Its unlikely that Model X demand is saturated. A cheaper version would sell like hot cakes.
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Its unlikely that Model X demand is saturated. A cheaper version would sell like hot cakes.
racer26
Active Member
And Tesla discontinued the cheapest version at the start of 4Q16 - a move that would not make sense if they were trying to raise demand.
racer26
Active Member
I can see growth for S/X tapering off.
After all, how long can you sustain a 50% YoY growth rate on $100,000 products which you presently own ~35% of the market for?
I do believe though, that S/X have room for growing to 110-120k annually (which yes is 50% YoY again, but not that much of an increase from 4Q16's production rates.
We've not had any evidence of Tesla lying to us before, and no reason for them to start now. If they say deliveries were delayed by AP2 teething problems on the line, I believe them.
Demand is simply not a problem. Suggesting that it is belies the evidence to the contrary.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Model S starts at $68k. S75 @ $74.5k.
35% market share in the USA
Model X has lots of room to grow, even in the USA.
Tesla starts selling in the world's 5th largest luxury car market this year, South Korea.
SunCatcher
Member
Remember the Consumer Reports analysis recently? Tesla Model S was tops in customer satisfaction, and showed how owners would buy again. Customers in this price bracket are somewhat well off. And many of those in that group buy a new car every few years. Don't forget to count in repeat sales to the same customers. What are they going to do after owning and driving a Tesla for 3 years; sell it and buy a Buick? I simply cannot believe that Models S/X are anywhere near saturation. Just my point of view.
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I for one am not interested in the P100D Model X ever. A 100D would be plenty for me, and believe it would be so for many others as well.
Plot unfortunately still missing Q4 (a bit below Q3). One can speculate about future growth rate of S/X, but data we have up to now show no levelling off.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Mercedes sold 30,000 S class sedans per year in the US for a very long time.
Same with BMW 7 series. Same with Lexus LS460.
Now imagine how much their SUV fleet are selling.. the top 10% in this nation alone represents approximately 32 million people. The top 10% of China represents 150 million people. That's a lot of customers folks, lots of room to grow.
Here in CA I can be driving for weeks without seeing a BMW 7 series, days without seeing a Mercedes S class. Gee, I wonder why?
Still noTV or internet commercials for Tesla. Demand is strong and I would be shock to see anything below 120k.
Same with BMW 7 series. Same with Lexus LS460.
Now imagine how much their SUV fleet are selling.. the top 10% in this nation alone represents approximately 32 million people. The top 10% of China represents 150 million people. That's a lot of customers folks, lots of room to grow.
Here in CA I can be driving for weeks without seeing a BMW 7 series, days without seeing a Mercedes S class. Gee, I wonder why?
Still noTV or internet commercials for Tesla. Demand is strong and I would be shock to see anything below 120k.
Tesla is also growing the total addressable market. Many S/X buyers would never, ever have considered a car in that cost bracket if it wasn't for S/X features.
Agreed... for me personally I'd never spend 100k on a car.. until Tesla came around that is. A lot of people are probably like me... willing to sacrifice for a Tesla.
It'll be the same for M3.. those in the corolla/Honda civic market would never pay 40K for a BMW or Merc.. but probably would shell out the additional money for a tesla M3
This is very true. I've owned cars for 30+ years and I'm pretty sure that my Tesla is more expensive than all of them. Put together.
erthquake
Active Member
Anybody see this?
Hawaii co-op signs deal for solar+storage project at 11¢/kWh
It's an AES project with a 28 MW solar array and a 20 MW, 100 MWh battery system. That's gotta be a Powerpack 2 system, right? AES used SolarCity panels there on a previous project.
Hawaii co-op signs deal for solar+storage project at 11¢/kWh
It's an AES project with a 28 MW solar array and a 20 MW, 100 MWh battery system. That's gotta be a Powerpack 2 system, right? AES used SolarCity panels there on a previous project.
Dennisj00
Member
Pretty much the same . . . After 2 leafs, 0 maintenance, 0 gas, placed a reservation for m3, but stretched to get a 60S.
NO regrets!
NO regrets!
Maybe not. It has a 0.2C discharge rate. It should be 20 MW/80 MWh or 25 MW/100MWh if it was a Powerpack 2 installation. (Of course, it could just be a tailored installation. It's easy to supply *less* power.)
mmd
Active Member
This could be due to Tesla being the only 200+ mile EV till now. Now with Bolt in picture, the Prius owners may choose that instead.
Plot unfortunately still missing Q4 (a bit below Q3). One can speculate about future growth rate of S/X, but data we have up to now show no levelling off.
S + X, yes. But S surely has plateaued. Cross posting my table from another thread. New markets like S. Korea may help some. (NA = US + Canada).
Actually, a Honda Civic is exactly what I was driving up until I bought my Model S back in 2013 at $92,000.
SebastianR
Active Member
Overall I agree with you last line. But my point was that any ride-sharing network will have it's peak demand times so we can't just extrapolate from the number of Uber/Taxi drivers to number of vehicles needed.
On a very different note: why are people on here being so bi-polar in this board? One day demand is falling through the floor and the other its going through the roof. The simple fact is, that Tesla has a number of markets where it is doing amazingly well and a number of markets that are - for very different reasons - difficult. I assume that will continue to be the case for a little while. And as long as a global YoY growth is there without COGS exploding, I'm all happy and content.
I don't think S and X deliveries in 2017 would be 50% higher than 2016. I'd be happy with a 20%. Rather than demand, I think the cause is still production. The possibility to increase production of the S and X this year is severely limited. Resources - space, machinery, money, and labor - would be drained by early phase Model 3. TE needs to step up and fill in the growth story until Model 3 volume production.
racer26
Active Member
Every time I call a Tesla a $100k car, someone argues with me with this type of argument.
By the time you pay all applicable taxes and licensing fees, and put even just a couple of options (like say, AP and FSD, which have very high take rates) its a $100k car.
Never mind that I'm Canadian, and as such generally think in terms of Canadian Dollars, and the very cheapest Tesla you can buy is presently $90,400 CAD.
The point is not whether its $70k or $80k or $100k, the point is that the total addressable market for cars in that price bracket is small, and Model S currently occupies about 35% of it in the USA. Unless Model S can continue to grow the total addressable market for large luxury sedans, its demand is going to plateau at some point soon if it hasn't already.
Repeat sales to the same customers already ARE factored in to the demand - some of the newer people will just buy a used one (where early adopters had to buy new because used ones didn't exist). Others who want to have a new car every couple years will buy new ones. Very very few owners will "sell and buy a Buick", but that doesn't make the total available market get bigger - those people were already factored in to the size of the market to begin with. If they bought a new BMW or Mercedes every 2-3 years, they'll likely do the same with a Tesla.
Plot unfortunately still missing Q4 (a bit below Q3). One can speculate about future growth rate of S/X, but data we have up to now show no levelling off.
Was most definitely due to Tesla being the only 200+ mi EV. This is made most apparent when you consider what the demand was for S40 at launch. If you look carefully, it was evident then that EVs with less than 200 mi of range, regardless of who makes them, exist on a very different demand curve. Some Prius owners will choose a Bolt. Most of them will choose a Model 3, because it is objectively better by most measures, and unless you're in CA or OR, you probably won't be seeing either one until about the same time.
Continuing to expand into new markets will help. S demand plateauing was expected. The market for large luxury sedans is only so big, and you can only reasonably expect to control a maximum of maybe 50% of it. Some people are die-hard brand loyalists.
X will continue to grow Tesla's overall market share, as will 3, Y, pickup, roadster, etc. Just as you'd expect a growing automaker to expand its product offerings to gain market share across all sectors.
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