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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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howardoark said:
Tell me how they'll beat Waymo and Intel to a mass market Level 5 autonomous vehicle technology (Musk is not doing any programming)

I don't think anyone has addressed this yet. There are two ways to do autonomous driving:
  • Using high-resolution mapping (including lidar mapping) in limited areas, at considerable expense and with a need for constant updates to account for even very small new construction or repairs. This is the approach that Waymo uses. Machine learning is needed here, but a relatively small dataset can suffice because so much pre-processed data is available on the local environment.
  • More general autonomous driving, entirely dependent on machine learning, using algorithms developed from vast datasets.
So achieving autonomy is not so much just about programming, but more about collecting data and allowing the machine to learn from it. Whoever is first in collecting enormous data sets will win. It's as simple as that.

Other manufacturers have no more than a few hundred vehicles for data collection. Tesla's machine learning approach collects data from the entire fleet of vehicles owned by customers (this is reduced in cases where the customer has declined consent for image uploads to Tesla; even then, a lot of learning can still happen). Tesla's fleet is therefore vastly greater than any competitor and that is likely to remain the case for a long time.

I just don't see how it is possible for Tesla not to have a multi-year advantage over any competitor, except in driving around specific cities that have been mapped in exceptional detail.
 
How does Tesla, without a moat in a mature cut-throat industry with very many deep-pocketed competitors equal Apple? I will even grant you that Elon Musk = Steve Jobs (maybe even >=). But the lithium ion battery patents expired ~2000 and there are 50 car companies capable of building electric battery cars most of them with vastly deeper pockets (or government support that is basically infinite) than Tesla (which builds great products that look cool, wish I had $120,000 I could blow on a depreciating asset). So Musk could be a combination Jobs/Tesla and he couldn't turn his company into Apple (I'm long Apple, so hopefully Cook won't turn Apple into Tesla).

VW R&D chief sees huge shortage of batteries

VW r&d chief sees need for more battery production capacity
 
I was inclined to ignore your original question... the thesis for Tesla's rise is a lot of work and there are plenty of people that have given lengthy arguments pro and con. Therefore, your original question is more apt for Yahoo! Finance Boards or something like that, where people throw short form word salads at each other. You can't possibly expect that people would write up everything that goes into answering your question, and I really couldn't care less if one more short adds to their position. It isn't like there aren't plenty already. But if you really want to know, there's a lot of material to go over. That includes various speeches made by Tarpenning, Musk, and JB Straubel. It includes listening to long term investors like Ron Baron. It means reading the reports by analysts and futurists. There are plenty.

However, this question you posed here is a bit easier to provide a short form answer. You think that the automobile industry is mature and cut throat with deep pocketed competitors. Sure, that's a reasonable view if there wasn't thing concerning a movement towards electric vehicles. Instead, the mass production road worthy electric vehicle industry is very young. And the deep pocketed competitors are not spending their deep pockets on electrification in sufficient amounts. They also still have to do R&D for updated versions of their legacy products as well as satisfy shareholders with reasonable dividends and earnings. Therefore, they are not spending enough money to aggressively move towards electric vehicles. Some are still stuck on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or just assume they will be able to wait and allow others to lead in electrification for a number of very pragmatic and, at first glance, completely reasonable reasons. This also means that the major automakers tend to short shrift the development of EV technologies, taking very short term decisions amongst the many thousands of design and production decisions necessary to bring a modern vehicle to market.

Before I move on, do you really believe the lithium ion batteries have not changed in the past 40 years? Your patent question indicates to me that you really do not understand the technologies, the competitive positions, nor the complexities of R&D, production, and the patents. Do you know the difference between the battery cells in a 2008 Tesla Roadster, the 2010 Nissan Leaf, the 2012 Tesla Model S, the 2015 Kia Soul EV, the 2016 Chevy Bolt, or the 2017 Tesla Model S/X 100? If you don't, you are woefully ignorant to be investing in this space. Do you understand the competitive positions between the cell level and pack level specific energy? The cooling capability? The charge cycle lifespan? The cost per kWh at the cell and the pack level? How about the supplier contracts and the ability to source the cells? How about the differences in the electric motors between a Tesla Model S and the Chevy Bolt? Or the IGBT design differences? Do you know the fundamental differences between the electric vehicle technologies that go into a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versus a long range BEV?

Your dismissive comment, "50 car companies capable of building electric battery cars" belies a complete misread of the industry. BYD is one of the biggest EV manufacturers by volume. But all of their battery production is LiFePO4 and the resulting BEV, the BYD e6 is terrible. Do you know why? Is it just the battery, or will BYD be able to make U.S. or EU spec vehicles any time soon?

You have to ask, why hasn't any major automaker made a straight up Model S competitor (long range BEV in the luxury mid to large sized sport sedan category)? Matter of fact, none of them will through 2019 at least. That will be 7 years of uncontested time. You have to look at what these manufacturers will bring to market and critically analyze what technologies they can bring to bear, what production volumes, and when this will all unfold. I think you will find that it takes time to sort out the motor controller of a high powered AC induction motor design. It takes time to design, implement, and test a new battery management and cooling system for battery cells. These aren't things that the major automakers cannot do, but it is not part of their current core competencies. They tend to choose easier to develop and bring to market versions and assume they will have time later to develop more suitable technologies for long range BEVs.

I leave you with this. In 2016, Tesla alone shipped more batteries in kWh than all of BYD + LG combined, the next two largest automotive battery manufacturers. If you cut out the non-competitive LiFePO4 chemistry, then LG + AESC + Samsung SDI + SKI all together didn't ship as much volume as Tesla alone. And that will repeat in 2017. And 2018. And likely 2019 and 2020. Since large scale battery production plants takes years to bring up to speed, we can project the marketshare of advanced LIBs in 2019 already. Instead of being one of the smallest players, in the world of battery electric vehicles, Tesla commands the highest volumes and the highest revenue. Which also translates into much higher scale of the most expensive parts of a battery electric vehicle... the battery cells, the battery pack integration, the power electronics, the motors, and the chargers. No one else even comes close. Which means Tesla often has the lowest cost, highest capacity, and best technology when it comes to EV specific parts of a vehicle. And that dominates the capacity limitations, feature/specs of the vehicles, and the COGS. Simply, you do not understand Tesla's moat and the implications with just the electric vehicle production and technologies.

This is before we even address the overall ecosystem like DC and AC charging as well as autonomous driving in the vehicle space as well as the development of solar and energy storage systems to look at the entire mosaic of a new energy company.

Didn't Elon promise to give all Tesla's patents for free?
 
I find these articles and Bill Gates sourcing of Billions for the "next breakthrough in renewable energy" fascinating. Maybe Mr. Goodenough's solid battery is the 3x breakthrough, or Bosch can come up with a Lithium-sulphur or Lithium-air battery, but when can they bring it to market 2028? 2029? When can they bring it to market at a scale to meet demand -2030?2031?

If you see demand for 25% of the market for electric cars in 2025, and if all OEM's try to transition, a 1.5 Terrawatt mountain of battery production to climb....wouldn't you start climbing it with the technology currently available?

The Bosch response is the engineering response.

"We are in the middle of development work. That means we are producing new results every week," Bosch Mobility Solutions chief Rolf Bulander told Automotive News Europelast week. A decision would likely be made at year end at the earliest.

It's like they are sitting at the bottom of the mountain, trying to design the best pair of shoes for mountain climbing. Meanwhile, when they look up, Elon is halfway up the mountain, sometimes criss-crossing back and forth, and sometimes going down in order to go back up more quickly, but rapidly increasing his distance from the shoe designers. Elon is betting if someone designs a new, better shoe, he will have a pair sent up to him wherever he is on the mountain, probably delivered by an Amazon drone...and keep on hiking.
 
Please, go on. Point to some cogent posts.I'm short; 99% of the people on this forum are long, so I know I come across as a jerk. But really, short term stock prices are determined by the average investor and the average investor is, by definition, not a genius. So no one should take any of this personally.

I'm specially interested in how Tesla will raise sufficient capital to build out the giga factories, the charging networks, the new assembly lines, the PV factories (maybe pay for some TV ads now that they're going mass market). Tell me how they'll beat Waymo and Intel to a mass market Level 5 autonomous vehicle technology (Musk is not doing any programming). I'm really interested in how many Model 3's they'll sell (how many of those 400,000 deposits will turn into ~$40,000 sales - especially if the resale market doesn't live up to people's expectations - all of you who put down $5k expecting you'll be able to resell them for double the asking price). Really, if you have money in this company (and just because its the casino's money, doesn't mean you couldn't pay your kid's tuition with it at this point) you should have some quantitative explanation for why you're long (e.g., they'll sell six million TM3's over the next 5 years, have $150 million in capx, win Motor Trend's car of the year, et cetera). Please, lay it out for me. Because as far as I can tell, the Tesla longs are just like the SNL Super Fans skit with Tesla as Da Bears and Elon Musk as Coach Ditka (So, yeah, Elon Musk versus a tornado, who wins?)
As Howard Roark, do you know John Galt .. by any chance
 
Edit: I see Techmaven basically hit these points already, his post reminded me to mention that your comment on Li battery patents makes you look clueless on the topic, there are thousands of Li battery patents with more filed every year and thousands of different Li based battery chemistries.

But Elon said, that Tesla gives its patents for free? As Yggdrasill said, Panasonic didn't say so, but at least Tesla's patents don't seem to give moat?
 
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My poin was, that you can't say that Tesla's patents give Tesla competition edge, if you believe Elon.

I think Elon will re-evaluete this promise.

If a business is relying solely on its patents for competitive edge, it's not innovating fast enough.

Tesla is innovating at an unheard-of speed, and its moat is around Brand & Gigafactory & Superchargers vs. patents.

Keep calm and carry on my friend.
 
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Even if it is your car of choice, it is still way out of the price range of the typical family (in the US, let alone the rest of the world).

If it's way out of price range of the typical family in the US then how is it already (almost) the average price? Remember, Elon said that even the base model would be highly compelling.

Average U.S. transaction price hits record $34,077, Edmunds says

We are also ignoring the rebates and other long term cost advantages in this simple upfront price comparison.
 
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