Sure, they had reason to look at the EV1 20 years ago and say, there was a market for that caliber of EV. Looking at the Model S in 2012/13, they had reason to realize, that the market will be a Tesla caliber EV (by this I mean basic performance and range, not Model S size or luxury). I think the vast majority of automakers have realized this by at least 2014. They've simply also realized that pushing off as far as possible the implosion of their ICE business is more appealing to them than transitioning to EVs, Tesla taking 5% market share in several years of an auto market expanding by 10+% notwithstanding.
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Sure, they had reason to look at the EV1 20 years ago and say, there was a market for that caliber of EV. Looking at the Model S in 2012/13, they had reason to realize, that the market will be a Tesla caliber EV (by this I mean basic performance and range, not Model S size or luxury). I think the vast majority of automakers have realized this by at least 2014. They've simply also realized that pushing off as far as possible the implosion of their ICE business is more appealing to them than transitioning to EVs, Tesla taking 5% market share in several years of an auto market expanding by 10+% notwithstanding.
I suspect he means 50% of battery production will go to TE, rather than TE making as much total revenue as the auto business. There has been no explicit guidance on this and my impression of course may be mistaken.
I think that's a rather risky interpretation of Elon's comments (see prior post).
You mean newer than what Elon said at the TED talk just a few days ago?
this is why TSLA is so stupid right now... people are just making numbers up.
4m cars in 2025?... sounds great... and that brings in $250m... with an ASP of $62,500/car?... get that model prepped... totally makes sense... it's pretty much a given that TSLA replace Mercedes, BMW and Audi... no risks there... oh... and somehow they'll get everyone of their customers to just simply give them more money.
and then of course... find your 'parity' with TE... that virtually non-existent business line that was supposed to bring in 2 billion dollars this year... according to Elon Musk... how much in Q1?
and then when you're done... come back here and tell any short you can that they just don't get it... because they don't have a model.
Krugerrand
Meow
Um...what? TSLA is stupid because people are making up numbers? That's like saying you're stupid because people put you on ignore. Never mind.
Steve, I haven't tracked down the annual meeting transcript but am confident that Elon's statement/speculation was that TE revenue in the future would be about equal to TA revenue. "Real time" discussion on TMC is here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
RobStark
Well-Known Member
You don't crash at 60 mph or more with your family inside a huawei smartphone.
Chinese built vehicles by established car companies will see some reluctance in the marketplace.
Chinese branded vehicles built by brand new Chinese companies unheard of in Western markets will see extreme skepticism. They will probably target fleet sales first. Where people making the buying decision don't actually have to drive the vehicles.
Two questions:
Did you cover your "perfect short" initiated at $326 yet?
When is the "next stop $270" coming?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
My personal opinion is that right now is a time to be cautious. Expectations were high in July 2015 when the stock peaked at $291 and then there was disappointment with the X launch.
Now we are in an analogous period before the 3 launch and there is again risk for disappointment. The car is easier to build of course but the volume targets are much higher.
Next time I buy shares will be when Elon shows me solid progress.
I also would like to see solid model s and x demand before I buy more shares. This was not clear on the call.
And of course I want to know where funding for new gigafactories is coming from.
Still optimistic about the future but Frankly surprised we are above 300 after the drop last week.
Of course there may be a lot we don't know that might explain the strong share price and maybe tencent is playing a role.
Now we are in an analogous period before the 3 launch and there is again risk for disappointment. The car is easier to build of course but the volume targets are much higher.
Next time I buy shares will be when Elon shows me solid progress.
I also would like to see solid model s and x demand before I buy more shares. This was not clear on the call.
And of course I want to know where funding for new gigafactories is coming from.
Still optimistic about the future but Frankly surprised we are above 300 after the drop last week.
Of course there may be a lot we don't know that might explain the strong share price and maybe tencent is playing a role.
With Tesla semi truck coming and the pickup not long after, would any one know where they are building these?
Fremont seems to be overflowing and doesn't look like an option. Thoughts?
Fremont seems to be overflowing and doesn't look like an option. Thoughts?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
A big difference between now and July 2015 is that expectations are now low:
I estimate that, at $300 per share, Mr. Market expects 500k cars in 2020 at 5% NI margin and assigns zero value to TE.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Company has said Fremont can scale up to 1 million vehicles per year.
Tesla’s Fremont factory could manufacture up to 1 million vehicles per year, says Musk
But there is no solid evidence in my mind that TE should be assigned value at this point. What evidence do we have of strong demand for a product with high margins not threatened by competition. Not much.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
There clearly is very strong demand for the general industry to grow. What is unclear is if the demand will channel to Tesla's products.
I think that it will due to Tesla's cost advantage (ie. scale), engineering expertise around designing/incorporating inverters, brand value etc.
please STOP responding to "myusername" and just IGNORE
The comments here seem schizophrenic non-sequitors for those of the rest of us ignoring
I agree about such skepticism Rob (fwiw, I've written as much explicitly on TMC in the past, for example, in the thread/post describing a fractured tipping scenario for long range EVs). My point is, the incumbent automakers are likely to take years off of the process of the Chinese automakers overcoming that skepticism if the bulk of them (non-Chinese incumbents) continue to effectively milk their ICE investments as long as long possible with little regard for emerging demand for long range EVs.
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