-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
dennis
Model S Plaid
IMO the price of TSLA is overwhelmingly driven by sentiment about the Model 3 schedule:
- the Q2 miss was offset by the 373K deposits
- the Q3 beat was muted by concerns that Tesla wouldn't have enough capital for M3 without a raise, particularly because of the pending SCTY acquisition
- the Q4 miss was more than offset by the GigaFactory dog and pony show confirming that battery production for M3 remains on schedule.
I expect this to continue throughout 2017. And rightly so. The impact to Tesla's finances of an order of magnitude volume increase over 3 years dwarfs what can realistically happen this year with S/X volume, stationary storage and solar panels or roofs. Which means that the inevitable small setbacks to the M3 schedule should create short term buying opportunities.
- the Q2 miss was offset by the 373K deposits
- the Q3 beat was muted by concerns that Tesla wouldn't have enough capital for M3 without a raise, particularly because of the pending SCTY acquisition
- the Q4 miss was more than offset by the GigaFactory dog and pony show confirming that battery production for M3 remains on schedule.
I expect this to continue throughout 2017. And rightly so. The impact to Tesla's finances of an order of magnitude volume increase over 3 years dwarfs what can realistically happen this year with S/X volume, stationary storage and solar panels or roofs. Which means that the inevitable small setbacks to the M3 schedule should create short term buying opportunities.
dennis
Model S Plaid
And unless their current financial situation improves the FF91 never will reach production.
Does that take into account the SCTY market cap for the period prior to the merger?
flankspeed8
Member
Because you add the value of SCTY to Tesla as they added more shares outstanding which of course makes it a larger market cap because two companies became one. Just like when they report total revenue for TSLA going forward it will include legacy TSLA as well as SCTY revenue. It is not like the market cap run-up was organic, it came from M&A. That is why the market cap is at an ATH but the SP is still $50 from an ATH. Plus you have larger shares outstanding because of the secondaries.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Yes. Tesla currently has about 161.09M shares outstanding. Prior to the merger it was closer to 150m. To execute the deal Tesla issues about 11m net new shares to acquire SolarCity. The current market cap is the 161.90m shares * shares price. In 2011 there was about 100m shares for reference.
Over time the number of outstanding shares will increase from stock grants to employees, capital raises and acquisitions. It's called dilution.
Over time the number of outstanding shares will increase from stock grants to employees, capital raises and acquisitions. It's called dilution.
dandurston
Member
lt's going to be a great day (later this year?) when TSLA's market cap (37B) passes Ford (50B) and GM (55B). When this happens, so many people are going to lose their minds raving about how many more cars F and GM make.
I don't know what FF really is going after but honestly, ELIO Motors is more successful in capturing actual deposits for their auto-cycle than FF has and probably ever will be. I am already thinking FF is done. Lucid, next up. What will they come up with next?
Kenriko
Former Vendor
There is no upside in F or GM. Unions and stupid management have seen to that.
MartinAustin
Active Member
By then, it will be abundantly clear that Tesla isn't just a car company... it will also be producing & installing solar power, and enhancing utility grids with battery storage. Can't really say that about GM.
It is always good to be cautious and in the long run we will win so long as the fundamentals of the business model are positive. Frankly, I think Elon is determined to surprise on the effectiveness of production so your assessment is too conservative. The GF tour video posted recently shows the factory is really impressive, not just in size but the small robots, other automation, and the knowledge of the staff.
Thinking of staff, a recent dinner guest said her grand-daughter, now works for Tesla and frequently with Elon Musk. When asked about her experience said the pressure was quite severe and she wondered how long her 28 year old grandchild would hold up. "But later she will be assured of a good career." Asked about her assessment of Musk, she had nothing to ad.
I remember someone reporting here that Tesla liked to hire veterans who are clearly accustomed to extremely stressful working conditions and conditioned to group work effort. One marine, a colleague who had an 18 year old die in his arms during the Korean War sent a link to a speech by a Marine general given right after his own son had died in combat. Semper fi is an understatement.
Everybody Should Read General John Kelly's Speech About Two Marines In The Path Of A Truck Bomb
When I was in high school I used to hate it when my Dad talked about how he loved to be with people who were smarter than he was. I hated it because I was in competition for grades with five or so guys who were tops. (Buzz Aldrin graduated five years before we did.) I have always enjoyed teachers who are smarter than I, not just because they knew more, and later in life have learned so much from students, teachers, colleagues, and now many of you who know and manipulate information so well and with great humor. I now feel comfortable around people smarter than I am and its not just because I'm on the wrong side of 80 with a fast-shrinking brain.
I would like to chat with or hear from Elon any time but I'd never want to work for someone that driven, however grateful I am to enjoy the fruits of his intellect at far remove. He must have a great soul to appear so normal in public, unlike the accursed toll by a talent like Van Gogh's.
This means that the Q4 financial results might not matter to much if the market gets a update on Model 3 with capex spending and or positive comments from Musk on timeline and progress.
3Victoria
Active Member
I personally think that they will likely achieve their estimates.
3Victoria
Active Member
I agree that keeping those tweets up keeps the evidence that he is deranged ... why delete the evidence? If reporting gets him banned, maybe ... but I expect he would just return with another dumb handle.
Unrelated but nevertheless relevant: SpaceX return to flight didn't happen today due to weather conditions, next attempt Jan 14th.
it was in the low 40's F (~5C) on west coast Florida earlier this morning, 34 F west of Orlando yesterday am. Windy also (was it from Florida or Vandenberg?)
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
- Locked
