2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mmd]

Something wrong with the guys Model X that you quoted. At 65 I tend to get right at rated range which is 315 Wh per mile. As far as big rigs go, I highly suggest platooning because you can set your TACC safely following a big rig and get down to 250 wh per mile in a Model X. Now imagine if the they could cruse within feet of each other and have their braking systems linked.

I have never towed anything so I cant speak to that.

Edit: Never mind, I see 575 wh/mile was while towing. I am sure platooning would still be very helpful

Here is Edmunds' towing experience with Model X, with a mere 1256 lb feather weight aerodynamic trailer. They found out quickly that the super chargers are not ready to accommodate vehicles with trailers. Read the charge times in the article: almost 2 hours for 200-230 miles of range.
Range and Charging While Towing a Trailer - 2016 Tesla Model X Long-Term Road Test

My trip to Flagstaff is complete. I successfully towed a teardrop trailer over 1,000 miles behind our 2016 Tesla Model X crossover SUV.

I'm not sure I ever want to do it again.

I can't blame the excellent Off the Grid Rentals trailer, a well-balanced rig that tracked straight and true throughout. Its feathery 1,260-pound weight was less than half the 3,500-pound rated towing capacity of our Model X Signature. Heck, this trailer weighs only about one-fourth of the 5,000 pounds a Model X equipped with 20-inch tires can tow.

And the Model X itself served up an abundance of power, stability and grade-climbing ability. The driving experience was effortless. Effortless, that is, until it came time to charge the blasted thing. That's where this towing exercise turned into a real drag.

The problems are numerous: towing speed, range, recharge time and the physical incompatibility of Superchargers when you roll up with a trailer. The first three issues are interrelated. That last one stands alone.

Unless you're merely towing across town, these issues conspire to make the Model X a very poor tow vehicle.

The semi trucks cannot be charged at home. No one has that big a garage. If someone has it by any chance, (s)he doesn't need to drive a semi for a living Most people can't even park their work trucks where they live, due to various restrictions. Unlike electric cars, all charging for semis will happen at the super chargers.
I will believe it when I see the super chargers being modified to accommodate semi trucks.

 

[Turing]

I get the impression it's a bit of a mess over there. Their lead dog actually left and they sued him. Anyone who talks about level 4+ being close is bluffing or deluded. The game is to show a demo, get a lot of money, and ignore the fact that going from demo to reality is the hard part.

Their non technical lead left the AP program and is being sued for IP theft among other things. They replaced him with the top software guy from Apple, who has a stellar reputation as both a world class programmer but also a great team manager.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Their non technical lead left the AP program and is being sued for IP theft among other things. They replaced him with the top software guy from Apple, who has a stellar reputation as both a world class programmer but also a great team manager.

Chris Lattner is indeed a world class programmer and a great team manager. On the other hand he was in no way "the top software guy" at Apple, just one of their many top software guys. He's an expert at languages and developer tools. I doubt he has more than a passing familiarity with AI or autopilot software. And it is worth noting that the software he had responsibility for at Apple was not customer facing, nor safety critical. I believe this will be a whole new experience for him. Let's hope he's up to it. For my part, I believe he will be. But I am not surprised that we are seeing a variety of transition-related delays.

 

[AcesDealt]

Their non technical lead left the AP program and is being sued for IP theft among other things. They replaced him with the top software guy from Apple, who has a stellar reputation as both a world class programmer but also a great team manager.

Hmm. I tend to think you are challenging my assertion that this whole episode is a sign of problems in that division, but you avoided explicitly saying it, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

 

[AcesDealt]

Chris Lattner is indeed a world class programmer and a great team manager. On the other hand he was in no way "the top software guy" at Apple, just one of their many top software guys. He's an expert at languages and developer tools. I doubt he has more than a passing familiarity with AI or autopilot software. And it is worth noting that the software he had responsibility for at Apple was not customer facing, nor safety critical. I believe this will be a whole new experience for him. Let's hope he's up to it. For my part, I believe he will be. But I am not surprised that we are seeing a variety of transition-related delays.

Says the guy from Cupertino.. (is that you, Tim?)

(anybody else noticed just how many people here are from California, and\or are owners and\or are technology involved -- not entirely clear if that's a good sign or not)

 

[kenliles]

anybody else noticed just how many people here are from California

No, but have noticed one is from 'Here'

 

[dennis]

I drive the speed limit in my Priuses and yes, there are some people who want me to go faster. I see that as their problem, not mine.

It's your problem if you are in the left lane on a freeway and drivers who want to pass are forced to do it in the lane(s) to your right.

 

[AcesDealt]

No, but have noticed one is from 'Here'

Doesn't seem to matter where I go, that never changes.

 

[MitchJi]

Classic arguments in favor of obtaining an outside agent to bargain on your behalf apply where a classic manufacturing operation exists. Tesla is in the process of morphing this into the "Dreadnought" which will again change the paradigm and is changing the need for a classic labor/mngmt adversarial bargaining arrangement.

I don't think that addresses the potential problem (if there is a problem, which I doubt).

If the employee's are not happy do you think it's acceptable to tell them to wait 1-2 years for a solution?

Elon said that when the AD is completed that the number of employees at Fremont would increase (decrease per cars built), and they would pay more. I hope that Tesla plans to do everything possible to use the existing employee's for those jobs but I don't think that during an unrelated labor dispute is a good time to raise the issue.

I wouldn't put it past Tesla to reduce the price of the EAP and FSD software for the Model 3 to increase the take rate -- as you point out, there is no incremental cost to Tesla to provide access to the software; as a result Tesla needs to balance getting the price just right to maximize revenues through the combination of volume of takers and price paid. Just my $0.02 of course.

I agree and I also believe that at the same time that they will reduce the price on the S-X.

 

[Ulmo]

The plan has been pretty clear. Very expensive short run roadster, then high end $100k sedan to fund the next step. Some how they slipped the X in as it wasn't part of the original plan. Then a mass market car.

One reason I can see why a truck wouldn't have come before the 3 is the battery requirement would be much larger then a small car. People want to be able to tow a boat or other large stuff with a truck. Batter is going to have to be 130kwh or larger to be able to tow a large trailer 400 miles.

Ok. That's a fair response. But I think they could have just jammed more batteries in there and said heck with the acceleration efficiency. There's creative ways to deal with the problems in the early stages: swappable batteries (for instance, one big honking 150kWh max battery capacity made up of 3 swappable batteries under the truck, can have all three loaded, or only two (front and back) or one (center), and they can charge some at home while driving, with on-road exchange markets (similar to gas stations), and power outlets for batteries they drop in construction sites for temporary power, and stuff like that). To me, they seem sort of stuck in the "Model X fits on the Model S" pigeon holing they've been doing, without any effort to expand the manufacturing floor to build larger units.

That will eventually be solved, though.

I still don't understand why they don't have generalized robots working on in-place cars with flowing parts coming to the car, then the only size limit is the in-place work area. But that's one thing I've never worked on so don't have experience on.

 

[EinSV]

"Stormy weather in Shortville" tweet followed by an early-ish ER (like the Q3 2016 ER), plus an announcement for a September Semi reveal and July Model 3 final unveil. Solar Roofs scheduled to come out in the next few weeks, and high probability of positive TE surprises over the next few months. And shorts already under pressure.

Interesting times ahead ....

 

[N5329K]

It's your problem if you are in the left lane on a freeway and drivers who want to pass are forced to do it in the lane(s) to your right.

Indeed. I agree. That's why I only use the left lane for passing or the odd left exit ramp. Much more relaxing to let everyone else do the work.
About using the new Tesla Semi as an inhouse transport/logistics service, it would require a very close look at how the current system works, who gets paid and how they get paid, where the tax incentives/penalties are hidden, etc. A company I did some work for - Interface- tried to offer their product (carpet tiles) as a service instead. They installed the floor, owned it, maintained it and replaced it at the end of product life. In the end, it failed because of the way the accountants and the law viewed services vs capital investments.
Just saying.
Robin

 

[DaveT]

been thinking about the take rate on autopilot. if that number is really at 75%, it makes me wonder what happens on the model 3 margins? maybe on the model 3 a $5k option only is taken at a 50-60% rate, but still... that's a $2500-3000 per vehicle average.

that's almost all profit too because the development cost with the same sensor suite is sort of included in the other vehicles. $2500-3000 is probably going to be a solid 5-8% of the model 3 price. that's a big kick to whatever gross margin would be, maybe 1/3rd the overall profits if the thing runs at 24% gross margin. pretty stunning.

No sure Tesla will be able to charge $5k for enhanced AP to Model 3 users... maybe slightly lower. Also cost of Nvidia's computer will be substantial... I haven't seen estimates but my ignorant wild guess would be around $1k. Add sensors cost, maybe another few hundred. Then as an additional cost we need to add in the cost of users who don't activate AP. But overall I agree it's high margin, especially if more than 50% of buyers choose the option. And then fully self-driving option is even higher margin.

 

[Intl Professor]

Rrrm

Undefinably better than your earlier effort.

 

[Intl Professor]

Doesn't seem to matter where I go, that never changes.

One of my myriad fathers-in-law, a professional philosopher, told me John Dewey once gave an hourlong lecture on that closing, surprise, with 'that's enough of that." Right up there with Churchill's, "that which I shall not put," or something like that. (The next shall be a complete mind petard. Rrrm, as the venerable neroden would say.)

 

[Waiting4M3]

No sure Tesla will be able to charge $5k for enhanced AP to Model 3 users... maybe slightly lower. Also cost of Nvidia's computer will be substantial... I haven't seen estimates but my ignorant wild guess would be around $1k. Add sensors cost, maybe another few hundred. Then as an additional cost we need to add in the cost of users who don't activate AP. But overall I agree it's high margin, especially if more than 50% of buyers choose the option. And then fully self-driving option is even higher margin.

Maybe after M3 ramps up the price for EAP/FSD come down for all MSX3, since they share CPU and likely also camera/sensors, so higher volume due to M3 lowers prices for all

 

[SPadival]

Ok. Which one of you is Vanessa?

Why Forbes is so Keen on Ruining Elon Musk? – Vanessa Stenberg – Medium

 

[larmor]

"Stormy weather in Shortville" tweet followed by an early-ish ER (like the Q3 2016 ER), plus an announcement for a September Semi reveal and July Model 3 final unveil. Solar Roofs scheduled to come out in the next few weeks, and high probability of positive TE surprises over the next few months. And shorts already under pressure.

Interesting times ahead ....

The main issue is that the market does not value future profits or projections for tesla. The market really needs see it to believe it in order to make any sustainable movement on tesla. The market should instead look at the head of tesla and gauge future projections based on his leadership. Apparently it worked out well at paypal...

 

[EinSV]

The main issue is that the market does not value future profits or projections for tesla. The market really needs see it to believe it in order to make any sustainable movement on tesla. The market should instead look at the head of tesla and gauge future projections based on his leadership. Apparently it worked out well at paypal...

I agree. That's why it's so great that they have made no projections for Solar Roof sales. No projections for TE. No projections for Tesla Semi. There are *no* expectations for any of this stuff so any good news should be all upside.

Also, seem to be on track for something close to meeting the not-gonna-happen July launch date for Model 3. And for one of the few targets for 2017 -- 47-50K Model S and X -- they are at the high end of projections so far.

Lots of good work on the forum going into a disciplined analysis of Q1 ER, but the "circumstantial evidence" -- including Elon tweets and early date for the report -- so far bodes well.

 

[dw4ngg]

"Stormy weather in Shortville" tweet followed by an early-ish ER (like the Q3 2016 ER), plus an announcement for a September Semi reveal and July Model 3 final unveil. Solar Roofs scheduled to come out in the next few weeks, and high probability of positive TE surprises over the next few months. And shorts already under pressure.

Interesting times ahead ....

Def bearish after that recap of upcoming news...