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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I am more interested in the Uber\Otto lawsuits. If Uber paid $680 million for Otto, what would Waymo and Tesla expect to gain in a lawsuit, if they prove that Otto stole the technology and that Uber knowingly acquired stolen IP?
I would have to guess this lawsuit could be in the billions. It has had little press and I have to assume people are not thinking about the true value of first mover in this market space.
I have enjoyed Uber in the past, but will be Lyft if needed in the future.

Do you know what the letters patent were originally for?

hint, to promote IP piracy
 
General markets will eventually crumble short term. This presidential situation is a joke.


Nasdaq futures during the speech bounced around between +0.29% and +0.07 toward the end and now that the speech is over are trending slightly up at +0.13.... nothing exciting. (Rough numbers, I was glancing at them while listening)

Expecting a mildly positive open on the indexes tomorrow morning.
 
Nasdaq futures during the speech bounced around between +0.29% and +0.07 toward the end and now that the speech is over are trending slightly up at +0.13.... nothing exciting. (Rough numbers, I was glancing at them while listening)

Expecting a mildly positive open on the indexes tomorrow morning.

When you expect volatility... there won't be... when you don't... there will be.

Doesn't matter either way... this *sugar* is a tower of danger.
 
It doesn't include an inverter, and they're also including the cost of intallation for the Powerwall but not for the competitor (which is only 3kwh). The article is bunk.


Tesla Powerwall

Look at the image It says integrated inverter

450_1000.jpg
 
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Please read the lawsuit again. That solely the last PO would be the one for testing and would be where Tesla found out is just not substantiated at all. On the contrary.

Between March 2014 and May 2015, pursuant to the nine Discrete POs, HOERBIGER provided TESLA with several iterations of the proposed hydraulic actuation system. During this process, TESLA discovered several fundamental problems with the proposed system. For example, the system was prone to overheating, ...

...TESLA repeatedly advised HOERBIGER of these issues and attempted to work with HOERBIGER to fix them

.

So you are concluding that Musk was dishonest because he did not specifically informed analysts on the call that the company was actively working with a supplier on an issue, and continued to work with them on this issue for another 6 months after the call (till May of 2015)?

I am sorry, but this is just an outlandish leap to make.
 
Powerwall 2 has officially arrived in the UK:

Spirit attended the exclusive London launch of Tesla Powerwall 2.
Held at the Tesla flagship store in London, Mauricio and Mark from our technical team were invited to attend the launch night of Powerwall 2. Whilst the Tesla event provided a little more glitz than the renewable energy industry usually affords, behind it is a product that we really believe is worth the hype.
 
Whether to Mars or elsewhere, the space exploration goal/plan is, apparently, in the works.

From Trump's speech:

"American footprints on distant worlds are not too big a dream"

Yes, I think it is a go:

Trump advisers' space plan: To moon, Mars and beyond

The Trump administration is considering a bold and controversial vision for the U.S. space program that calls for a "rapid and affordable" return to the moon by 2020, the construction of privately operated space stations and the redirection of NASA's mission to "the large-scale economic development of space," according to internal documents obtained by POLITICO.

The proposed strategy, whose potential for igniting a new industry appeals to Trump’s business background and job-creation pledges, is influencing the White House’s search for leaders to run the space agency. And it is setting off a struggle for supremacy between traditional aerospace contractors and the tech billionaires who have put big money into private space ventures.

"It is a big fight," said former Republican Rep. Robert Walker of Pennsylvania, who drafted the Trump campaign's space policy and remains involved in the deliberations. "There are billions of dollars at stake. It has come to a head now when it has become clear to the space community that the real innovative work is being done outside of NASA."

The early indications are that private rocket firms like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and their supporters have a clear upper hand in what Trump's transition advisers portrayed as a race between "Old Space" and "New Space," according to emails among key players inside the administration. Trump has met with Bezos and Musk, while tech investor Peter Thiel, a close confidant, has lobbied the president to look at using NASA to help grow the private space industry.
 
Battery price war sees Tesla Powerwall 2 beaten even before first deliveries

How Powerwall 2 stacks up against competition in Australia. Delivery would be nice.
Tesla Powerwall 2 Vs Ampetus Super Lithium - Solar Quotes Blog

Misleading out the wazoo. Quite the gymnastics they had to do to frame it as better than PowerWall.

They're comparing on cost-per-warranted kWh (ie. Capacity * warranted cycle life). This Australian competitor wins because of a substantially longer warranty - if the operation is still around to honor it.

They also argue that somehow it's smaller capacity is a good thing, because you'll be able to fully use it more easily... Right.
 
On a tangentially related note:

I test drove a Nissan LEAF tonight. It's a nice enough car, but the range situation is just such a problem for practical usage. Had a fairly pleasant experience with the sales rep too. I shared that I'm a model 3 reservation holder, and so was only interested in relatively short term options that don't cost much. He didn't try to push me around, and he certainly seemed to agree that the 2018 LEAF needs to have the long awaited battery upgrade while remaining the same price it is today or else it's going to get completely crushed by Model 3.

LEAF pricing is all wacky in our area because of the changes to the incentive programs recently. It's left a situation where you can buy a brand new LEAF for less money than some of the used ones on the market bought under older, less attractive incentives.
 
So I was interested in how much revenue Tesla Energy or more specific the Powerwall might contribute to Q1. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like much. For Q2 however thinks look much rosier. I asked several installers from Australia, the US and Germany about when first installations of the Tesla Powerwall 2 will start.

Green Mountain Power (US):
"We have not received any details from Tesla that would enable us to design the product offering therefore do not have a timeline. Also, the technical specs have not been provided."

Energy Matters (Australia):
"As it stands, the Tesla Powerwall 2's are not in the country yet so in terms of the first installations it is hard to say. We are looking at potential install dates of around April-May time this year."

OffGrid Energy (Australia):
"The latest update from Tesla is that the shipment is expected in late April for the DC Powerwall, and late May for the AC Powerwall. This means that actual installations would start being scheduled for May and June respectively. These estimates are for our customers who already have orders in place for the Powerwall. New orders may have different timeframes depending on when the next shipments from Tesla will be arriving."

Solahart (Australia):
"We are still waiting for the Tesla Powerwall to be released and tested by Solahart Head Office."

The german installers and Tesla Store Frankfurt haven't answered yet, but I will update once I have an answer. From what I'm hearing they also expect installations to start in April.
Elon once said that he expects Powerwall unit sales to exceed vehicle sales. If we add a grain of salt, 50,000 Powerwall sales in 2017 would equal about $300M in revenue. Not bad!

Update:
SolarCity (US):
"Thank you for your inquiry. We just began our first Powerwall 2 installments late last week."

Seems like SolarCity is getting the Powerwall earlier then other utilities and local installers. The question is how much they'll be able to install before end of March.
 
Yes, I think it is a go:

Trump advisers' space plan: To moon, Mars and beyond

The Trump administration is considering a bold and controversial vision for the U.S. space program that calls for a "rapid and affordable" return to the moon by 2020, the construction of privately operated space stations and the redirection of NASA's mission to "the large-scale economic development of space," according to internal documents obtained by POLITICO.

The proposed strategy, whose potential for igniting a new industry appeals to Trump’s business background and job-creation pledges, is influencing the White House’s search for leaders to run the space agency. And it is setting off a struggle for supremacy between traditional aerospace contractors and the tech billionaires who have put big money into private space ventures.

"It is a big fight," said former Republican Rep. Robert Walker of Pennsylvania, who drafted the Trump campaign's space policy and remains involved in the deliberations. "There are billions of dollars at stake. It has come to a head now when it has become clear to the space community that the real innovative work is being done outside of NASA."

The early indications are that private rocket firms like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and their supporters have a clear upper hand in what Trump's transition advisers portrayed as a race between "Old Space" and "New Space," according to emails among key players inside the administration. Trump has met with Bezos and Musk, while tech investor Peter Thiel, a close confidant, has lobbied the president to look at using NASA to help grow the private space industry.
Coal powered rocket? Or maybe crude oil powered rocket, courtesy of API?
 
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I am more interested in the Uber\Otto lawsuits. If Uber paid $680 million for Otto, what would Waymo and Tesla expect to gain in a lawsuit, if they prove that Otto stole the technology and that Uber knowingly acquired stolen IP?
I would have to guess this lawsuit could be in the billions. It has had little press and I have to assume people are not thinking about the true value of first mover in this market space.
I have enjoyed Uber in the past, but will be Lyft if needed in the future.

I read that Otto should have stolen from Waymo, but I didn't remember that Tesla was mentioned. Did Tesla employees move to Otto as well and did Tesla make any accusations? Maybe I missed that.
 
Doesn't Tesla include inverter while almost everyone else does not?
Yes, and I would expect that their analysis would be inclusive of the need for an inverter in other systems. Regardless, the accuracy of some author's analysis is not the point. What I find interesting here is that in Australia you have a serious consumer market for home batteries. So families are gathering information and making choices. Such a market will weed out inferior and overpriced products and give insight back to battery makers about what consumers really value. The products need to evolve just as much as the prices need to come down. It is terrific at this point that Powerwall 2 is considered the product leader with some contention from another product. If Aussies are really moved by cost per warranted kWh, then Tesla can easily move to dominate along that dimension by extending the warrantee a few years. What's not clear is whether this is the particular metric that sells in this product category. So that is what a real consumer market can tell us.
 
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