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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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As we discussed in August, and now confirmed on the latest earnings call, labor is a primary limiting factor for Tesla's growth.

"Tesla University" should have been established years ago.
Just wait till they pass the tax bill and gut EV incentive, and Tesla can hire all the EV engineers that the traditional automakers will be laying off.
 
adding to Tesla's headache.. other car brands have developed a faster charger than supercharger.

Joint ‘ultra-fast’ electric car charging network unveiled by BMW, Mercedes, Ford and Volkswagen
Those chargers typically feed four stalls, and the CCS specs call out a connector rated for 200A @ 850V. Given that just about every EV out there is architected with a ~400V pack, it's unclear if you'd see much more than about 80KW from one of those chargers. And it just so happens that 80KW x 4 stalls = right around the capacity of one of those chargers.

For all practical purposes any actual car that plugs in to one of those will see lesser power delivery than one of Tesla's superchargers... more like the 1/2 power rated "Urban Chargers" that tesla has started installing in parking structures.
 
[TR][TD]YEAR /[/TD] [TD] Deliveries [/TD] [TD] ANNUAL % GROWTH[/TD] [TD] CAGR%[/TD] [TD]REVENUE $MM[/TD] [TD] ANNUAL % GROWTH[/TD] [TD] CAGR%[/TD] [/TR]
[TR][TD]2013 /[/TD] [TD] 22,442 [/TD] [TD] NA[/TD] [TD] NA[/TD] [TD]$2013.5[/TD] [TD] NA[/TD] [TD] NA[/TD] [/TR]
[TR][TD]2014 /[/TD] [TD] 31,655 [/TD] [TD] 41%[/TD] [TD] 41%[/TD] [TD]$3,198.5[/TD] [TD] 59%[/TD] [TD] 59%[/TD] [/TR]
[TR][TD]2015 /[/TD] [TD] 50,866 [/TD] [TD] 60%[/TD] [TD] 50%[/TD] [TD]$4,046.0[/TD] [TD] 26%[/TD] [TD] 41.6%[/TD] [/TR]
[TR][TD]2016 /[/TD] [TD] 76,233 [/TD] [TD]50% [/TD] [TD] 51%[/TD] [TD]$7,000.1[/TD] [TD] 73%[/TD] [TD] 51.8%[/TD] [/TR]
[TR][TD]2017 /[/TD] [TD] 100,00(e) [/TD] [TD] 31%[/TD] [TD] 45%[/TD] [TD]$11,295[/TD] [TD] 61%[/TD] [TD] 53.4%[/TD] [/TR]
[/TABLE]

The CAGR% numbers sure would be even better if you included one more year in there, I'm sure that was a coincidental time-frame you selected. How about CAGR since ipo year? hmm..
 
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A start would be if Tesla could reverse the trend of ever increasing bottom line losses so that they start getting smaller rather than larger. The losses for the most recent year have been:

4Q16 $121.3 million
1Q17 $330.3 million
2Q17 $336.9 million
3Q16 $619.4 million

I suspect the trend will continue for at least another quarter since the SH letter's Outlook section stated:

"Due to a higher mix of temporarily lower margin Model 3 deliveries in Q4 compared to Q3, we expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin to temporarily decline slightly in Q4 to about 15% and then recover starting in Q1."

I saw your post and it made remember something from the call that really spiked my interest so I had to go back and see if I heard this right:

Transcript said:
John Joseph Murphy, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst [35]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just a question on quarterly cash flow for the fourth quarter and the first quarter. I mean, it sounds like, obviously, there's some delays here on the Model 3, which is understandable, given the complexity. I'm just curious, as we think about cash flow for the next 2 quarters, would we think about them relatively similarly to what we just saw in the third quarter plus what you would -- whatever you would sell out of inventory so it might be a bit better? I'm just trying to understand, Deepak, how much of that $2.5 billion in the inventory is finished goods that you might be able to sell out of in the fourth quarter.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deepak Ahuja, Tesla, Inc. - CFO [36]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, firstly, as we continue to ramp up Model 3, our cash flow of operations is going to increase or improve significantly over the next few quarters. And it's -- this is the positive virtuous cycle of cash flow of working capital that Model 3 provides us, because we effectively pay our suppliers later when we collect from our customers. And also, this quarter, our CapEx payments will start to decline as we pay off, over the next couple of quarters, all the remaining Model 3-related CapEx. So there should be an improving trend over the next 2, 3 quarters.

I recall a lot of FUD around cash burn, but what is clear to me is that with 3.5B in cash on hand and only 2 quarters left of CAPEX for Model 3, the light at the end of the tunnel. They also spoke a lot about the capex going from 5k/w to 10k/w being signifanctly less and probably not even noticed because well they will be producing 5k cars a week and all the cash flow that comes with them. Of course, I dont know how much of GF1 is related to this comment or if any is, but those costs are shared with Panasonic and it does seem to be starting to generate its own revenue to offset some capex, more then Model 3 so far.
 
How many cars has Tesla delivered in South Korea, Taiwan, Portugal, UAE, and Mexico? What have been the costs to operate in each respective country those stores, service centers, and superchargers and the expense of obtaining regulatory approvals to import and sell vehicles in those jurisdictions? How do those "very good ROIs" in those respective countries compare to Tesla's returns in the Californian and Norwegian markets?

Peace of Mind while vacationing in Mexico by tooling around in a $100+k "yank tank" is essential.

You know Tesla doesn't give that granular information.

In Europe and Japan, Model S may be considered a "yank tank" not in Mexico.

And a Model S can be for as little as $37k. And soon Model 3s will be driving around Mexico.
 
This from Gene Munster - corroborated yesterday with a Tesla engineer that they have achieved milestones that others would have taken a couple of years to do. The engineers will say to Musk, "it'll take 6 months" and he'll say "what do you need to do it in 2?" ;) So the job will get done but definitely not at Musk's timeline.

As every major car company is vying to be a major player in the forthcoming transportation battleground, Munster raises the curtain to the future of the electric vehicle (EV) market and autonomy. While 8 auto makers rule the pack today, a decade from now, the analyst believes only 3 to 5 will “own the market for EV and autonomy,” with just two to three of those companies in the tech-verse. Therefore, as far as Munster sees the grand auto OEMs picture, two to three of eight heavyweight auto OEMs now “will be relevant in the future.”

Right now, “Tesla is struggling to produce the Model 3, and at the same time firmly holds its pole position in EV and autonomy,” and though CEO Elon Musk has listed causes behind the challenges nipping at Tesla’s heels, to put it simply: “it’s hard to make a car that advanced for that price at scale,” argues the analyst.

However, though the analyst poses the question asking where Tesla falls in the transportation race, he remains positive on this tech giant: “The reason why Tesla’s manufacturing struggles don’t suggest their falling behind is none of the other auto OEMs have started EV project as ambitious as Model 3. These OEMs have EV offerings, but consumers largely don’t want to buy them so the OEM don’t have to travel through ‘manufacturing hell’ like Tesla is today.”

At the same time, consider the “wild card” that is the autonomy arena, where the majority of car makers are taking over other companies just to have fighting relevance and importance in the future of autonomy. Munster gives competitive threat to Waymo, who has not only made strides but is testing in various places across the country. Nonetheless, do not rule out Musk’s electric car giant, as the analyst asserts that unlike other car manufacturers who cannot even make “a claim close,” “Tesla has all of the hardware (they think) being added to their vehicles today for autonomy.”

“Bottom line,” Munster concludes, odds here even after a challenging third quarter remain with Tesla: “Even if you soften Musk’s hype (i.e. Model 3 production ramp will be liken to a jet fighter in a vertical climb) with a dose of reality, Tesla is still in the driver’s seat (pun intended) to be one of only a few winners in the future of transportation.”

Wall Street is not convinced that Musk’s tech empire’s reward is worth all the risk, especially when taking note that TipRanks analytics exhibit TSLA as a Hold. Based on 21 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 5 rate a Buy on Tesla stock, 8 maintain a Hold, while 8 issue a Sell on the stock. The 12-month average price target stands at $313.00, marking a nearly 5% upside from where the stock is currently trading.
 
This from Gene Munster - corroborated yesterday with a Tesla engineer that they have achieved milestones that others would have taken a couple of years to do. The engineers will say to Musk, "it'll take 6 months" and he'll say "what do you need to do it in 2?" ;) So the job will get done but definitely not at Musk's timeline.

As every major car company is vying to be a major player in the forthcoming transportation battleground, Munster raises the curtain to the future of the electric vehicle (EV) market and autonomy. While 8 auto makers rule the pack today, a decade from now, the analyst believes only 3 to 5 will “own the market for EV and autonomy,” with just two to three of those companies in the tech-verse. Therefore, as far as Munster sees the grand auto OEMs picture, two to three of eight heavyweight auto OEMs now “will be relevant in the future.”

Right now, “Tesla is struggling to produce the Model 3, and at the same time firmly holds its pole position in EV and autonomy,” and though CEO Elon Musk has listed causes behind the challenges nipping at Tesla’s heels, to put it simply: “it’s hard to make a car that advanced for that price at scale,” argues the analyst.

However, though the analyst poses the question asking where Tesla falls in the transportation race, he remains positive on this tech giant: “The reason why Tesla’s manufacturing struggles don’t suggest their falling behind is none of the other auto OEMs have started EV project as ambitious as Model 3. These OEMs have EV offerings, but consumers largely don’t want to buy them so the OEM don’t have to travel through ‘manufacturing hell’ like Tesla is today.”

At the same time, consider the “wild card” that is the autonomy arena, where the majority of car makers are taking over other companies just to have fighting relevance and importance in the future of autonomy. Munster gives competitive threat to Waymo, who has not only made strides but is testing in various places across the country. Nonetheless, do not rule out Musk’s electric car giant, as the analyst asserts that unlike other car manufacturers who cannot even make “a claim close,” “Tesla has all of the hardware (they think) being added to their vehicles today for autonomy.”

“Bottom line,” Munster concludes, odds here even after a challenging third quarter remain with Tesla: “Even if you soften Musk’s hype (i.e. Model 3 production ramp will be liken to a jet fighter in a vertical climb) with a dose of reality, Tesla is still in the driver’s seat (pun intended) to be one of only a few winners in the future of transportation.”

Wall Street is not convinced that Musk’s tech empire’s reward is worth all the risk, especially when taking note that TipRanks analytics exhibit TSLA as a Hold. Based on 21 analysts polled by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 5 rate a Buy on Tesla stock, 8 maintain a Hold, while 8 issue a Sell on the stock. The 12-month average price target stands at $313.00, marking a nearly 5% upside from where the stock is currently trading.

In an interview yesterday on CNBC, Munster also reiterated that he expects Tesla to be the "top-performing large cap tech stock over the next 5 years." Tesla will be 'best performing' big tech stock in the next 5 years, analyst says
 
This from Gene Munster - corroborated yesterday with a Tesla engineer that they have achieved milestones that others would have taken a couple of years to do. The engineers will say to Musk, "it'll take 6 months" and he'll say "what do you need to do it in 2?" ;) So the job will get done but definitely not at Musk's timeline.

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An in-depth article from Jalopnik on Tesla's current situation. It's quite negative, but even though some readers may conclude it's a hit piece, others may find it informative.

They can’t beat this beautiful “reporting” by FT

Newly-installed Kuka robots designed to speed up production are still being operated by hand, according to two people who visited the site in recent weeks.

First, they said the cars were made by hand. Now that the video evidence disprove that FUD, it is actually the robots themselves being operated by hand!! LOL.
How can you even operate a Kilauea robot by hand??? The precision required to align by hand makes it impossible

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