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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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MODERATOR NOTE:

I wanted to share with all forum participants the Moderator's perspective:

When the market treats TSLA as it has over the past weeks, this job is really, really easy. With inconsequential exceptions, all of you have been behaving in exemplary fashion.

Funny, that.....


And here is something for all to consider. You may take this in the context of stock prices....or of anything else.

It comes from Sam Altman, the redoubtable head of the redoubtable Y Combinator.

The hard part of standing at any point on an exponential curve is that when you look backwards, everything is flat; looking forward, everything is vertical.
Sam is also the individual that argued for owning 3-4 names in a portfolio, Tesla being 1 of them. Thinks diversification is for luddites. (Ok, my edit)
 
As with most things, I'm of two minds. I worry about Musk's goal for factories since I care about demand for workers. Here is a very bullish appraisal from our favorite site, Seeking Alpha.

Following In The Footsteps Of SpaceX, Tesla Will Disrupt The Car Industry - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Unfortunately I think that in the long run automation is going to be a very large economic disruption. Not only in the manufacturing sector, but also the service, and transportation industry as well. We will see the end of taxi drivers, commercial truck drivers, a large portion of manufacturing and even construction jobs, and a good number of service jobs especially when it comes to taking orders and payment. Long term this is going to cause a lot of economic and political problems. If you think the midwestern middle class is riled up now, just wait 10 years as the collapse of the middle class continues to catastrophic levels.

I fear for my daughter's generation, not because of any moral degradation that one might imagine most T supporters thinking of, but due to lack of employment opportunities. "They took 'er jobs!" is a joke now for those of us who are not in the skilled labor trades as illustrated by SouthPark, but seriously automation WILL take so many jobs that those of us who aren't threatened directly by automation will feel it in the lack of buying power as the middle class is decimated.

Personally, that's one of the reasons why I think Musk wants to get off of Earth. When people don't have productive things to do, they tend to do.. unproductive things. lol
 
Is this billboard still up? Are they still cancelling M3 reservations & throwing tantrums? They probably sold TSLA after Nov 9th in the low $180's .
sjm-tesla-0303-003.jpg
 
Just wanted to make a call out to @Bgarret - sitting at the Mexican restaurant at the Atascadero supercharger, when several of us did a road trip down the coast before TMC Connect - he convinced me to move out of simple mutuals and ETFs and buy some TSLA.

Looking like pretty good arguments he made, right about now :)

Thanks!

I have a similar story. Gave a friend of mine the Tesla pitch in 2015 over some Qdoba. They moved money from their mattress (yes, cash) and acquired 1,000 shares with an average basis of $202. They are now up 50% and $100K.

They bought lunch. Still say it was the best $10 they ever invested.
 
Unfortunately I think that in the long run automation is going to be a very large economic disruption. Not only in the manufacturing sector, but also the service, and transportation industry as well. We will see the end of taxi drivers, commercial truck drivers, a large portion of manufacturing and even construction jobs, and a good number of service jobs especially when it comes to taking orders and payment. Long term this is going to cause a lot of economic and political problems. If you think the midwestern middle class is riled up now, just wait 10 years as the collapse of the middle class continues to catastrophic levels.

I fear for my daughter's generation, not because of any moral degradation that one might imagine most T supporters thinking of, but due to lack of employment opportunities. "They took 'er jobs!" is a joke now for those of us who are not in the skilled labor trades as illustrated by SouthPark, but seriously automation WILL take so many jobs that those of us who aren't threatened directly by automation will feel it in the lack of buying power as the middle class is decimated.

Personally, that's one of the reasons why I think Musk wants to get off of Earth. When people don't have productive things to do, they tend to do.. unproductive things. lol

I agree. Mars might help create a sense of purpose that could combat an automation-induced societal malaise.
 
Just wanted to make a call out to @Bgarret - sitting at the Mexican restaurant at the Atascadero supercharger, when several of us did a road trip down the coast before TMC Connect - he convinced me to move out of simple mutuals and ETFs and buy some TSLA.

Looking like pretty good arguments he made, right about now :)

Thanks!
Any time Richard, easiest advice I've ever given. I remeber that trip down the PCH with @Paul Carter and @Joel fondly. Paul had to hypermill his 60 to make it to lunch....shouldn't be a problem for his Model X now. Was rolling in a rented Model S....glad I have my own now, paid for by your local neighborhood shorts. Let's see what else they can buy me. :rolleyes:

Cheers.
 
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Expect media to start comparing Tesla to GM.

Current market cap per Google Finance:
Honda $53.56B
Tesla $52.74B
GM $49.44B
Ford $45.29

Tesla is now the most valuable US automaker.

Google finance has a strange way of calculating market cap. Using the current share price and share count from google finance yields different results:

Honda 1.8B shares x $29.66 = $53.39B
GM 1.5B shares x 34.24 = $51.36B
Tesla 162.9M shares x $301.19 = $49.06B
Ford 3.9B shares x $11.38 = $44.38B

Yahoo finance seems to have it right:

Honda $53.32B
GM $51.28B
Tesla $49.15B
Ford $45.22B
 
i've reduced some more risk today, rolling strikes up even further. over the past few weeks this has allowed me to reduce $40 of risk for around 80c. while in the 270-280 range i picked up some farther out 2019 calls as part of a plan i described earlier.

despite adding 2019 risk, the reduction in near term risk means a tesla dip even to 100 or 200 would still leave me better off then when i started into the stock again in january. this leaves me a lot of powder to add more risk if a setup presents itself. my plan was to add meaningful risk on the breakout of 290 and i instead chickened out because i felt the timing was too soon (3 months ahead of model 3 launch is a lot of time)

i'm seeing a few things which make me think that a retest of the breakout level around 280-290 may happen over the next couple weeks. things like people going all in on margin is one. another is extreme moves in the out of the money calls which indicate a real surge of call buying (in one example, the jan 19 400 calls have moved from $6 as the stock went from 287-301 ($14). the delta on that option would not normally be 43, meaning most likely this is implied volatility expansion from a surge in demand. i'm also certain a lot of shorts covered and momentum players jumped in as we crossed the 290 breakout area. normally i prefer to see shorts providing supply and people selling calls, raising borrowing costs for shares and depressing implied volatility of call options. finally, my mother and a young investor i know pinged me about tesla's stock price yesterday. that means the whole world is paying attention right now, and either we explode higher from public participation or this is a likely stall point.

i don't want to seem negative, because the breakout is extremely bullish and implies a huge move is ahead over the coming quarters. i'm just trying to find a place where i can feel comfortable adding more for the move we are all anticipating.
 
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