2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[oneday]

Wrong forum. This is the investment forum

 

[electracity]

A strobe light to see robots work? On something where they are that big? That's nuts. Show me that at any other car makers, aircraft maker etc.

This is actually a big risk factor for Tesla. Musk even explained why: If one part of a tightly integrated process isn't working the workaround is really difficult.

 

[EinSV]

@imispgh has his very own "open letter" thread. I recommend that folks who think it is worthwhile having a discussion with him have a peek at that thread/rathole first, and if so inclined maybe move the discussion over there.

Open Letter to Elon Musk

 

[oneday]

I actually think Tesla will literally never get to L4. They use the wrong engineering approach. As most AV makers do. Clear proof of this is Waymo's paradigm shift recently. I realize how this sounds. I will provide a bit of my resume and links to an article I wrote that explains it in detail and provides links for all the information to prove it I site.

My name is Michael DeKort. I am a former systems engineer, engineering and program manager for Lockheed Martin. I worked in aircraft simulation, the Aegis Weapon System, NORAD and on C4ISR for DHS. I also worked in Commercial IT. Including cybersecurity. I received the IEEE Barus Ethics Award for whistleblowing regarding the DHS Deepwater program post 9/11.
•IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF:

Autonomous Levels 4 and 5 will never be reached without Simulation vs Public Shadow Driving for AI

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/autonomous-levels-4-5-never-reached-without-michael-dekort

The issue is not that they don't use simulation. It is the depth and breadth. It should replace most public shadow driving. Handover and public shadow driving (letting go of the wheel) cannot not be made safe over the long term or on most high speed, complex and dangerous situations. it has been proven over and over including by NASA. If you take 5 minutes to read my article and look at the data references it becomes very clear.

Wrong forum. This is the investment forum

Meant to quote this message woops

 

[imispgh]

I don't understand what you mean by this: "public shadow driving (letting go of the wheel)"

As far as I know they barely use shadow driving (which I describe as computing what AP would do without actually doing it, then comparing it to a human). And when they do use shadow driving it's for validation/testing, not for development/training.

It should not be done there either. Most of this should be in aerospace level simulation. Read about Waymo's recent sea change in their Safety Report. And Krafcik publicly pushing back on Tesla. The reason he is doing that is that he now realizes how wrong they were. And that those who continue this practice as they move to complex and dangerous situations are going to literally create casualties for no reason. When they first child or family is killed, for no reason, that will cause a massive negative effect on the whole industry.

Waymo's evolution on this should not be ignored. Don't just react out of emotion or because you think Elon can never be wrong. Do your due diligence. (BTW when SpaceX first gave their code to NASA in 2011 NASA failed it. They actually were very concerned about it. It was poorly tested and didn't handle exception well. They saved Elon. H then hired aerospace folks and fixed it. That is what is needed here. Only NHTSA punted.

 

[trils0n]

The issue is not that they don't use simulation. It is the depth and breadth. It should replace most public shadow driving. Handover and public shadow driving (letting go of the wheel) cannot not be made safe over the long term or on most high speed, complex and dangerous situations. it has been proven over and over including by NASA. If you take 5 minutes to read my article and look at the data references it becomes very clear.

It has been pointed out many times in other threads (including your own thread about your "open letter") that you do not understand Tesla's shadow mode.

Please stop posting your "open letter" in so many threads. The investors forum is not the appropriate place.

 

[MartinAustin]

Who does performance reviews for 700 people and lets them all go at once? Especially at the end of the year and when you are behind?

You're kinda naive. I worked at Microsoft and Electronic Arts for many years, and saw both companies routinely layoff hundreds, or even over a thousand workers, every year - when they think that is merited.
Visceral Games Joins A Long List Of Studios Closed By EA

 

[imispgh]

@imispgh has his very own "open letter" thread. I recommend that folks who think it is worthwhile having a discussion with him have a peek at that thread/rathole first.

Open Letter to Elon Musk

The link was meant to avoid repasting. As for "rathole" those who cannot make objective points to disprove something usually resort to lashing out. Elon did it today several times in the call. Why not rise above that. take the issue seriously, do your homework and respond accordingly?

 

[MartinAustin]

A strobe light to see robots work? On something where they are that big? That's nuts. Show me that at any other car makers, aircraft maker etc.

He was saying if you wanted to see the robots, they're moving so fast you'd need to flash a strobe light at them to see them.

However, people don't stand around watching the robots normally. There won't be any strobe lights in use at the factory.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The issue is not that they don't use simulation. It is the depth and breadth. It should replace most public shadow driving. Handover and public shadow driving (letting go of the wheel) cannot not be made safe over the long term or on most high speed, complex and dangerous situations. it has been proven over and over including by NASA. If you take 5 minutes to read my article and look at the data references it becomes very clear.

Read your article, what do you know about what Tesla is doing with simulation?

 

[EinSV]

The link was meant to avoid repasting. As for "rathole" those who cannot make objective points to disprove something usually resort to lashing out. Elon did it today several times in the call. Why not rise above that. take the issue seriously, do your homework and respond accordingly?

LOL your arguments have already been addressed by many others in your thread and that IMO was a complete waste of time since you don't seem interested in facts or logic.

Incidentally, this is an Investor Roundtable thread. Are you an investor and/or short seller?

 

[imispgh]

You're kinda naive. I worked at Microsoft and Electronic Arts for many years, and saw both companies routinely layoff hundreds, or even over a thousand workers, every year - when they think that is merited.
Visceral Games Joins A Long List Of Studios Closed By EA

Wasn't my point. I worked at Lockheed and managed hundreds in an organization with tens of thousands in a company with hundreds of thousands. The only time you let that many folks go at the end of the year especially when things are behind is when there is a RIF. You do not jam your HR group and the same managers you need to catch up, who are apparently in OT "hell", with interviews etc during the holidays. I don't care who you site. It's not the right or best way to do it.

 

[imispgh]

LOL your arguments have already been addressed by many others in your thread and that IMO was a complete waste of time since you don't seem interested in facts or logic.

Incidentally, this is an Investor Roundtable thread. Are you an investor and/or short seller?

Not and investor or short seller. Do just a little DD instead of responding without doing none.

 

[JRP3]

imispgh/DeKort has been spamming comment sections on other sites about this same topic for quite while now, sorry to see him invade this board now.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don't care who you site.

I was confused the first time you used this word in a previous post, but now I think what you're looking for is 'cite'.

 

[kbM3]

@imispgh has his very own "open letter" thread. I recommend that folks who think it is worthwhile having a discussion with him have a peek at that thread/rathole first, and if so inclined maybe move the discussion over there.

Open Letter to Elon Musk

I’ve already put them on ignore.

 

[Waiting4M3]

LOL your arguments have already been addressed by many others in your thread and that IMO was a complete waste of time since you don't seem interested in facts or logic.

Incidentally, this is an Investor Roundtable thread. Are you an investor and/or short seller?

imispgh/DeKort has been spamming comment sections on other sites about this same topic for quite while now, sorry to see him invade this board now.

Thank you. That helps clean up the thread for me.

 

[imispgh]

Responding without discussing the low level details or specific merits of pints people make, like playing shoot the messenger or guessing, or throwing out hyperbole is usually a clear demonstration you have no valid push back. I provided the links to an extremely detailed article with links to tons of data sources. Studies, NASA, other AV makers etc. The issue is a serious one and should be treated as such.

 

[JBRR]

theme music for tonight

Reddit - Wine Drunk, Alone, and Kind of Sad, a playlist by Nathan Broadbent on Spotify

 

[JRP3]

Responding without discussing the low level details or specific merits of pints people make, like playing shoot the messenger or guessing, or throwing out hyperbole is usually a clear demonstration you have no valid push back. I provided the links to an extremely detailed article with links to tons of data sources. Studies, NASA, other AV makers etc. The issue is a serious one and should be treated as such.

What part of "wrong thread" are you incapable of comprehending? You've already created a thread for the topic, that's where it should be discussed.