ValueAnalyst
Closed
Precisely. I'm ignoring all FUD. The bulls here know the risks to Tesla's future better than the FUDsters anyway.
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Precisely. I'm ignoring all FUD. The bulls here know the risks to Tesla's future better than the FUDsters anyway.
Ameliorate
Member
At least his arguments are readable. Albeit also boring, repetitive, unresearched, unfounded, inconsistent, biased, willfully blind, automatically gainsaying, amiss, awry, erroneous, false, inaccurate, misguided, mistaken, unsound, fluffed, fallacious, duplicitous and generally wrong.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ok, so I tried to stay out of this dumbassery, but its hard to let idiocity run a muck. I will try to keep this so simple that even shorts can understand it;
1) Tesla is not a car company. They are a tech and energy company that makes cars. This is because the main components of the car are a huge battery and several powerful computers and screens. This makes Tesla closer cousins to Ipads and Vacuums then traditional cars.
2) One of Tesla advantages is one of its disadvantages and that is that EVs are simpler vehicles in terms of total parts required. There is no reason a traditional automaker cant built a good electric car. So why dont they? Because there problem is short sightedness and old thinking. Its hard to go back to your boss and tell him you were wrong about EVs and that are important. This paralysis has allowed Tesla to catch up and even exceed many traditional automakers in terms of manufacturing capabilities. This does not even include the lead they have and have had on the tech side of the equation where every single automaker on the planet is literally 5-10 years behind and they really have no idea how to close this gap, they just dont know how to do it. Its like asking me to speak Chinese just because I have a Chinese made android phone.
3) Tesla didnt just build a car, they built the fuel stations and the dealer network and own the whole damn thing. Some people call this cash burning and dont realize that the money isnt being spent on oh say advertising. The money is being spent on physical things that produce benefits for 30-5-100 years into the future. There is at a minimum of 100B in profits over the next 10 years from this infrastructure and Tesla is not even trying to make money from this infrastructure. All Tesla needs to do is add Solar and services like battery pack upgrades. No one needs packs yet, but when cars hit 10 years old and a new 100KWh pack is only $15,000 installed, with a healthy margin for Tesla.
4) Tesla has higher margins then traditional auto makers because 1/3 the price of the car is software and tech mentioned in #1 above that gets cheaper by the day. EAP and FSD alone could contribute $5B per year in margin or more as volumes ramp. As battery costs drop, the margins actually increase, but only if you build your own batteries, because if you use an outside supplier, you are subject to paying market rates which wil actually go up as supply lags demand. VW is already saying there will be massive battery shortages if 40 gigafactories are not built, just for them (VW r&d chief sees need for more battery production capacity). Compare this to ICE tech which gets more expensive and more complicated as new fuel economy requirements hit auto makers. You can search for the 100's of articles about traditional auto makers complaining about CAFE standards causing them major expensive and raising the costs of cars.
5) No one can afford a Model 3 because its expensive like a BMW. That is intellectually bankrupt. The average price of a car in the US is $35k, but the model 3 can even compete with Camry level cars when you include TCO and a naturally higher residual value from a higher valued car. Adding home solar and going to a 10 year TCO allows the TM3 to compete with Corolla level cars. And both of these scenarios ignore any tax benefits, they are not required to compete. Certainly not everyone who can afford a Corolla will be able to get solar, but many apartment and condo complexes will be adding solar as costs continue to plummit and electricity costs continue to rise.
6) The tax incentives. Oh the evil tax credits that prop up the failing Tesla Ponzi scheme. You know, because they are so valuable that every car company is building EVs to reap them. Or maybe they are just so forth right that they refuse to get all that lushes free money. Or more realistically, the incentives are nice but not nice enough for traditional car companies to changer their business model to get or new car companies to sprout up to go after them. This is all the evidence that you need that they are not substantial enough to prop up anything. Has Tesla taken advantage of tax credits, absolutely. The model 3 is already priced to be competitive as noted in 5 above. The S/X can simply migrate to the new gigafactory packs to save $4000-6000 off the costs of the pack. This goes a long way towards offsetting lost incentives. As one incentive goes away, 3 more pop up. NY and California for example. Tesla does not even have to lower the price, because we all expect the higher end and much higher margin TM3 to fill the gap as S/X move up market. Economies of scale from TM3 will lower costs for S/X. Access to Tier 1 suppliers and larger contracts for raw materials will help drive costs down.
7) Tesla does not advertise. GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler spend 2-3.5B each per year in advertising: Automakers rank high on annual ad-spending list
Tesla gets this for free and will for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. When demand outstripes supply by 10:1, you dont need to advertise.
8) The Tesla killers are coming. If only they had batteries. No one is investing anything remotely required to power hundreds of thousands of cars and definitely not a million or more. Some supplier would need to start breaking ground on a half dozen Gigafactories today just to hope to supply batters for all the Tesla killers coming in 2020 alone. Even China, which is a leader in Battery manufacturing today does not build many batteries for long range EVs, they are mostly going to scooters and glorified golf carts. No one besides Tesla at this point is planning to supply Cells and Packs for upwards of 1M cars er year by 2020 and doubling every year after that for the next decade.
VW r&d chief sees need for more battery production capacity
9) The bolt is way better then the model 3! that is why GM has an extended shut down on the bolt factory and has 111 days worth of inventory. All while losing $10,000 a car. Sad Really, it seems to be a great car. (Chevy Bolt EV inventories are piling up, GM temporarily shuts down factory) They say that its because demand other models built there is down but then they say they have 111 days of inventory, so me thinks they are lying.
10) in 3 years, Tesla can become the biggest utility on the planet with the supercharger network alone. Think Kuwai x 100 to power supercharges and power profit margins of 70%. You know how utilities are like cash machines and many invest in them because they are guaranteed to generate dividends, because like people cannot survive without power. Well people cannot drive without fuel either it appears and Tesla will be able to generate it cheaper then anyone else.
11) Energy storage... uhm good luck comparing this to other auto makers or really any other company. Tesla's Utility company could be Tesla Energies biggest customer. See #10.
12) Solar and Solar roofs. This is another 50B/Y business and for the solar roof, there is 0 competition. See #10.
13) Tesla Network - Just a dream today, but its an inevitability. Autonomous cars that are not EVs will be pointless. This is because the cost to operate an ICE autonomous vehicle will be 3-4X that of an Autonomous EV. See #1-#12 above as to why Tesla will be the only significant supplier of EVs for the next 5 years. Even if Tesla has to buy FSD from an OEM, no one else will be able to compete. There are no batteries for other autos and none of them are planning a head. Also, you need millions of cars to have a successful network, you cannot do it with thousands of cars because no one is going to use a network if they cant find an available ride.
14) Number 13 above: This will change car ownership as we know it. Its a rate to Autonomous EVs because nothing will be sold after that day comes. People will just stop buying cars and catch a ride with Tesla to work at 1/10th the cost to own a car themselves. Demand for traditional cars even Autonomous ICE will be crushed.
15) Are there challenges to get from where Tesla is today. Absolutely. What gives shorts the idea that Tesla will finally fail. I mean, the S is a success. The X is a success. The 3 is months away from proving them all wrong. Once this car hits 5K/W then 10K/W next year, numbers 1-14 above are just a matter of time, because financing will be easy with 100s of billions in Rev and Tens of billions if profits, all with 50% YoY growth for as long as any wants to project. Tesla does not need another nickle to get to 5K cars per week, which will fund 10K cars per week.
16) As I type this, Tesla stock is doing its SpaceX launch impersonation. Shorts. Get out while you can. Or increase your position, but dont come around here babbling nonsense. Come with some actual facts that make sense.
17) Long and Strong.. just like 70% of the other $TSLA stock holders.
Edit: FYI, these are just the high points, there are others on this forum that have analyzed this stuff in detail and these are just a few factors, there are dozens more on the same order of magnitude or larger.
1) Tesla is not a car company. They are a tech and energy company that makes cars. This is because the main components of the car are a huge battery and several powerful computers and screens. This makes Tesla closer cousins to Ipads and Vacuums then traditional cars.
2) One of Tesla advantages is one of its disadvantages and that is that EVs are simpler vehicles in terms of total parts required. There is no reason a traditional automaker cant built a good electric car. So why dont they? Because there problem is short sightedness and old thinking. Its hard to go back to your boss and tell him you were wrong about EVs and that are important. This paralysis has allowed Tesla to catch up and even exceed many traditional automakers in terms of manufacturing capabilities. This does not even include the lead they have and have had on the tech side of the equation where every single automaker on the planet is literally 5-10 years behind and they really have no idea how to close this gap, they just dont know how to do it. Its like asking me to speak Chinese just because I have a Chinese made android phone.
3) Tesla didnt just build a car, they built the fuel stations and the dealer network and own the whole damn thing. Some people call this cash burning and dont realize that the money isnt being spent on oh say advertising. The money is being spent on physical things that produce benefits for 30-5-100 years into the future. There is at a minimum of 100B in profits over the next 10 years from this infrastructure and Tesla is not even trying to make money from this infrastructure. All Tesla needs to do is add Solar and services like battery pack upgrades. No one needs packs yet, but when cars hit 10 years old and a new 100KWh pack is only $15,000 installed, with a healthy margin for Tesla.
4) Tesla has higher margins then traditional auto makers because 1/3 the price of the car is software and tech mentioned in #1 above that gets cheaper by the day. EAP and FSD alone could contribute $5B per year in margin or more as volumes ramp. As battery costs drop, the margins actually increase, but only if you build your own batteries, because if you use an outside supplier, you are subject to paying market rates which wil actually go up as supply lags demand. VW is already saying there will be massive battery shortages if 40 gigafactories are not built, just for them (VW r&d chief sees need for more battery production capacity). Compare this to ICE tech which gets more expensive and more complicated as new fuel economy requirements hit auto makers. You can search for the 100's of articles about traditional auto makers complaining about CAFE standards causing them major expensive and raising the costs of cars.
5) No one can afford a Model 3 because its expensive like a BMW. That is intellectually bankrupt. The average price of a car in the US is $35k, but the model 3 can even compete with Camry level cars when you include TCO and a naturally higher residual value from a higher valued car. Adding home solar and going to a 10 year TCO allows the TM3 to compete with Corolla level cars. And both of these scenarios ignore any tax benefits, they are not required to compete. Certainly not everyone who can afford a Corolla will be able to get solar, but many apartment and condo complexes will be adding solar as costs continue to plummit and electricity costs continue to rise.
6) The tax incentives. Oh the evil tax credits that prop up the failing Tesla Ponzi scheme. You know, because they are so valuable that every car company is building EVs to reap them. Or maybe they are just so forth right that they refuse to get all that lushes free money. Or more realistically, the incentives are nice but not nice enough for traditional car companies to changer their business model to get or new car companies to sprout up to go after them. This is all the evidence that you need that they are not substantial enough to prop up anything. Has Tesla taken advantage of tax credits, absolutely. The model 3 is already priced to be competitive as noted in 5 above. The S/X can simply migrate to the new gigafactory packs to save $4000-6000 off the costs of the pack. This goes a long way towards offsetting lost incentives. As one incentive goes away, 3 more pop up. NY and California for example. Tesla does not even have to lower the price, because we all expect the higher end and much higher margin TM3 to fill the gap as S/X move up market. Economies of scale from TM3 will lower costs for S/X. Access to Tier 1 suppliers and larger contracts for raw materials will help drive costs down.
7) Tesla does not advertise. GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler spend 2-3.5B each per year in advertising: Automakers rank high on annual ad-spending list
Tesla gets this for free and will for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. When demand outstripes supply by 10:1, you dont need to advertise.
8) The Tesla killers are coming. If only they had batteries. No one is investing anything remotely required to power hundreds of thousands of cars and definitely not a million or more. Some supplier would need to start breaking ground on a half dozen Gigafactories today just to hope to supply batters for all the Tesla killers coming in 2020 alone. Even China, which is a leader in Battery manufacturing today does not build many batteries for long range EVs, they are mostly going to scooters and glorified golf carts. No one besides Tesla at this point is planning to supply Cells and Packs for upwards of 1M cars er year by 2020 and doubling every year after that for the next decade.
VW r&d chief sees need for more battery production capacity
9) The bolt is way better then the model 3! that is why GM has an extended shut down on the bolt factory and has 111 days worth of inventory. All while losing $10,000 a car. Sad Really, it seems to be a great car. (Chevy Bolt EV inventories are piling up, GM temporarily shuts down factory) They say that its because demand other models built there is down but then they say they have 111 days of inventory, so me thinks they are lying.
10) in 3 years, Tesla can become the biggest utility on the planet with the supercharger network alone. Think Kuwai x 100 to power supercharges and power profit margins of 70%. You know how utilities are like cash machines and many invest in them because they are guaranteed to generate dividends, because like people cannot survive without power. Well people cannot drive without fuel either it appears and Tesla will be able to generate it cheaper then anyone else.
11) Energy storage... uhm good luck comparing this to other auto makers or really any other company. Tesla's Utility company could be Tesla Energies biggest customer. See #10.
12) Solar and Solar roofs. This is another 50B/Y business and for the solar roof, there is 0 competition. See #10.
13) Tesla Network - Just a dream today, but its an inevitability. Autonomous cars that are not EVs will be pointless. This is because the cost to operate an ICE autonomous vehicle will be 3-4X that of an Autonomous EV. See #1-#12 above as to why Tesla will be the only significant supplier of EVs for the next 5 years. Even if Tesla has to buy FSD from an OEM, no one else will be able to compete. There are no batteries for other autos and none of them are planning a head. Also, you need millions of cars to have a successful network, you cannot do it with thousands of cars because no one is going to use a network if they cant find an available ride.
14) Number 13 above: This will change car ownership as we know it. Its a rate to Autonomous EVs because nothing will be sold after that day comes. People will just stop buying cars and catch a ride with Tesla to work at 1/10th the cost to own a car themselves. Demand for traditional cars even Autonomous ICE will be crushed.
15) Are there challenges to get from where Tesla is today. Absolutely. What gives shorts the idea that Tesla will finally fail. I mean, the S is a success. The X is a success. The 3 is months away from proving them all wrong. Once this car hits 5K/W then 10K/W next year, numbers 1-14 above are just a matter of time, because financing will be easy with 100s of billions in Rev and Tens of billions if profits, all with 50% YoY growth for as long as any wants to project. Tesla does not need another nickle to get to 5K cars per week, which will fund 10K cars per week.
16) As I type this, Tesla stock is doing its SpaceX launch impersonation. Shorts. Get out while you can. Or increase your position, but dont come around here babbling nonsense. Come with some actual facts that make sense.
17) Long and Strong.. just like 70% of the other $TSLA stock holders.
Edit: FYI, these are just the high points, there are others on this forum that have analyzed this stuff in detail and these are just a few factors, there are dozens more on the same order of magnitude or larger.
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LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Reciprocity
Active Member
Tesla doesnt need a moat, they have SpaceX Dragons and Falcons protecting them.
Maybe auto industry watchers like @anticitizen13.7 can chime in.
What went wrong here?
Chevy Bolt EV inventories are piling up, GM temporarily shuts down factory
What went wrong here?
Chevy Bolt EV inventories are piling up, GM temporarily shuts down factory
Krugerrand
Meow
Don't tempt fate by using SpaceX and Tesla in the same sentence.
My biggest concern is not the success of Tesla but the fact that SpaceX may be so successful that EM and friends decide they dislike the whole 'public company PIA' s**t
and take Tesla private under the Space X umbrella.
Didn't bob lutz say the bolt would seriously hurt Tesla.
It now seems to seriously hurt GM .
Got to make that guy accountable CNBC.
As Dwdnjck stated succinctly: Dealers.
Franchised dealerships do not want to sell electric cars due to low potential for maintenance dollars. Their salesmen are not made sufficiently knowledgeable about electric cars. Prospects may come looking for a Bolt but are redirected to ICE cars. Those are among Tesla's arguments against some states enforcing the franchised dealership distribution model.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of thousands of prospects for an affordable electric car who have put down $1000 deposits to reserve Tesla Model 3's. They are apparently willing to wait for their Model 3's and let Bolts go unclaimed on dealers' lots.
I don't think there is any need to go there. I'm sure there are plenty of people that shorted in the $380's. The short interest stayed pretty much the same throughout the $180 to $380 run, so short sellers entered, exited many times. And with TSLA, we can be assured of volatility which means there is ample opportunity to profit or lose which ever way. But for the bears, it's about tactical trading... taking advantage of short term bouts of disappointment or fear, or just the feeling of being overbought. The problem is the long term story, thus far, is working against them. That means paying interest to lose money of the long term. And one of these days, they will get squeezed hard.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
General public typically won't pay 30k for a car that looks like a Honda Fit (and has compromised long range travel capabilities).
Howard, i completely agree
what problem?
Should we not encourage it and watch in fascination as the stock price rises, they squirm, and transfer wealth to us? I really need a prepaid vacation on Hawaii for 3 months or so.
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
I do not believe this is the case for the Bolt. I think two things... GM shipped the vast majority of their allotment to CARB states, specifically CA. Many of the initial dealers have plenty of experience selling Volts and Spark EVs, therefore the situation isn't representative of dealerships across the country. It appears that this strategy backfired.
There are still plenty of buyers of the Bolt, but not where a lot of the inventory sits. So the dealers amongst themselves have been transferring inventory to states that are not officially launched. This misallocation of inventory has blunted some of the initial launch excitement. That, combined with the Model 3 reservations and Model 3 launch means that in the CARB states where the most of the EV buyers thus far live know to wait to see about the Model 3.
They are in no hurry to buy a Bolt and that's partially because of the 2nd reason. The Bolt almost gets "there" and falls shorty in several critical ways, enough for people to hold off and wait to see the Model 3 in the flesh. The DCFC situation is unfortunate and GM doesn't seem ready or willing to change it significantly. The interior is lackluster. Overall, the Bolt doesn't make as much sense. You are paying for a big battery, but you can't fill it quickly or easily for road tripping, and you sacrifice for the interior and exterior style for a pretty high price point. It would have made sense, given they are losing money anyways, to put in a smaller battery, still get 200 miles of UDDS range for the CARB credits, and take $5k+ off the list price. It would then come in clearly cheaper than a Model 3. People will see it in a different light. I believe the base Nissan Leaf will execute this strategy and Hyundai with the Ioniq EV may see some success with this too.
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