You nailed it! This may be one of the most understated and unexplored topics on this board. I gained a new perspective for this after performing energy audits all around the state of Alaska. It is my sincere belief that as energy becomes more available at the point of use then there will be less emphasis on energy efficiency - for better or for worse
. I am not talking about the half-hearted programs that the local energy co-ops and PUD's promote.....such as fluorescent light bulbs and more efficient hot water heaters. I am talking about entire new construction designs and remodel efforts. I do believe that it is a wonderful thing that we put a lot of effort into insulating and sealing home, and with sizing and selecting heat pumps to optimize efficiency. Those efforts are not only due to cost of energy, but also because the current grid will not support delivering what would be needed to cover inefficient growth. And in remote Alaska those efforts are because you can't afford - or sometimes can't even get enough fuel oil for heating delivered to you. That is in part why we see 'some' efforts by PUD's to buy new light bulbs for us.
Where does this go IMO? Once we have an option for a distributed grid, the first energy selection an informed home designer will make will be a solar roof with battery storage. This could drive the
cost of construction down more than almost any other cost. I am currently building an example of this on steroids. It is a 36' x 60' Gothic Barn with an 1800 square foot man cave upstairs and 4500 square feet of roofing that I will soon need to cover. The gothic arches (radius walls that become the ceiling where they meet at the peak) are constructed so that the roof-line runs east-west so that 1/2 the roof is facing due south. The purpose for that is so that 2250 square feet of roof (south facing 1/2) will be able to collect solar. The gothic arch allows it to always have some portion of the roof at an ideal angle regardless of season. I have been anxiously awaiting the Tesla Solar pricing for many reasons, particularly because they offer a solar shingle solution for the south side that will match the non-solar shingles on the north side. But to your point regarding using more energy when it becomes cheaper - I could have built it for an R40 roof, but I don't need to. The insulation cost and effort on a 4500 sq ft roof would be huge. And the carbon footprint and global impact of the construction and distribution/delivery of that unnecessary insulation is not insignificant! If I simply install a solar roof on the south side and battery storage inside, I am afforded the opportunity to finish the inside in more traditional methods. I don't have to turn the whole building into a giant foam cooler chest because it is in itself a local energy generator. My usage of energy locally will go up as a result of a 'less insulated building', but my overall usage from the grid will go waaaaaaaaay down. I also believe my carbon footprint and global impact will go down 'at the time of construction' due to my material selection choices. Over the life of the building my carbon footprint and global impact will of course be much, much lower.
Call out to Elon & JB - I would enthusiastically install a giant Tesla logo on the south-facing solar roof half of this barn (approx 25' - 30' tall Tesla logo in red solar shingles in the middle and the remaining roof in black solar shingles) if I would be allowed to purchase the solar tiles and install them myself. It would create another great example of Tesla 'free advertising' as the roof can be seen from Google Earth quite easily. It was only 8:00 AM when I took this picture and there was enough solar on the roof to spin the electrical meter backwards so fast it would have taken off like this morning's SpaceX launch
View attachment 225139