Mike Smith
Active Member
One very important thing Musk told investors yesterday is that if there is a future capital raise it will be all debt. This means anyone wanting to buy a large number of shares now has to buy them on the open market.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Bangor Bob
Member
That said, we should do what we can to make it a fair place...
mutle
Member
Without the S60 no Tesla customers would be able to get incentives in Germany for any Model S, which they only managed to get a few months ago by lowering the price and making more things optional.
racer26
Active Member
Until they can buy a Model 3, which is soon.
So long as Tesla is still able to sell every car they produce without resorting to discounting, discontinuing 60/60D is only positive - its good for margin.
Mike Smith
Active Member
If they're cancelling the 60 then combined with falling battery cost MS margins are going well over 30%.
racer26
Active Member
Elon and other execs do have options that vest on one or more quarters over 30% GM... Its not like it should be a surprise that its a goal to achieve that.
Mike Smith
Active Member
So Tesla is predicting 47-50000 1H deliveries even with the 60 gone next month. This should be very good for the stock when investors find out. Remember the drop when the 60 was introduced last year.
Provided they get AP2.0 right and can recognize it. Even at 100k selling price, 5k is 5% of gross margin. I am worried about it not getting where it should have this Q and therefore missing out millions of pure profit accumulated since last Q.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Cancelling the 60 now means they're very confident M3 won't be delayed.
Great point. I got interested in Tesla as an investment after reading Jeremy Rifkin's 'Zero Marginal Cost Society'. A reasonable summary can be found in this video:
To summarize, he postulates that we are in the early stages of the 3rd Industrial Revolution and that each revolution had/has 3 components: communication; energy; transport/logistics
communication: 1) newspapers - 2) telephone - 3) internet
energy: 1) steam - 2) oil - 3) renewables (solar)
transport: 1) railway - 2) car - 3) electric/autonomous car + drones
I'm sure there is still money to be made by investing in the internet, perhaps in VR, but a lot was already made in the late 90s and 00s. However, it's still very early days in transport and energy and the fact Tesla is looking to revolutionize both industries suggests to me it could become the modern day equivalent of a combined Standard Oil + Ford.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
From the Norwegian ad: "Last year we introduced M60 as a reasonable transition to BEV. But most customers upgraded and bought S75. To simplify the ordering process we will remove the 60kWh option."
It sounds like they weren't selling many S60..
It sounds like they weren't selling many S60..
Last edited:
racer26
Active Member
Per Elon's Twitter, we're T-5 days or so until 8.1 drops. Mention of full-speed autosteer testing. Makes me think they're intending to get that update out in time to recognize EAP revenue in 1Q17.
Per Elon's Twitter, AP2.0 should have reached parity before 2017. Don't take his timeline that seriously.
jhm
Well-Known Member
racer26
Active Member
I didn't say would get it done. I said intending to get it out in time to recognize it in 1Q17. His timeline is a release on or about Mar 22. That gives room for nearly 100% overrun on his target and still fit within 1Q17.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
That idea of marginal cost of energy falling to near zero - that's something I've not been seeing nearly enough people talking about and incorporating into their thinking (in the wider economy).
Something tells me he explores that idea in more depth elsewhere, but the video was worth watching - thanks for posting!
jhm
Well-Known Member
Interesting. With a little thought you could add finance to this. There is a transition pre-industrial coinage based on metal content to bank notes redeemable in gold. So you have the first industrial revolution financed by banking, followed by financial markets and financial engineering largely disintermediating banking. Finally, we seem to moving towards a zero interest monetary system and zero marginal cost transactional system (think, bitcoin). As you move to zero marginal cost throughout much of the economy, this leaves fixed costs the main cost driver. Interest rates on financing transform that fixed cost in a marginal cost. So what really drives the cost of things is the interest rate environment. For example, a solar system produces power for about 30 years. Almost all the cost is incurred at the time of installation. So the cost of financing becomes the key driver of cost born over time. High interest rates, for example, could drive up the effective costs of solar and make it more expensive than say paying someone to keep digging up coal. So all this stuff that tends toward zero marginal costs increasingly exposes the economy to interest rates. But hey, central banks can manage currency to have whatever interest rates are needed. Thus, the interest rates will tend to go to zero as well.
Okay. I'm sure someone is going to yell at me for mentioning Trump, but I think this is an important observation that should be discussed. Has anyone else noticed that any time the market appears weak, there is any news that Trump wants people to think is incredible even if it's not particularly significant, or there are things Trump doesn't want the media to talk about, Trump is active on Twitter?
It's almost like he uses crazy Tweets to control the news cycle because his Tweets are easier to write about then legitimate problems or boring/complicated sounding things the general public isn't likely to want to read and discuss.
Even Fox News sort of agrees.
It's almost like he uses crazy Tweets to control the news cycle because his Tweets are easier to write about then legitimate problems or boring/complicated sounding things the general public isn't likely to want to read and discuss.
Even Fox News sort of agrees.
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
- Locked
