2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether or not management's 25% gross margin guidance for Model 3 in the quarter following when production reaches 5k/w includes FSD take rate rising as FSD-exclusive features are introduced?

 

[Lessmog]

So WSJ is now saying there is plenty of batteries, but 2 days ago they said there is not enough Cobalt to make the batteries.

Will Tesla Die for Lack of Cobalt?

tough to get your fact straight if it ain't actually fact.

Next story: "Will Tesla be drowning of thirst?" (Click and pay to read the newest conspiracy theory)

 

[doctoxics]

So WSJ is now saying there is plenty of batteries, but 2 days ago they said there is not enough Cobalt to make the batteries.

Will Tesla Die for Lack of Cobalt?

tough to get your fact straight if it ain't actually fact.

Lots of speculation from those with hidden agendas and little knowledge. Considering new government requirements, new electric vehicle programs, the current production of lithium ion batteries, and the time to build new battery factories, not hard to reach the conclusion that a major shortage of batteries will soon be (is) upon us. Perhaps a decade for battery production to catch up with electric transportation.

 

[TrendTrader007]

First time I laughed in weeks
Super hilarious

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks for posting. Did you happen to notice who created that parody of a scene from the film "Der Untergang (Downfall)"?

Hey Curt! I didn’t realize it was you until I went to YouTube. You already got over 20K well deserved view. I hope it goes viral. Great job dude!

 

[elasalle]

So WSJ is now saying there is plenty of batteries, but 2 days ago they said there is not enough Cobalt to make the batteries.

Will Tesla Die for Lack of Cobalt?

tough to get your fact straight if it ain't actually fact.

the 1st line in that article was like "Most likely Not" ... so definitely click bait

 

[DragonWatch]

Unfortunately, we have a broken political system because the Constitution is defective.

A majority of the Cabinet could get Trump removed for failure to perform his duties (25th amendment), but the Cabinet -- despite nearly all hating Trump and thinking he's an idiot -- are a bunch of idiots themselves and also cowards, so they won't do it.

The Congress could of course impeach Trump for his apparent dementia and ranting -- that's what the first successful impeachment of a judge, Pickering, was for -- but Congress is full of some very stupid people who think "allying with the President" is more important than *survival of the country*, and although impeachment would easily get a majority in the Senate, Madison stupidly made it require a *2/3* vote.

In some countries there is a procedure for state governors to initiate the removal of a federal head of government. If we had such a procedure, I'm pretty sure Trump would be gone already. But we don't.

Trump's erratic behavior means that both Republicans and Democrats should strongly prefer Pence. But too many Republicans in the Cabinet and the Senate don't seem to be able to think beyond tomorrow morning.

So, the reassuring thing: I don't think Trump has any real supporters in the government at all. All the leaks from the Cabinet describe it as a "day care center" for a single toddler. We already have seen that Trump is quite incapable of implementing policy because he doesn't fill staff positions and those staff who are in place push back against anything he tries to do.

So we wouldn't have to worry too much about Trump causing WWIII *if the military knows that its duty is to the country and Constitution and not to Trump*. Unfortunately, I am not at all sure that the military leaders realize this. However, it is a good sign that the defense secretary is disgusted by Trump.

I hear and understand your frustration; but the perspective is off.

Since the seventies people have been yelling that we treat our government as a corporation. The military took that to heart and you now see our military complex. Once you steel yourself to that fact that since the seventies our government has become a corporation then you can clearly see the current path ~ I see the path like watching the Enterprise careening across the landscape of some unknown planet. Not a lot of the crew survived as I recall:-( , just the hero's according to hollywood.

Going back to the US Corporation; just like any other corporation, it needs money to survive or the Bears and Short Bears begin to feast on the carcass. Unlike a business model corporation, the US Corporation cannot just sell widgets. So, the next best thing is to sell off natural resources, your soul, human lives (war) and enslave human resources.

Militarily speaking the reason Kings stopped building Castles was because the sedge tactic ended up with the King being killed or taken prisoner. Substitute King for democracy and you will understand my analogy in the business/military world. The same will happen here, mark my word as a military strategist:-( Or, my private business experience as a stone sculpture from early 2000 ended in 2005 as I watched that economy crash down upon us. Yes, if you dislike me; I am sure you will complain about my ability to sculpt.

The current Tax Cut as it stands and regardless if any reader is for or against; up or down, left or right, is ensuring a feast for those that are Short the US Corporation. This is the sedge mentality or military sedge tactic. Why do you not see Castles anymoore? If I was rich enough I sure as heck would be shorting the US Corporation! Oh wait, I would be on the wrong side:-(

EDIT: What's the difference between a rock and a stone? You pay for the stone Yes, Carrara Marble from Italy Title: Pinch Me. Yes, my right hand ~ had to look at the pic again. Just saying I am not all work and no military play Have a good weekend.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think this bitcoin mania is great for Tesla. It's finally getting young people interested in investing, and we know which stock young people like to buy... Hopefully a lot of hem make enough to buy roadsters and some TSLA.

I also feel very confident that some large company like Tencent or Softbank is accumulating a Tesla position. There are lot of these companies out there and they have a lot of cash they're looking to spend. Tesla is obviously in a temporarily weakened state so I find it hard to imagine someone isn't taking advantage. The downside form here is someone buys Tesla for $30B , and the upside is limitless. The shorts are doing everything they can to get the chart to break down but someone keeps sopping up all the shares.

 

[justin w]

007 on Twitter

lol. He is worst than Ron Baron with his delusional guesses.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think this bitcoin mania is great for Tesla. It's finally getting young people interested in investing, and we know which stock young people like to buy... Hopefully a lot of hem make enough to buy roadsters and some TSLA.

I also feel very confident that some large company like Tencent or Softbank is accumulating a Tesla position. There are lot of these companies out there and they have a lot of cash they're looking to spend. Tesla is obviously in a temporarily weakened state so I find it hard to imagine someone isn't taking advantage. The downside form here is someone buys Tesla for $30B , and the upside is limitless. The shorts are doing everything they can to get the chart to break down but someone keeps sopping up all the shares.

I agree with you. It's an open secret now: Tesla's potential addressable market is more than 15 trillion dollars. No other company is in a better position pursing these markets (Tesla Network, Autonomous EV, energy generation and storage). If Tesla is for sale, Tencent and Alibaba alone would bid to 100 billion dollars. In addition, there are Google and Apple which also have insane amount of cash and eager to take the gem.

I can't predict short term stock moves, from longer term view, minimum is a double, most likely a 20~30 fold. Elon is very confident we will get there. My spread sheet (sales and net margin estimates) shows by 2028 the stock price will be more than $9000. There is another up leg afterwards.

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[Todd Burch]

Model3 VIN 1910 spotted:
Highest production VIN in the wild

 

[justin w]

I agree with you. It's an open secret now: Tesla's potential addressable market is more than 15 trillion dollars. No other company is in a better position pursing these markets (Tesla Network, Autonomous EV, energy generation and storage). If Tesla is for sale, Tencent and Alibaba alone would bid to 100 billion dollars. In addition, there are Google and Apple which also have insane amount of cash and eager to take the gem.

I can't predict short term stock moves, from longer term view, minimum is a double, most likely a 20~30 fold. Elon is very confident we will get there. My spread sheet (sales and net margin estimates) shows by 2028 the stock price will be more than $9000. There is another up leg afterwards.

Before you fantasize how much Tesla dollars you can potentially make, Tesla can't even get its model 3 assembly line straight. The last month's M3 delivery figures is beyond pathetic. M3 won't see 5k/week for a very very long time.

I am starting to see Elon is a bust.

 

[goinfraftw]

I am starting to see Elon is a bust.

I see your statement and raise you one article refuting your point.

 

[justin w]

Model3 VIN 1910 spotted:
Highest production VIN in the wild

VIN 1910 doesn't equal to total number of car produced is at 1910. Currently, The total number of M3 delivery is standing at 712.

 

[Navin]

VIN 1910 doesn't equal to total number of car produced is at 1910. Currently, The total number of M3 delivery is standing at 712.

I’d be posting a ton here if I was short also.

 

[generalenthu]

This is insanity if true.. love it, love it.

@ElonMusk: Payload will be my midnight cherry Tesla Roadster playing Space Oddity. Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent. • r/spacex

 

[Waiting4M3]

This is insanity if true.. love it, love it.

@ElonMusk: Payload will be my midnight cherry Tesla Roadster playing Space Oddity. Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent. • r/spacex

View attachment 264052

Gen 1 Roadster. I guess he would have to pry a Gen 2 out of the cold dead hands of Franz.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Here is an update to the VIN sighting trend, it's looking more like step functions with exponential increase, the rise in the vertical axis (VIN) becomes increasingly larger, and the time for each step in the horizontal axis becomes increasingly shorter:

 

[bambam4171]

That looks almost like hmm, how should I put that? Exponential curve?


Thanks for confirming!