2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[luvb2b]

as i used the same source data we should not have such a discrepancy. will review in detail tomorrow.

I've used totals for Europe from the wikiposts on TMC and US estimated sales from InsideEVs.com to arrive at other than US and Europe sales. This method yields data which differ significantly from your method. According to my method Q1 other are 8,010, while Q2 other - 6,773. My method yields higher midpoint projection on deliveries - around 28,500. It is summarized here and then corrected numbers are included here.

 

[dennis]

Sooooo, here's the thing. Elon doesn't rest on his laurels.

If he had 0% doubt about meeting the December run rate of 5000 per week (250000 per year) -- and I do remember him saying that -- then that means that they already aiming at a higher internal target. It means that they are now working as hard as they possibly can to hit the run rate of 10000 per week (500000 per year) which is their actual targeted 2018 run rate. And he has some doubt about whether he can hit that by December.

No rest for the Tesla employees. (Which could become a morale problem, eventually.)

Here is what Elon said on the Q2 earnings call. Important points bolded:

What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp. Nonetheless, I think we've got a great team, and I'm very confident that we will be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year. And we remain – we believe on track to achieve a 5,000 unit week by the end of this year.

So, I would simply urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter or the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of when a quarter ends.

But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year.

In another portion of the call Elon and JB talked about the expansion from 5000/week to 10,000/week requiring 50%-70% additional capex vs. building the original 5000/week production line.

So no, they are not aiming at some higher target than 5000/week for December. And they have less confidence in that number than in 10,000/week by the end of 2018. It is much easier to have confidence in the 16 month target than the 4 month target.

 

[NZ10K]

Sooooo, here's the thing. Elon doesn't rest on his laurels.

If he had 0% doubt about meeting the December run rate of 5000 per week (250000 per year) -- and I do remember him saying that -- then that means that they already aiming at a higher internal target. It means that they are now working as hard as they possibly can to hit the run rate of 10000 per week (500000 per year) which is their actual targeted 2018 run rate. And he has some doubt about whether he can hit that by December.

No rest for the Tesla employees. (Which could become a morale problem, eventually.)

As far as I remember, Elon's zero doubt statement was for the 10000 ran rate by end of 2018, not for the 5000 ran rate of end of 2017.

 

[luvb2b]

hmm, yes i see my mistake now. i will have to post some corrected tables/data tomorrow. i feel embarrassed and grateful at the same time.

I've used totals for Europe from the wikiposts on TMC and US estimated sales from InsideEVs.com to arrive at other than US and Europe sales. This method yields data which differ significantly from your method. According to my method Q1 other are 8,010, while Q2 other - 6,773. My method yields higher midpoint projection on deliveries - around 28,500. It is summarized here and then corrected numbers are included here.

 

[vgrinshpun]

hmm, yes i see my mistake now. i will have to post some corrected tables/data tomorrow. i feel embarrassed and grateful at the same time.

Hey, no need to feel embarrassed. Hopefully we can crowdsource enough to arrive at reasonably accurate estimate. I also think that healthy MS/MX deliveries could help the stock a lot...

 

[schonelucht]

Anyone see the video and know what's up?

No. He explains in a comment on a different video (

) :

had full permission to make the video and post it. But that specific car there was a problem with something me nor the owner was aware of. So we took the video down when asked outta respect when asked . BUT I have another Model 3 coming in the shop and made sure it would not happen again so ill be posting another video then

No clue what it would mean that there was something neither he nor the owner were aware of. Model 3 information drops remains mysterious.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Who doesn't like 0.99% financing and a big discount on new inventory cars? I think, a good demand lever will be to obsolete current models every quarter by relabeling S75 to S74.9, P100 to P99.9 etc. and discounting the S75, P100 etc. heavily but still keep making them. S74.9 and P99.9 will be the new latest model. This will be a nice alibi for 'price adjustment' without angering the customers who pay full price for the latest model. Next quarter, flip it around. Rinse and repeat.

There has been some discounting of 90 kWh versions, discounting of 75 kWh versions that missed out on air suspension++, and favorable interest rates. On the plus side, the USD has been weaker/NOK stronger, so the cars paid for this month will bring in more money than Tesla expected.

A S75D currently starts at 622,700 NOK in Norway, while it starts at 74,500 USD in the US. A X100D starts at 829,300 NOK in Norway while it starts at 96,000 USD in the US. Looking at the exchange rate, it's been at around 7.85 for the past month: XE: USD / NOK Currency Chart. US Dollar to Norwegian Krone Rates

That means that a 622,700 NOK S75D will bring in 79,300 USD in Norway. And a 829,300 NOK X100D will bring in 105.600 USD in Norway. There are some additional costs per car (shipping), but there should be room for some buyer incentives without trashing margins.

 

[schonelucht]

If he had 0% doubt about meeting the December run rate of 5000 per week (250000 per year)

The zero doubt thing was on the 10k next year and actually throwing shade on the 5k this year. Here is the quote

And we remain – we believe on track to achieve a 5,000 unit week by the end of this year.

So, I would simply urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter or the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of when a quarter ends.

But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year.

 

[schonelucht]

It is now clear from the leaks that the software for Model 3 isn't ready. It's missing basic features like FM radio (and USB music!).

Also autopilot is not yet activated. At least it isn't on Riggerjon's (and he did order it, contrary to PTFI) Which is strange because we already had a video of Model 3 with Autopilot on. But that was before they retracted EAB on the S/X for 2.5 hardware. So maybe these are related and it was far easier to not activate autopilot on the further roll out.

 

[erthquake]

Also autopilot is not yet activated. At least it isn't on Riggerjon's (and he did order it, contrary to PTFI) Which is strange because we already had a video of Model 3 with Autopilot on. But that was before they retracted EAB on the S/X for 2.5 hardware. So maybe these are related and it was far easier to not activate autopilot on the further roll out.

Didn't he say he needed to drive it about 50 hours to allow the cameras to calibrate before EAP would go active?

 

[Mike Smith]

Sooooo, here's the thing. Elon doesn't rest on his laurels.

If he had 0% doubt about meeting the December run rate of 5000 per week (250000 per year) -- and I do remember him saying that -- then that means that they already aiming at a higher internal target. It means that they are now working as hard as they possibly can to hit the run rate of 10000 per week (500000 per year) which is their actual targeted 2018 run rate. And he has some doubt about whether he can hit that by December.

No rest for the Tesla employees. (Which could become a morale problem, eventually.)

The great thing about Tesla having a reputation for demanding hard work is that it means no lazy people will even apply there - they know it would be an absolute nightmare job for them.

 

[schonelucht]

Didn't he say he needed to drive it about 50 hours to allow the cameras to calibrate before EAP would go active?

Don't think he did. Or if he did, I missed it and I would love a link.

 

[schonelucht]

The great thing about Tesla having a reputation for demanding hard work is that it means no lazy people will even apply there - they know it would be an absolute nightmare job for them.

Good programming is incentivised by laziness. I guarantee you their top programmers will all be lazy.

 

[erthquake]

Don't think he did. Or if he did, I missed it and I would love a link.

50 miles is what was said, actually, by a poster responding to Jon.

FAQ: Checklist of features for new owners to share

Though I haven't kept up with the thread over the last few days.

 

[schonelucht]

50 miles is what was said, actually, by a poster responding to Jon.

Thanks! Missed that one.

 

[neroden]

No, he said he had 0% doubt about hitting 10,000 /week by the end of 2018. He never said that about 5000/week in 2017.

OK, thanks for the correction. So thinking about the way Musk thinks... that means they're already planning and attempting to hit more than 10,000 / week by the end of 2018. Hmmm.

 

[mongo]

It's 4am where I am, so take this with a boulder of salt:
If you:
1 - had a product composed of a physical and a software aspect
2 - knew that the software aspect could be updated post physical production
3 - knew that the software aspect was not ready
4 - knew that the physical ramp aspect was the risk item
5 - had a large volume of space available
6 - had cash on hand to order parts

Would you wait until the SW was done before working out the issues on your assembly line?
OR:
Build the physical portion of the product to work out the manufacturing bugs, and queue the units while waiting for the software group to finish it up? (Meanwhile releasing a few units to your beta testers) Especially, if your product mix is limited such that you will not have unwanted configurations in inventory. (See most modern gaming consoles for reference material)

Same question if one of the suppliers of a late-in-the-assembly-order part is running slow.

Not an advice, just longing for a video of hundreds/ thousands of 3's streaming out of the Tesla Tower to Flight of the Valkyrie or some such.

 

[Drumheller]

It's 4am where I am, so take this with a boulder of salt:
If you:
1 - had a product composed of a physical and a software aspect
2 - knew that the software aspect could be updated post physical production
3 - knew that the software aspect was not ready
4 - knew that the physical ramp aspect was the risk item
5 - had a large volume of space available
6 - had cash on hand to order parts

Would you wait until the SW was done before working out the issues on your assembly line?
OR:
Build the physical portion of the product to work out the manufacturing bugs, and queue the units while waiting for the software group to finish it up? (Meanwhile releasing a few units to your beta testers) Especially, if your product mix is limited such that you will not have unwanted configurations in inventory. (See most modern gaming consoles for reference material)

Same question if one of the suppliers of a late-in-the-assembly-order part is running slow.

Not an advice, just longing for a video of hundreds/ thousands of 3's streaming out of the Tesla Tower to Flight of the Valkyrie or some such.

Where would the cars be stored? The new building at the Fremont factory?

 

[schonelucht]

Build the physical portion of the product to work out the manufacturing bugs, and queue the units while waiting for the software group to finish it up? (Meanwhile releasing a few units to your beta testers) Especially, if your product mix is limited such that you will not have unwanted configurations in inventory. (See most modern gaming consoles for reference material)

But
Would you then also claim that the select early release is due to rare problems that may crop up.
OR
Would you say that the select early release is because basic functionality is not ready.

 

[mongo]

But
Would you then also claim that the select early release is due to rare problems that may crop up.
OR
Would you say that the select early release is because basic functionality is not ready.

Oh, I wouldn't say anything. I'd just sit in the corner chuckling like an idiot...
See "The Back Freighter" by Steeleye Span.

"But why are you smiling?"
"I know something that you do not know"
"And what is that?"
"This is a fully operational dreadnaught (ok ver 0.5, but who's counting)"