2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Spidy]

Prüm (boß) Exciting months are behind the company Tesla Grohmann Automation in Prüm. Company takeover, retirement of company founder Klaus Grohmann, separation of old customers and claim

Of a collective agreement. The situation is described by insiders as tense and uncertain.
The term "union busting" - union avoidance - made the round. Now the turn. For this morning, a works council meeting was announced and, contrary to previous expectations, the IG-Metall was allowed to participate in the company building. Actually a normal thing according to the Betriebsverfassungsgesetz (Works Constitution Act). And then, at about 12 o'clock, Patrick Georg, the trade union secretary, joined.
By 19 April, the decision should be taken as to whether the management would enter into bargaining with IG Metall (Union).

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[aubreymcfato]

Not sure if someone has mentioned this, but I can't imagine Tesla doing Semi (or Tesla Logistics) without putting solar panels on trailers.

A very and possibly wrong calculation is this:
2,45large * 13,60long = 33,32 m^2 of trailer roof
0,75(kwh produced in a day on average per m^2)*33, 32= 24,99Kwh.

So we'd have 25Kwh produced per day by Semi that drives during the day.
Not exceptional, but not insignificant either.

Of course, I put the first numbers I found on Wikipedia, feel free to correct me, I'm bad at calculationg stuff.

 

[neroden]

Here's the thing with Tesla Semi and batteries: they don't have to be powerful enough to tow fully loaded full-size trailers.

Yeah, they do. There's an installed base problem. You have to be compatible with what already exists.

In this case, the *key* thing you have to be compatible with is the standard shipping container.

If I were designing the Tesla Semi, I'd have an integrated trailer (lots of room for batteries), designed specifically to carry a shipping container. This is actually a fairly common form of truck already. Other variations of truck can be made by using different sorts of shipping container.

 

[vgrinshpun]

And I have been saying that Tesla has the likely the lowest battery cost, but that it may very well have higher other costs. And that cost is not the only metric that determines competitiveness. Therefore that your conclusion that Tesla is the sole competitive player is wrong. Maybe we should agree to disagree because you do not seem willing to acknowledge these two assertions.

Except that there is no evidence that Tesla "may very well have higher other costs".

The simple fact is that Elon stated that Tesla has the best battery at the lowest cost. It is like painting red bull's eye on Tesla's back. With so many "competitors" (a crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions !) one would think that if anybody had an upper hand on cost, we would most assuredly heard of it. After very public Australian offer from Elon several local companies "from a crowded field with a lot of competitors" jumped right in, declaring that they can match Tesla offer on ... deployment schedule. The silence on cost - battery, "other costs", or overall cost - was deafening... And example from the Lyon Group's project which I brought up demonstrates why.

I am perfectly OK with having different opinions. But it is worth pointing out that what we have here is not just a difference of opinions, it is also a difference in availability of underlying information to back said opinion up.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The simple fact is that Elon stated that Tesla has the best battery at the lowest cost. It is like painting red bull's eye on Tesla's back. With so many "competitors" (a crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions !) one would think that if anybody had an upper hand on cost, we would most assuredly heard of it. After very public Australian offer from Elon several local companies "from a crowded field with a lot of competitors" jumped right in, declaring that they can match Tesla offer on ... deployment schedule. The silence on cost - battery, "other costs", or overall cost - was deafening... And example from the Lyon Group's project which I brought up demonstrates why.

I am perfectly OK with having different opinions. But it is worth pointing out that what we have here is not just a difference of opinions, it is also a difference in availability of underlying information to back said opinion up.

This is very interesting indeed. Tesla is not the kind of company to leave a high profile opportunity on the table. That said, there could be several reasons behind this outcome that don't reflect battery cost:

• Lyon Group is better placed to build the combined project and they already have battery supply agreements in place
• Economic nationalism
• Lyon Group accept a lower RoE on their funds and can therefore charge lower rates
• Tesla received a large unannounced order and don't have capacity
• Tesla does not have the logistics in place in Australia to deliver the combined project

Edit - After reading a few more articles, this project is not the project hyped by EM and Mike Cannon-Brooks with the South Australian Government. It appears to be a private investment. as per this article.

The storage element of the project comes at an auspicious time given the multiple blackout issues that hit South Australia over the last few months, causing a fierce national debate about whether renewables were to blame. Even Tesla chief Elon Musk weighed in by offering to build a 100MW battery to solve the crisis, which he would provide free of cost if not commissioned within 100 days of being asked. Just a few days later the South Australian government announced plans to tender for a 100MW battery, emphasizing that there will be an open, competitive tender process. Lyon Group has reportedly already shown interest in participating.

 

[-=buzz=-]

No sure Tesla will be able to charge $5k for enhanced AP to Model 3 users... maybe slightly lower.

AFAIR Elon already said that option prices would be adjusted.
I think the most reasonable calculation for the AP price on Model 3, is to use the same base price to option ratio found on the S&X (68k:5k -> ~7.5%).
So Model 3 AP should be somewhere around $2.5k

Also cost of Nvidia's computer will be substantial... I haven't seen estimates but my ignorant wild guess would be around $1k. Add sensors cost, maybe another few hundred.

The graphics processor should be nowhere near $1k.
If you check the current prices at nvidia.com the top of the line card costs 1200$ with the next down the line at 700$ (which should be the one used by Tesla). And that's retail pricing for single pieces.
If you make an OEM deal for 25k pieces a quarter you're looking at a completely different pricing structure.

And for future costs, assuming they only use the cards for "simple" computation and don't use hardware specific features, the can quickly upgrade to the next generation hardware, which is just around the corner and should provide the current performance level at significantly lower prices. (midrange instead of top-of-line)

And all of that is BEFORE any Model 3 volumes and pricing adjustments.

 

[krla]

been thinking about the take rate on autopilot. if that number is really at 75%, it makes me wonder what happens on the model 3 margins? maybe on the model 3 a $5k option only is taken at a 50-60% rate, but still... that's a $2500-3000 per vehicle average.

that's almost all profit too because the development cost with the same sensor suite is sort of included in the other vehicles. $2500-3000 is probably going to be a solid 5-8% of the model 3 price. that's a big kick to whatever gross margin would be, maybe 1/3rd the overall profits if the thing runs at 24% gross margin. pretty stunning.

have a look here
out of a big sample of M3 reservation holders even on this cheaper car 67% are planning on getting autoplilot
Tesla Model 3 Prediction – Autopilot 2.0 And the Other Most Popular Options in Each Country | Teslanomics

 

[davecolene0606]

Really won't eliminate the need. There's a reason even computer programmers are starting to unionize.... never forget that before the "industrial unions" were the "craft unions".

Tesla management needs to listen to its workers more *period*. Even if they eliminate manufacturing workers, we already know they have multiple other communications problems, including a problem with not listening to service center workers, who they *can't* replace. Even feedback from customers to front-line workers is not making it to the top. Something needs to be done.

I agree and would point out I am referring to the "classic adversarial" model. There is room for improvement (a lot) as the current model potentially can choke a company and not serve the best interests of its membership. Primary in all of this is empowering the folks doing the work by participation in desicion making and providing a stake in the outcome whilst making sure everyone has equal risk and compensation that matches that risk.

Elon has skin in the game like no other CEO I am aware of and this matters immensely when credibility comes to account. Scenarios where the execs compensation is grossly out of whack compared to everyone and include golden parachutes that derisk stupid moves and encourage short term thinking are what will kill the golden egg goose.

We have a generation of innovative CEO 's that we're engineers, thinkers and inventors be replaced by a generation of bean counters whose business is to derisk everything and maximize profit to,the delight of wall street without regard to the purpose of,the business or its long term survival. Take a peek over at Apple, Tim spends lots of time spitting out stats at Apple events and then goes on to hipe some incremental product improvement as if it's the IPhone. His focus is on squeezing additional revenue from current streams and exploiting the good will of the brand rather than what Elon does: innovate, iterate, deploy, rinse, repeat.

This must be followed with respect to folks that make Tesla what it is as well.

Fire Away

 

[-=buzz=-]

It's called team drivers, and they literally drive non-stop. One drives as the other one sleeps. Not sure how much the one driver makes when he/she is sleeping.

For larger companies, another way to optimize fixed transport routes with regular schedules, is for two drivers to meet half-way and switch trucks to return back home.
The driver will sleep at home and is with his family, and the trucks don't need a sleeping cab lowering costs. win-win...

 

[dw4ngg]

And I have been saying that Tesla has the likely the lowest battery cost, but that it may very well have higher other costs. And that cost is not the only metric that determines competitiveness. Therefore that your conclusion that Tesla is the sole competitive player is wrong. Maybe we should agree to disagree because you do not seem willing to acknowledge these two assertions.

The battery is a huuuugee part of what determines competitiveness bc it affects 1) price 2) range 3) power & 4) safety...

Now, what other factors are you referring to? Brand? Interior? ICE? Time to mass production and market dominance? Autonomous driving?

Tesla has a great brand (new and cool) and doesn't even produce commercials (yet).

I just test drove a Tesla yday, and the interior was niiiiceee, granted, I drove a fully upgraded one.

ICE is the only real factor here. Some ppl may not be keen on driving something that they're not used to. But, the change is also the definition of revolution.

Tesla has a clear advantage on scaling to mass production, bc as mentioned, battery costs are key and they have robotics solutions along almost the entire production line. Plus, they have a gigafactory, maybe 2-3 more soon. They will undoubtedly capture the initial market share of mass produced EVs once the Model 3 begins to sell. It's irrelevant in my mind that ICE companies can mass produce ICE cars quickly or better, bc that is a separate topic of discussion - EV vs. ICE. What will matter is how quickly these ICE companies can produce similar performance and quality and aesthetically pleasing type EVs that will actually take Tesla's market share. Right now, there's no viable comparison for the Model S and X. You will see the competitive advantage, however, once Model 3 steals share from the Leaf, Bolt, etc.

I don't know who has a clear advantage in autonomous driving, so I'll concede Tesla may not have the competitive advantage here.

BUT, barring a complete meltdown in the EV strat, or humans deciding that driving these archaic machines that spit junk into our earth's atmosphere is still the way to go, I would say Tesla has developed at least somewhat of a competitive advantage over others.

 

[Reciprocity]

The battery is a huuuugee part of what determines competitiveness bc it affects 1) price 2) range & 3) power...

Safety is probably right up there with those 3. Price must dominate all because you can either afford it or not. But safety might even trump range.

 

[dw4ngg]

Safety is probably right up there with those 3. Price must dominate all because you can either afford it or not. But safety might even trump range.

Thanks forgot to include that...

 

[generalenthu]

Does anybody here know more about why SolarCity bonds are now getting discharged by Tesla. Word is they are paying in full the principal and the interest that would have accrued over the life of the bonds in full now. Tesla's cost to borrow is obviously not zero. So wondering why they are doing this.

Tesla just discharged [most of] the outstanding Solar City Bonds! • r/teslamotors

 

[brian45011]

Interesting new developments in LIDAR tech:

Luminar reveals sensors that could make self-driving cars safer than human

Thanks for the link. If SCTY/TSLA buys outfits like Zep, Silveo, and Grohmann, why not Luminar? LIDAR for semis

 

[generalenthu]

Thanks for the link. If SCTY/TSLA buys outfits like Zep, Silveo, and Grohmann, why not Luminar? LIDAR for semis

Every time I hear positive news about lidar, I have to remind myself that it doesn't work in rain. Which is why Elon doesn't care much for it

 

[WarpedOne]

LIDAR is lasers, lasers are masculine and sexy.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Does anybody here know more about why SolarCity bonds are now getting discharged by Tesla. Word is they are paying in full the principal and the interest that would have accrued over the life of the bonds in full now. Tesla's cost to borrow is obviously not zero. So wondering why they are doing this.

Tesla just discharged [most of] the outstanding Solar City Bonds! • r/teslamotors

Maybe they're moving all solar city liabilities into a new financing vessel to simplify their dept structures.
Although even if the new financing has significantly lower interest rates it doesn't make much sense if they still paid the full interest over the whole intended period.

 

[schonelucht]

The battery is a huuuugee part of what determines competitiveness bc it affects 1) price 2) range 3) power & 4) safety...

Now, what other factors are you referring to? Brand? Interior? ICE? Time to mass production and market dominance? Autonomous driving?

We were talking about utility scale battery storage, not electric cars. I invite you to read the full back and forth : I already listed a non exhaustive list of other factors earlier in the thread.

 

[scaesare]

(ref. Thumper's post #11473)
I hope Luminar's LIDAR works, or that others in that sector bring such improvements to fruition.

A question for those knowledgeable: what in blazes was Roy G. Biv doing in those pictures, both from Luminar's provided pix in the TechCrunch article and from the referenced "What is Lidar" link? I cannot fathom that usefulness.

And why the shadows - angled in different ways - of such items as lampposts?

At least in the Luminar pics look like it could be a distance map given the way the color bands are oriented.

 

[AudubonB]

more on Luminar's LIDAR -

The TechCrunch article's photo with CTO Eichenholz also suggests that each of those separately-colored lines is _X_ meters away and, as had been obvious in the other photos and the video, objects at those distances emerge in those particular colors.

That I understood. I was being my usual disingenuous self with the RoyGBiv question. What I'm wondering is why? It seems to me that

• for the human viewer, that is a potential distraction. Is one supposed to think "Ah ha! That is a purple cow. So, since I'm traveling at __xx__ mph, I have, ummm....is it 2.9 seconds or 9.2 seconds before collision? Now where did I put that color collision chart?

• for the slightly faster Nvidia ekaprocessor performing the necessary calculations to maneuver the autonomous vehicle, are these colored photons necessary? And surely there also is the additional "Is that the 10m-away green or is it the 40m-away green of the identical wavelength" question, although in truth I'm sure the engineers already addressed that - somehow.

• Rain as the Achilles heel of LIDAR: : the TechCrunch article asserted these sensors "....work in inclement weather, through fog and dust." Has anyone any way to reinforce or challenge those assertions?