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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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To bears, it's actually quite like last year's 140 for bulls. 180 was the "bottom" so a 140 is about 23% loss. 290 was the "top" so at 356 is about 23% loss as well.

Last time the bulls held on, with Q4 2015 ER and the 80-90k deliveries in 2016 guidance. Let's see if the bears can hold on now.
a way to test bears resolve to hang on, and learn innovative cursing and invective, is to continuously tell them
"as of right now, in aggregate, you have lost $11,295,554,219.85 (billion $$), just saying, you can still cover as markets are still open"
way too much fun, but there are bars i don't ever dare going to
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
 
To bears, it's actually quite like last year's 140 for bulls. 180 was the "bottom" so a 140 is about 23% loss. 290 was the "top" so at 356 is about 23% loss as well.

Last time the bulls held on, with Q4 2015 ER and the 80-90k deliveries in 2016 guidance. Let's see if the bears can hold on now.

The algos are the part of the equation that I have no handle on. Funds like SIG and Renaissance (founder the #1 Trump supporter) are huge in the options...gigantic if you check the positions. Overall, the bid for FANG, AAPL, and TSLA is incredibly strong...not sure when that bid starts to weaken.

Who are the OG's on the market portion of the forum btw? A lot of the most vocal folks seem to have joined in the beginning of this year (maybe they were on other boards). This thread and a few others are also very recent. I'm looking for the commentary around the last peak/troughs in '15 and '16.
 
Elon Musk didn't know what Level 4 Automation was in Q2 2015... 2 weeks before Adam Jonas declared Tesla the "leader" in autonomous vehicles and that "in the spring of 2016" we should see huge leaps in ride sharing capabilities.

it's 2017... the only thing truly accomplished so far is the stock valuation... and a horde of followers that sit around all day and write the posts above.

Autopilot 2.0 had a rocky start, but based on customer feedback I read on Model S and X, the software has greatly improved in the past 6 months. It's not perfect but the trend line is very positive so far in 2017.

I don't buy the overly optimistic projections, but at the same time it's unrealistic to say that there have been no accomplishments this year.
 
I agree that price is the primary reason why Model X seems to have underwhelmed Model S growth, but this is temporary.

I believe Tesla priced Model X higher vs. competitors, because they learned from Model S experience that production constrain = missed profits.

I expect either significant Model X price drop later this year OR earlier-than-expected Model Y production start.

Most likely scenario: Drop Model X price by $5-7k by end-2017, then another $5-7k sometime in 2018, and produce Model Y in 2019.

The Germans priced their large CUVs well below their large sedans.

With FWD and the structure to support them, Model X is fundamentally more expensive to build than Model S. I always see a premium in Model X vs Model S. And therefore underwhelming sales for Tesla's CUV vs the Germans.

Elon deleted the tweet where he said either Model 3 or Model Y will have FWD.

I see Model Y having all conventional doors priced at Model 3 price. Like the Germans and having extremely impressive sales. Leaving Model X as a premium halo product.
 
But that isn't accurate is it? You don't know how much they have lost in aggregate unless you know at what average price they shorted in to their positions at. (But it obviously wasn't at $0.)

They have probably only lost about half of that, so far. :)
the higher number causes them to ROFWSIG and help me learn new invectives, and can be used as a "tell"
a few of them are admitting capitulation, reluctantly, whom were adamant, some are having comments deleted
(am i incorrect saying they have 3 shares chasing 1 share, 19% short?)
 
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The Germans priced their large CUVs well below their large sedans.

With FWD and the structure to support them, Model X is fundamentally more expensive to build than Model S. I always see a premium in Model X vs Model S. And therefore underwhelming sales for Tesla's CUV vs the Germans.

Elon deleted the tweet where he said either Model 3 or Model Y will have FWD.

I see Model Y having all conventional doors priced at Model 3 price. Like the Germans and having extremely impressive sales. Leaving Model X as a premium halo product.

I'm not so sure about the last paragraph.

Elon's comments on Model Y production line ("there will be nothing close to it"), I think, is telling.

We may get a surprising low price for Model Y.
 
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I'm not so sure about the last paragraph.

Elon's comments on Model Y production line ("there will be nothing close to it"), I think, is telling.

We may get a surprising low price for Model Y.

I think it will be priced right for the market with high margins. No matter what Tesla does, they will be trying to keep up with demand for a very long time, and they could use the extra profits to fund the expansion. Specifically a truck that could be versatile enough to be used as a work truck, box truck, off road or as a luxury pickup with various cab sizes and modular enough to be used for a ton of different configurations, even tow trucks. If they could make 2 million cars this year, they could sell every single one. It would crush the charging network and service centers though.
 
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