Agree on all conclusions and Daimler is not yet investing to build cells. The Electrek article was talking about a new undertaking led by two ex Tesla execs, not Daimler. New company will be building cells, but those won't be available in even a minor way for many years. Thus the bear FUD that they and the other majors will catch up in a few years is fantasy.
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Agree on all conclusions and Daimler is not yet investing to build cells. The Electrek article was talking about a new undertaking led by two ex Tesla execs, not Daimler. New company will be building cells, but those won't be available in even a minor way for many years. Thus the bear FUD that they and the other majors will catch up in a few years is fantasy.
Ironically, the flurry of the announcements from everybody and their business partners does prove the seriousness of competition - ***from*** Tesla.
It becomes an undeniable fact that Tesla either already wreaked havoc on the sales of competitors, or ominously threatening to do so. And the war of press releases is just an external manifestation of the fear instilled in OEMs, and yet, at the same time, their arrogant complacency. It goes like this. When Tesla demonstrates the viability of the pure EV market, we will just swoop in, create a web of gazillion of partnerships, and take it over from the poor souls at Tesla, which will never be able to recoup money it sank for R&D, ultimately money spent on the creation of the EV market for us, because, you know, we will just deny them sales volume which they project. Whoa, we are smart! Everybody: high five!
The OEM boardrooms is a ***real*** asylum for delusional.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
dennis
Model S Plaid
Well I did see one enclosed car carrier entering the factory area and wondered why it was there...
dc_h
Active Member
I'm not very optimistic about TSLA this week. I think the shares may recover next week, but bears have already built an argument that Model 3 cashflow is the issue, trying to limit the positive impact of increasing sales and a successul launch of Model 3 production. I think S/X sales are likely going to be over 26000 and possibly close to 29000. Model 3 sales are likely to be about 500, regardless of production. It is likely they are either holding or have 3's in transit and preparing some rapid release cycles of software updates to get basic features running. Software gaps are highly likely at this point. They are starting with employees and NDA's for a reason. They are increasing their pilot audience, which will increase the feedback loop for regression testing, and giving them a headstart in the manufacturing cycle.
I hope strong numbers next week will give us a bounce, but am a bit concerned the bear argument is going to get traction until revenues and Model 3 numbers start hitting stride in Q4. Reading in CNBC this morning, even the bullish stories do not account for 20 billion in 2018 revenue, so I think the upside view will win over, but that could be delayed until Model 3 revenue starts in earnest and it becomes obvious that Wall Street estimates of 2018 revenues are based on bar and bear talk and not research of actual production plans and existing orders. The bear report guy that used to be the bad Apple analyst, is estimating 20 billion revenue in 2020. How do you get a bad rating covering Apple for a decade? There is probably no easier stock to pick since 2007.
I hope strong numbers next week will give us a bounce, but am a bit concerned the bear argument is going to get traction until revenues and Model 3 numbers start hitting stride in Q4. Reading in CNBC this morning, even the bullish stories do not account for 20 billion in 2018 revenue, so I think the upside view will win over, but that could be delayed until Model 3 revenue starts in earnest and it becomes obvious that Wall Street estimates of 2018 revenues are based on bar and bear talk and not research of actual production plans and existing orders. The bear report guy that used to be the bad Apple analyst, is estimating 20 billion revenue in 2020. How do you get a bad rating covering Apple for a decade? There is probably no easier stock to pick since 2007.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Already another 153 registrations in Norway today. Over 2100 for the quarter now
Model 3 production is really hard to gauge. There may be a pretty big gap between what has been produced so far and what has been delivered.
racer26
Active Member
I would agree Model 3 *deliveries* appear to be under 400 units. Not clear on production. There could be a lot of them in the transportation pipeline or sitting somewhere between production and delivery waiting for a software update.
Personally, I think that record S/X deliveries are far more material to the investment. Wall St may disagree.
Tesla's gotten remarkably good about hiding its testing cars. I wouldn't be surprised if they are getting better at hiding their inventory too. :shrug:
"Fluctuate. It will fluctuate." (To paraphrase J P Morgan)
Seriously, very very very very few people can predict short-term movements. I'm currently set up with short puts to automatically buy stock if it stays low through November, and to not do so if it doesn't. I'm quite convinced that the stock will be looking good by March, barring a bear market (and even in that case it will look *relatively* good).
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Production, Production, Production!
@austinEV and @AIMc Thumbs up! Please note PRODUCTION
Tour great, secretive at best Best information was night before while charging.
10,000 employees! What's wrong with that? Parts everywhere (well organized). Truck of batteries arrived and empty cargo car truck as we were pulling in as we arrived for our tour. Oh, and saw two loaded car transport tucks heading north that evening ~ saw them in our loaner. Love Xena with her 100D, loaner is a 75D.
I am flying low under the radar with a broken wing due to Xena, our MX was violated. Her back hatch glass was shattered and all our luggage removed, including our two iPads and personal info. No lectures please. I have been frantically blocking anything and almost everything while my sister has allowed us to stay here while Xena is repaired a hundred miles away.
I cannot say enough good things about the Dublin, CA Tesla service department and Brian the senior person we are dealing with. They are about about done, crossing my fingers, so we can limp back home to Olympia. Kids and GrandPups are willing to continue watching our dogs and my son-in-law replaced all the locks at the house since my keys were in my backpack along with luggage tags with address
My words for a bit will be few and far between as we move forward, and I apologize up front.
Grate news Xena is about done and will be SC'd before we arrive. My wife is about out the door.
If you are ever in Dublin, CA stop by and give a shout out to Brian and the whole Tesla team ~ Please
I also hope this makes sense, spelled correctly and all ~ gotta run or my wife will leave me here
@austinEV and @AIMc Thumbs up! Please note PRODUCTIONTour great, secretive at best
Best information was night before while charging.10,000 employees! What's wrong with that? Parts everywhere (well organized). Truck of batteries arrived and empty cargo car truck as we were pulling in as we arrived for our tour. Oh, and saw two loaded car transport tucks heading north that evening ~ saw them in our loaner. Love Xena with her 100D, loaner is a 75D.
I am flying low under the radar with a broken wing due to Xena, our MX was violated. Her back hatch glass was shattered and all our luggage removed, including our two iPads and personal info. No lectures please. I have been frantically blocking anything and almost everything while my sister has allowed us to stay here while Xena is repaired a hundred miles away.
I cannot say enough good things about the Dublin, CA Tesla service department and Brian the senior person we are dealing with. They are about about done, crossing my fingers, so we can limp back home to Olympia. Kids and GrandPups are willing to continue watching our dogs and my son-in-law replaced all the locks at the house since my keys were in my backpack along with luggage tags with address
My words for a bit will be few and far between as we move forward, and I apologize up front.
Grate news Xena is about done and will be SC'd before we arrive. My wife is about out the door.
If you are ever in Dublin, CA stop by and give a shout out to Brian and the whole Tesla team ~ Please
I also hope this makes sense, spelled correctly and all ~ gotta run or my wife will leave me here
erthquake
Active Member
Production, Production, Production!
Tour great, secretive at best
10,000 employees! What's wrong with that? Parts everywhere (well organized). Truck of batteries arrived and empty cargo car truck as we were pulling in as we arrived for our tour. Oh, and saw two loaded car transport tucks heading north that evening ~ saw them in our loaner. Love Xena with her 100D, loaner is a 75D.
I am flying low under the radar with a broken wing due to Xena, our MX was violated. Her back hatch glass was shattered and all our luggage removed, including our two iPads and personal info. No lectures please. I have been frantically blocking anything and almost everything while my sister has allowed us to stay here while Xena is repaired a hundred miles away.
I cannot say enough good things about the Dublin, CA Tesla service department and Brian the senior person we are dealing with. They are about about done, crossing my fingers, so we can limp back home to Olympia. Kids and GrandPups are willing to continue watching our dogs and my son-in-law replaced all the locks at the house since my keys were in my backpack along with luggage tags with address
My words for a bit will be few and far between as we move forward, and I apologize up front.
Grate news Xena is about done and will be SC'd before we arrive. My wife is about out the door.
If you are ever in Dublin, CA stop by and give a shout out to Brian and the whole Tesla team ~ Please
I also hope this makes sense, spelled correctly and all ~ gotta run or my wife will leave me here
Sorry to hear about the break-in. Hang in there, and thanks for the update!
Given the price action of recent, It seems to me the market is discounting a slow model 3 ramp, though not necessarily
A record s+x quarter.
Hard to say if the record quarter will punctuate a bottom in this recent slide.
The ramp is probably the dominant issue affecting the stock price, assurances
By management in this regard would be helpful.
A record s+x quarter.
Hard to say if the record quarter will punctuate a bottom in this recent slide.
The ramp is probably the dominant issue affecting the stock price, assurances
By management in this regard would be helpful.
erthquake
Active Member
Well, this is interesting.
Instagram post by D R E W • Sep 27, 2017 at 3:10pm UTC
Edit: bah! Beaten by geneclean55 in the Market Action thread.
Instagram post by D R E W • Sep 27, 2017 at 3:10pm UTC
Edit: bah! Beaten by geneclean55 in the Market Action thread.
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If Model S & X deliveries are strong and management indicates demand remains robust, Tesla is in very good shape. Frankly, I would not really care how the stock reacts in the short term, though I imagine it would bounce.
One question: Why is everyone so bullish right now on S & X deliveries? Can someone summarize that case? Sure, Norway deliveries are at a record; yes, management was pleased with demand at the time of the last conference call (a big relief for me); but for a strong quarter, demand would need to stay robust. I'm hopeful this is the case, but I have not seen other indications that would point in this direction. What are those other indications? I'm would greatly appreciate a quick summary, if someone cared to do so.
Last point I'll make on valuation since the question above was "what will the stock price do?" The tricky part of valuing Tesla is that it is such a unique situation. Previously, I've called it the first publicly traded, big cap, venture investment. I think that description still applies today, except that Tesla is now somewhat further along the venture trajectory while still retaining venture growth characteristics. When the outlook is sunny, Tesla will (and should) trade like a venture investment that can compound at very high rates for a lengthy period of time. Often companies like this trade at 5-10 times revenue. By the fourth quarter of '18, I expect Tesla to be on a run rate of $30-$35 billion -- and 5-10x that number is the upside scenario for market cap. By contrast, when investors become spooked about growth or financial sustainability, they apply more traditional big cap valuation metrics, or worse -- hence the terrific volatility in the stock.
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