2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[DurandalAI]

Not sure the U.S. would be willing to bail out GM this time around. I think a bankruptcy is far more likely and lets them get back on their feet faster as a much leaner company with far less ICE production and ICE vehicle assets. Someone(s) will be left holding the bag and it really shouldn't be the U.S. taxpayer again.

I don't disagree at all with the sentiment that they should be allowed to fail. I think even if there is a Fed intervention, it will be VERY restrictive, likely requiring even more extreme downsizing. Bankruptcy would be the best option, I think the main fear that would be held is to somehow prevent Chinese companies from swooping down and purchasing assets on the cheap. Fiat was somewhat palatable to the population, but a Chinese company likely would invoke far too much nationalist sentiment. As long as the UAW is busy with their strong-arm tactics, companies like Tesla will never try to take over any of the plants in UAW strongholds, I don't imagine.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Hardly. The negotiating game is on!

Your long rant became pointless to read past the fantasy comparing Musk's business acumen to Trump's.
One has built two multi billion companies in record time and is on track to disrupt several huge industries.
Trump's main success is getting others to fund his casino's, etc. and sticking them with the capital losses when
he manages them into bankruptcy. Now Trump has aligned the U.S. with Syria and Nicaragua as the only countries
not on board to do what they can to slow down and stop climate change.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Time to double my position in the stock .

Referring back to the Ashlee Vance bio of Elon Musk, Elon is all about being hands on.

There's a description of Elon on the factory floor of SpaceX trying to repair cracked engine cooling chambers with epoxy and getting the stuff all over his expensive Italian shoes.

 

[SunCatcher]

Hardly. The negotiating game is on!

In other words... nothing will be done (involving US "leadership"). NOTHING! You've been had.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I don't disagree at all with the sentiment that they should be allowed to fail. I think even if there is a Fed intervention, it will be VERY restrictive, likely requiring even more extreme downsizing. Bankruptcy would be the best option, I think the main fear that would be held is to somehow prevent Chinese companies from swooping down and purchasing assets on the cheap. Fiat was somewhat palatable to the population, but a Chinese company likely would invoke far too much nationalist sentiment. As long as the UAW is busy with their strong-arm tactics, companies like Tesla will never try to take over any of the plants in UAW strongholds, I don't imagine.

My guess would be that Tesla would cherry pick the more modern GM plants up for sale and factor in the union sentiment among the workforce for each.
If you were an out of work auto plant worker and could qualify for a good paying job near where you used to work for GM, with a company growing like a weed and incenting workers with stock options, I think you'd say goodbye to the UAW out pretty quick.

 

[SBenson]

Keep your friends close, but enemies closer. Always a good idea to know what the prevailing short thesis' are.

Einhorn Sees Innovation, Not Profits for Musk's Tesla

 

[Cobbler]

Europe is considering import tax on US goods. Could this impact model3 sales?
Or is the Tilburg plant a solution?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Europe is considering import tax on US goods. Could this impact model3 sales?
Or is the Tilburg plant a solution?

A Gigafactory with battery and car production in Europe is the solution. Stand by, announcement to come end of this year.

 

[Drax7]

Referring back to the Ashlee Vance bio of Elon Musk, Elon is all about being hands on.

There's a description of Elon on the factory floor of SpaceX trying to repair cracked engine cooling chambers with epoxy and getting the stuff all over his expensive Italian shoes.

Elon is an engineer, not a lawyer, salesman, or accountant, and I am well aware of it.
And moreover a humanitarian to boot.

 

[Lessmog]

anticitizen13.7 said: ↑
Referring back to the Ashlee Vance bio of Elon Musk, Elon is all about being hands on.

There's a description of Elon on the factory floor of SpaceX trying to repair cracked engine cooling chambers with epoxy and getting the stuff all over his expensive Italian shoes.

Elon is an engineer, not a lawyer, salesman, or accountant, and I am well aware of it.
And moreover a humanitarian to boot.

To Italian boots, if you don't mind
with a special epoxy shine.

 

[Waiting4M3]

In 2018, the 200k M3 will make GM look more pathetic than usual, and at 500k M3 in 2020, the market will see how irrelevant GM truly is.

You mean 500K M3 production rate sometime in 2018 and 1M in 2020? Elon is always a moving target. Imagine how difficult it is for GM to catch up to him, if even we have so much difficulties here.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Europe is considering import tax on US goods. Could this impact model3 sales?
Or is the Tilburg plant a solution?

Article from 2013:
Free-Trade Cars: Why a U.S.–Europe Free-Trade Agreement Is a Good Idea - Feature

"The standard tariff for importing cars to the U.S. is 2.5 percent of their value. For pickup trucks and commercial vans, the tariff is a whopping 25 percent. Individual European countries don’t charge import duties, but the European Union charges a flat rate of 10 percent on imported automobiles."​

Are the EU raising the import tax on cars from 10%? Do you have a link to details?

 

[mmd]

The exact production capacity there has not be definitely reported in the press, therefore whether there is 30k or 50k for 2017 is not accurately known. Likely, the real answer is a mix... initially, 30k is what GM chose to build and that might be cell production limited as LG works to finish the Ochang factory build out.

Exactly. But @schonelucht said, Bolt is limited to 30k/yr production capacity, citing an article from Oct, which said "over 30k" in the title. My comment was countering that limit.
So far, GM has sold ~7k Bolts and ~5k cars are sitting in inventory in US. GM may be ramping production, but it isn't constrained by cell supplies. As you said, LG can get the cells from its different plants. The article I linked also said, only 2 out of 3 lines were working last year. If sales increase, LG will increase supply, albeit slowly

If the sales rate is only ~2k-3k per month, there is no point planning for 3 GWh from the beginning. It's a delicate dance of matching the supply with demand, just like any other product.
GM could also be taking it slow to incorporate the feedback from version 1 of Bolt. GM might improve the Bolt for 2018 version. Will have to wait and see.

I expect M3 launch to look quite similar to this, or worse. Yeah, I know you will point to the 373K reservations. But these are like blind dates. Once people see the actual finished product, pricing and specs, many will look elsewhere.

 

[kehlKroos]

Article from 2013:
Free-Trade Cars: Why a U.S.–Europe Free-Trade Agreement Is a Good Idea - Feature

"The standard tariff for importing cars to the U.S. is 2.5 percent of their value. For pickup trucks and commercial vans, the tariff is a whopping 25 percent. Individual European countries don’t charge import duties, but the European Union charges a flat rate of 10 percent on imported automobiles."​

Are the EU raising the import tax on cars from 10%? Do you have a link to details?

and EU has another 20% VAT on this 10% import tax

US tax German car 3%

US has a 120B trade deficit with EU every year

But this is better than China

China tax US car 25% import tax and 17% VAT

 

[Waiting4M3]

and EU has another 20% VAT on this 10% import tax

US has a 120B trade deficit with EU every year

Isn't VAT applied for every car sold in EU regardless of origin? As I understand a VAT is kind like a sales tax, isn't it?

 

[kehlKroos]

they use those tax to help their domestic car companies to reduce cost

And there is no VAT on the cars they export to US

US is really stupid

 

[Bobfitz1]

Elon is an engineer, not a lawyer, salesman, or accountant, and I am well aware of it.
And moreover a humanitarian to boot.

Yes but he is also a fast learning polymath. He learns enough law, marketing, accounting, etc. to fully understand what all his VPs are doing, why, and challenging some of their assumptions.

 

[kenliles]

a little OT-
but just a heads up for those investing with IRAs
Your retirement savings will undergo this major change next week

 

[Drax7]

Yes but he is also a fast learning polymath. He learns enough law, marketing, accounting, etc. to fully understand what all his VPs are doing, why, and challenging some of their assumptions.

Most ceos of large USA corporations are not engineers.
That is a massive difference that distinguishes Tesla .

 

[kenliles]

'Coal will be competitive again' and the US needs to be ready, says Trump advisor Gary Cohn

"At some point in the cycle, coal will be competitive again," Cohn said. "We want to be in the coal business because we know there's a cyclical nature to all these commodity prices. And when coal is the feedstock of choice, we need to have that feedstock to be globally competitive."

"But I did get caught off guard when [Blankfein] started tweeting last night," said Cohn, referring to Blankein's first-ever tweet.

One corporate leader in support of Trump's move is Robert Murray, chairman and CEO Murray Energy, an Ohio-based coal giant. Murray, a routine supporter of Trump's energy deregulation efforts, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday, "President Trump was very courageous."


This post really belongs in the Blind Faith thread- sorry