will be at risk as a going concern. Note that the bar is high: they don't just need to have EV models, but they will need profitable EV models that can be produced and sold at volume.

 

[winfield100]

Tesla's Santa Barbara store has had 10-20 new cars on their lot since the beginning of the quarter. Before then, there were rarely more than a handful on the lot. When several did appear, they were gone within a couple days. Further, Musk said on the last conference call that there will always be several premium versions available as loaners when your Tesla is in for service. Those are not pre-sold cars.

did i say 100%? no. did i say virtually all? yes.
perhaps it is "overly enthusiastic to say virtually, instead of a more exact number.
perhaps it would be better to say
"unsold inventory destined for end user" ICE dealers presently at about 4 months,
Tesla vehicles destined to end users is virtually zero to three days inventory.
I would appreciate an exact, accurate, easily understood bullet point type number, phrase what have you

 

[SPadival]

Is that guy for real. Why am I just finding this guy. If I need a laugh, this is pure gold. Its almost like the fake news guy from this last season of Homeland. Are you sure this isn't from show like Silicon Valley where they make fun of stuff like this?

Haha.. Alex Jones gets a quick shower while gatecrashing another live YouTube show (TYT).

 

[gene]

Tesla's Santa Barbara store has had 10-20 new cars on their lot since the beginning of the quarter. Before then, there were rarely more than a handful on the lot. When several did appear, they were gone within a couple days. Further, Musk said on the last conference call that there will always be several premium versions available as loaners when your Tesla is in for service. Those are not pre-sold cars.

As Tesla in Santa Barbara has such a large parking area in front and back, Tesla uses Santa Barbara as a warehouse for the Los Angeles area. I have seen serious numbers dropped off and picked up.

 

[ggr]

The unsold inventory of NEW vehicles is around 4 months economy seems to be slowing a bit, so what happens when unsold inventory goes to 5 months, 6 months, ?incentives? to just buy? rebates? freebies? layoffs? meanwhile literally every EV Tesla makes is presold with deposits, EV's by other manufacturers are selling fast, both used and new, specifically Leafs $6,500 for a 2-3 year old for a nice city car or car for a college kid or commuter. it's becoming more obvious to more folks You are living in the middle of a mini singularity. meanwhile, i gotta sell my 2003 chevy S10 ICE (parked in driveway and drives about 200 miles per year)

Note the bolded bit.

did i say 100%? no. did i say virtually all? yes.

Did you say 100%? Yes: "literally all". Did you say virtually all? No.

A single car is enough to refute your original claim, and we're all aware of many counterexamples, like every demo car.

 

[Dagger]

Made a ordered list of all the available job positions in Tesla from this page:
Search for Jobs | Tesla

Sorted them by continent/country and by number of positions.
Hope it can be of some use.

1673 United States
1104 California

• 556 Fremont
• 287 Palo Alto
• 27 Lathrop
• 25 San Mateo
• 20 Hawthorne
• 16 Los Angeles
• etc...

125 Nevada
49 Texas
43 New York
39 Florida
39 Illinois
31 Washington
26 Pennsylvania
25 Massachusetts
23 New Jersey
23 Colorado
20 Utah
16 Virginia
11 Arizona
11 Ohio
11 Oregon
10 Missouri
9 Georgia
9 Hawaii
8 Indiana
7 Michigan
6 Connecticut
6 Maryland
6 North Carolina
4 Washington
3 New Zealand
3 Tennessee
2 Minnesota

568 Europe
121 Netherlands
97 Great Britain
93 Germany
44 Canada
40 France
33 Austria
30 Switzerland
26 Sweden
26 Norway
17 Italy
14 Spain
14 Belgium
5 Denmark
3 Finland
3 Luxembourg
2 Portugal

312 Asia
210 China
33 Hong Kong
21 Korea
15 Taiwan
13 Japan
11 United Arab Emirates
7 Jordan
2 Singapore

29 Australia

• 13 Sydney
• 10 Melbourne/ Richmond
• 2 Brisbane
• 2 Chadstone
• 1 Adelaide
• 1 Perth

4 South America
4 Mexico

 

[RobStark]

GM has pulled out of the UK,Ireland,India,South Africa, Kenya(all East Africa really) markets this year.

GM sells about ~1k Chevrolets and ~1k Cadillacs each year in Japan.

How much longer will GM engineer RHD for only Japan and Australia?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think you missed the point. We were not talking about how long ICE stays on the road, rather how long an ICE models remain in the NEW car market. It seems to me that once an ICE model becomes obsolete and marginally unprofitable to build and sell, it won't remain in production for long.

So it is not necessary for EVs to replace all ICE. That is one of those gross misconceptions in the general public. All that is necessary is to make a certain number of ICE models unprofitable. Any automaker who loses profitabling in some of their product portfolio, but lacks profitable EV models to switch to, will be at risk as a going concern. Note that the bar is high: they don't just need to have EV models, but they will need profitable EV models that can be produced and sold at volume.

Ok, that makes sense, but I would still be surprised if the marketplace for new cars completely changed in just 8 years.

 

[Starno]

How long do ICE cars stay on road doesn't matter at all now.
How long did horse were used usually ? Like 15-20 years ? Yet once cars came in they didn't wait that long to replace the horse by a car...
-----
I expect people to sell their car to get an EV, and once it gets so much generalized I think the government will have to act, and agree to pay people in exchange of their ICE vehicle. They will then destroy the car, and use the materials, recycle ...

 

[DragonWatch]

Yes. And there are people who take it seriously. Many people in America have been left behind in the technological revolution, and they are very upset at the changes.

The world is flat ~ right?

 

[Mkorpal]

How long do ICE cars stay on road doesn't matter at all now.
How long did horse were used usually ? Like 15-20 years ? Yet once cars came in they didn't wait that long to replace the horse by a car...
-----
I expect people to sell their car to get an EV, and once it gets so much generalized I think the government will have to act, and agree to pay people in exchange of their ICE vehicle. They will then destroy the car, and use the materials, recycle ...

Yet, a hundred years later, there are still people on the planet who travel by horse.

 

[DragonWatch]

Interesting perspective beyond my boring you. All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spiral’ for big oil and big autos, says study that’s shocking the industries If you have large holding in ICE manufacturers, you may want to think it over or continue denying the future.

 

[jhm]

Ok, that makes sense, but I would still be surprised if the marketplace for new cars completely changed in just 8 years.

I'd be surprised too. I'm expecting about 25% EV penetration by 2025. But that could flip to 75% within just two years later. Such a pace would be devastating for any unprepared ICE maker.

 

[Mkorpal]

Interesting perspective beyond my boring you. All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spiral’ for big oil and big autos, says study that’s shocking the industries If you have large holding in ICE manufacturers, you may want to think it over or continue denying the future.

This stuff actually makes me a bit mad. It does us no service to spread these analyses that don't pass the logic of a 5th grader.