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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Not many smart investors will think that's a good prospect and continue to invest once the writing is on the wall. Would you invest in GM or Shell or a gas station? The market moves a head of the curve.
Buffet's actually great at squeezing the last profits out of a shrinking company. *Particularly* in insurance, where he routinely reinsures or takes over insurance operations which are *already* in run-off (not issuing new policies). He made a lot of money taking over asbestos claims and stuff like that (the other company pays him up front, he pays out the claims over decades, and they probably turn out to be less than the other company feared).

Most certainly he will just keep operating GEICO. If it turns out that the business has poor future prospects, he'll discourage them from chasing volume growth and instead run off the business in a profitable fashion.
 
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Perhaps India needs a low cost, all-in-one battery-electric version of the Smith Motorwheel ;)
Meet the Clean Motion ZBee Zbee - Clean Motion
an electric rikshah/tuktuk-type three-seater light-weight composite three-wheeler intended for the Indian and Indonesian markets primarily. I have actually seen a few of them on show duty in central Gothenburg last year! Tried to get in on the IPO but it was heavily oversubscribed.

The company intends to manufacture in India but for now it's in Trollhättan and has just signed an agreement to rent production space at NEVS factory (formerly known as Saab).
 
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To end, this political backing of NV Energy and it's machinations has led to the a vote by the masses to rescind their monopoly. A second voted is needed to finalize. After that, we shall see if BRK keeps NV Energy as an investment. I still remember the day I read in the news that BRK invested in NV Energy. My first thought as a consumer: "This is gonna suck."
He doesn't sell businesses he's bought all of. He liquidated a couple; I can't think of one that he sold, ever.

FWIW, NV Energy is now moving to try to be competitive (now that they're losing their monopoly), by shutting down their coal plants and building utility-scale solar farms and wind farms as fast as possible. (Maybe they listened to their stablemate, Mid-American Energy, who's been doing this for years.) Even though they're losing monopoly pricing, they'll probably do OK.
 
Incidentally, the 13F forms for Q1 are due by April 15, so we will soon learn whether large institutional shareholders changed their TSLA positions, and whether the newest large shareholder, Tencent, continued buying TSLA after getting their 5% position.

I just learned a tidbit. Passive positions of *less than 10%* don't require approval by CFIUS. After learning that, I strongly suspect that Tencent is aiming at 9.9% and will stop just before 10%.
 
Last week I noticed a subtle but possibly significant difference between the 17Q1 and 16Q4 letters about the Model 3 ramp.

The Q4 letter reads, "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

While Q1 letter reads, "preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

Are they hinting at the possibility that the ramp might hit 5k/week before the end of Q3?

This is exactly what I picked up on myself. To me it appears that Tesla is ahead of schedule vs. whatever internal targets they set. I think at this point in the game it's more likely than not that they'll hit a 5k run rate by end of the year just for Model 3, which will put them significantly ahead (like, by a lot) vs. all other analyst models. I think the most optimistic has Tesla at 200k Model 3s by 2020. In theory they would beat this number significantly by 2018.
 
I recall Elon mentioning many times before that he's expecting the Energy portion of the business (i.e. Powerwall/pack, solar roof, etc.) to be 50% of Tesla's core business at some point in the future. Anyone recall exactly what timeframe Elon was hinting at when making this comment? 2020 before Model 3 expanded ramp? 2025?
 
OK, I think they both matter.
The proportion of Tesla engineers/executives who are Chinese/Indian only is important because they are much more likely to clearly perceive relevant development in their countries of origin than are others. IME people who have lived in a given country almost always pay more attention to what is happening there than those who have not, and people who are originally from a given country almost always are more attuned than those who aren't. In short, I think of it as the globalist version of the 'old boys club' so beloved in Japan.

The photovoltaic issue is more of the traditional industrial development cycle. First, cheap labor, second, efficient production, third, improve the product. Second and third often happen at the same time or reverse in order. In the current context the real issue is the huge number of qualified engineers who have been working on photovoltaics in China, driven by the domestic insatiable demand. At the moment there is clear Chinese leadership in that area. FWIW, some Chinese producers now have gone abroad and adopted Western names. Canadian Solar, for example, is a firm started, owned and professionally staffed by Chinese people but based in Canada. The Chinese purchases of Volvo, MG and Rover all serve as examples of this trend.

I hope that answers your question.

BTW, Tesla understands all this very, very well in my opinion. My personal view is that Tesla will have China as their #1 market soon, and India will probably emerge as number 3 or 4, but might also have technical service agreements or supplier relationships with firms like Bajaj and Tata.
thank you, it affirms my suspicions/thoughts. I love TMC for ideas
 
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I would be absolutely shocked if Tesla did not open a substantial manufacturing presence in China. I dont see the same advantages to India unless there is some type of free trade agreement between India and China. There is no reason why you cant supply India from China.
Logistics. We've discussed this before. India is ideal for logistics for serving points *south of the Himalayas* and *west of the Strait of Malacca*. China... isn't. China is currently investing billions in various road and railway schemes to try to change that, but it's going very slowly.
 
I worry about Tesla ability to sustain high growth with high quality customer support.
This is my main worry too.


lastly, Apple market share by price is pretty durable, at least so far. I worry about that too, but not so much that I'll soon change AAPL from being by far my largest personal holding.
I decided it wasn't a good time to invest in a corporate bond fund involved in international tax avoidance scams. (Yes, I know they also own a smartphone business, where they sell overpriced smartphones with fewer features than the competition and charge high prices because of brand cachet. This is not a business model I understand -- it's also not one I like. The growth is only limited by the number of status-seeking suckers, so I suppose it could be high, but fashions change fast, and Jobs -- who could single-handedly create fashions -- is dead.)
 
I recall Elon mentioning many times before that he's expecting the Energy portion of the business (i.e. Powerwall/pack, solar roof, etc.) to be 50% of Tesla's core business at some point in the future. Anyone recall exactly what timeframe Elon was hinting at when making this comment? 2020 before Model 3 expanded ramp? 2025?
I don't think he ever gave a timeframe. I always remember the context being that TE would scale faster than the auto business once it gets moving. Thus, it will reach parity with the auto side at some point. Production is the only constraint on the TE side, meaning that TE will reach TA as soon as they can build it.
 
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I don't think he ever gave a timeframe. I always remember the context being that TE would scale faster than the auto business once it gets moving. Thus, it will reach parity with the auto side at some point. Production is the only constraint on the TE side, meaning that TE will reach TA as soon as they can build it.

Got it - the estimated date of TE and Auto parity is what I'm trying to nail down for my model. If I assume 2025 and 250bn of revenue from the auto side (on about 4m units sold) then that extrapolates out to $500bn of revenue, and using 12% EBIT to Revenue ratio and a 20 P/E multiple we get a very pretty number using today's shares outstanding.
 
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I recall Elon mentioning many times before that he's expecting the Energy portion of the business (i.e. Powerwall/pack, solar roof, etc.) to be 50% of Tesla's core business at some point in the future. Anyone recall exactly what timeframe Elon was hinting at when making this comment? 2020 before Model 3 expanded ramp? 2025?
Not before 2025, due to battery production constraints. See details here under the forecast sheet: Tesla

Edit: Actually there's a chance that might happen before 2025 if Tesla announces 4 gigafactories this year, depending on the capacity of those factories.
 
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I just learned a tidbit. Passive positions of *less than 10%* don't require approval by CFIUS. After learning that, I strongly suspect that Tencent is aiming at 9.9% and will stop just before 10%.
One of the most interesting parts of this is that the discretion is entirely with the US President so can be changed on a whim. Depending on the current administration attitude towards China, US manufacturing in California, BEV's, private sector Space and South African English accents he might think it promotes US interests to have big US job creation helped by China's leading private sector investor. Then again, it might be opposite. I'd speculate that Tencent, if it wants more than 9.99% of TSLA would seek some prior notion of approval. They'd probably get it if such an announcement would include the US President announcing creation of, say, "10,000 new high paying US jobs building cars in the US".
 
I decided it wasn't a good time to invest in a corporate bond fund involved in international tax avoidance scams. (Yes, I know they also own a smartphone business, where they sell overpriced smartphones with fewer features than the competition and charge high prices because of brand cachet. This is not a business model I understand -- it's also not one I like. The growth is only limited by the number of status-seeking suckers, so I suppose it could be high, but fashions change fast, and Jobs -- who could single-handedly create fashions -- is dead.)

You should stick to writing about what you know. It's possible you know something about Tesla, but you obviously know nothing about Apple (or its customers). People have been babbling like this for almost forty years now and have been wrong over and over and over. The only important way in which Apple and Tesla are alike is that they are run by people whose primary goal is something other than making money. Profit is a subgoal, necessary to reach the real goal. That is why they are the only two companies I have seriously invested in. That is why they are both going to be the largest and most successful companies in the world.
 
Logistics. We've discussed this before. India is ideal for logistics for serving points *south of the Himalayas* and *west of the Strait of Malacca*. China... isn't. China is currently investing billions in various road and railway schemes to try to change that, but it's going very slowly.

I apologize, I missed that discussion. Wouldn't logic dictate that if it is difficult to get goods from China to India that would be just as difficult to get goods from India to China and since China is by far a bigger market, that you it would be easier to supply India from China? At least until GF6+. I understand what you are saying, but what is west of the Straight of Malacca and south of the Himalayas that are more important then China? Do you mean east/southeast of the straight? You would need to put things on a boat anyway.

Edit: I don't mean to contradict or some off as disrespectful, I am just reading the semi-truck sized tea leaves as it relates to Tesla and China. I see your point about how India is walled off from China.
 
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