Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Good, you are driving the discussion in the right direction. Maintenance! I almost feel like the husband in the movie Mrs Robertson telling a Dustin that “Plasics” is the thing of the future. The S & X are on an annual/12.5K maintenance plan as opposed to 5K ICE maintenance plans. Elon just put out there a Semi maintenance plan that gave goose bumps to the mechanics. Another job reclassification/retraining program up and coming for ICE mechanics. While Tesla’s maintenance program will grow, it will be marginal compared to the reduction in force (RIF) of ICE maintenance workers.

Next, note that someone here used the word “lie” in discussion of VW. This concep of “fake news” (fN) is not new to VW as a corporation.

Again referencing fN and GM, if I am correct, is losing big bucks on sales right now, but had some recent success with driverless programming, and all of a sudden they are touted as a successful threat against Tesla’s autopilot. I do not use drugs, but that was an inhaled nose full:) I have not seen pictures of these GM cars, but if they look anything like the Volvo and Google version with a bunch of crap on the roof of the car then let’s start talking about the ICE fossil fuel consumption. There is where the major automotive industry will make their money/EV tax incentive along with more maintenance. Yes, some are now beginning to slide to the EV side for driverless cars, but aerodynamics are still affected.

I have made fun of Apple and their innovative lack of momentum over the last few years, and I refer to it as lacking iWind. Traditional ICE manufactures in this political environment of lies/fN will do whatever it takes to blind their employees, sales force and the audience/buyers; thus creating an iWind.

Now, what about the little guy on the block? Again taking into account the almost newly enacted tax incentive program. He/she will deal with the tax plan in a survival mode. Humm? Half the cost of fuel for an EV vs ICE car:) Half or better less $$$ for EV maintenance Tesla vs GM (Et al). Hey, I can rent out my M3 vs any other brand while I am not using it. Remember, Uber is nervous about Tesla’s plans with this concept. Joe citizen might just opt to not buy any of these options and just call Tesla for a lift.

Todays economy is like watching the novice farmer cut the head off a chicken. Blood and dust flying everywhere as the headless chickens body reacts to the loss. But the cat, Tesla, waits twitching it’s tail eyeing the headless chickens every movement. While the farmer reacts to a call on his cell phone, the cat pounces:)

Maintenance plays a major factor in the dynamics of decision making of buying a car ~ okay at least for the human race with a brighter light on the human chandelier:)

My model X has 24,000 miles and all I have paid for is one rotation of the tires ($70), which anyone can do and most do for free. I paid because I had it in with Tesla already and asked them to do it, I wont make that mistake again. I do need new tires though, so if you include conti-silents then it would be closer to $1500 for the first year and 24k miles. Most do not include tires in maintenance.
 
Elon Musk's Boring Company Seeks First Contract -- in Chicago

<Snip>
Hyperloop was envisioned as "an ultra high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric pods traveling at 600+ miles per hour in a pressurized cabin" running through vacuum-sealed tubes. (Emphasis added.) In contrast, Loop, says Boring, will be (merely) "a high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric skates traveling at 125-150 miles per hour. Electric skates will carry between 8 and 16 passengers (mass transit), or a single passenger vehicle."

See the emphasis? Loop will operate underground. It will not be "pressurized," because it will not be running in a vacuum. And it will run considerably slower than Hyperloop. Still, at 125-150 mph, Loop should complete the 18.1-mile distance between O'Hare and downtown in somewhere between 7 minutes, 14 seconds and 8 minutes, 41 seconds -- twice as fast as what Chicago was hoping for.

Why this might interest Musk
To date, pilot projects to build various flavors of Hyperloop have yet to result in any concrete, paying contracts for Musk. The Boring Company's slower-speed ambitions, in contrast, could result in a faster payday for Musk. As for how much it might pay, and how quickly it might pay off, well ...

The O'Hare-Downtown train route would be offered on a concession basis. That is to say, Chicago would not own it, and Chicago taxpayers would not pay to build it. Rather, the builder (Boring, for example) would be allowed to charge whatever it wants, within the established sub-$40-a-trip parameters, to recover its cost of construction and operation.

How much might this project cost Musk? No cost estimate has yet been floated for building a Loop. That said, cost estimates for building a technologically more difficult, and presumably more expensive HyperLoop range anywhere from $5 million to $20 million per mile. For an 18.1-mile project, therefore, we're probably talking less than $90 million to $360 million in total construction costs -- easily affordable for someone of Musk's net worth. What's more, even at the upper end of that cost estimate, 9 million fare-paying rides should suffice to pay for construction -- less than one year's annual traffic through O'Hare.


I have no idea if his estimate for boring tunnels is correct. My guess is that they are not.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
Elon Musk's Boring Company Seeks First Contract -- in Chicago

<Snip>
Hyperloop was envisioned as "an ultra high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric pods traveling at 600+ miles per hour in a pressurized cabin" running through vacuum-sealed tubes. (Emphasis added.) In contrast, Loop, says Boring, will be (merely) "a high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported on autonomous electric skates traveling at 125-150 miles per hour. Electric skates will carry between 8 and 16 passengers (mass transit), or a single passenger vehicle."

See the emphasis? Loop will operate underground. It will not be "pressurized," because it will not be running in a vacuum. And it will run considerably slower than Hyperloop. Still, at 125-150 mph, Loop should complete the 18.1-mile distance between O'Hare and downtown in somewhere between 7 minutes, 14 seconds and 8 minutes, 41 seconds -- twice as fast as what Chicago was hoping for.

Why this might interest Musk
To date, pilot projects to build various flavors of Hyperloop have yet to result in any concrete, paying contracts for Musk. The Boring Company's slower-speed ambitions, in contrast, could result in a faster payday for Musk. As for how much it might pay, and how quickly it might pay off, well ...

The O'Hare-Downtown train route would be offered on a concession basis. That is to say, Chicago would not own it, and Chicago taxpayers would not pay to build it. Rather, the builder (Boring, for example) would be allowed to charge whatever it wants, within the established sub-$40-a-trip parameters, to recover its cost of construction and operation.

How much might this project cost Musk? No cost estimate has yet been floated for building a Loop. That said, cost estimates for building a technologically more difficult, and presumably more expensive HyperLoop range anywhere from $5 million to $20 million per mile. For an 18.1-mile project, therefore, we're probably talking less than $90 million to $360 million in total construction costs -- easily affordable for someone of Musk's net worth. What's more, even at the upper end of that cost estimate, 9 million fare-paying rides should suffice to pay for construction -- less than one year's annual traffic through O'Hare.


I have no idea if his estimate for boring tunnels is correct. My guess is that they are not.
Why do you think the estimate is incorrect? Is it too good to be true? What if someone outside of Tesla had told you on Nov 15 that Roadster 2 would have a 200kwh pack and 620 mi range and cost only $200K? or that a semi with 500 mi range would cost less than that?
 
I know something about how to do tunnel-boring estimates from the ground up. The thing is, there's a very real sense in which the the expensive part is usually *not* boring the straight-line tunnel, but building the access points at either end. Portals to a surface terminus are less expensive than underground stations but still problematically expensive, and both are quite slow compared to the tunnel per se. I've said for a while that Musk has been looking at the wrong problems here...
 
Very true for all the ICE auto makers. Their neglect of batteries they would need (if they were serious about selling millions of EVs not tens of thousands) spells their doom or marginalization over the coming years. Except for Tesla. Cell energy density improvements have been the major reason or sole reason MS cells have 40% more capacity than Roadster cells. JB a year back in a public talk said M3 had 30% more energy capacity than S/X.
As soon as the traditional oem’s can purchase based st a price that make EV’s cost the the same or less than ICE’s they will start seriously trying to complete.

JB said that they would have, and it doesn’t look like they have hit that goal.
 
Tesla sales up 675 % (MS) and 1700% (MX) YoY in Spain for November.

Huge increase of electric vehicles sales in Spain last November, TESLA included

Explanation: the supercharger network in Spain has improved tremendously over the last year, and is almost covering Spain entirely, and already reaching comfortable density in the eastern part of Spain. This means that a Model S/X is now a car that can replace any other car in Spain. I expect to see the same effect over the next year in Portugal as the Supercharger network starts to cover the western part of the Iberian peninsula.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: MitchJi
I know something about how to do tunnel-boring estimates from the ground up. The thing is, there's a very real sense in which the the expensive part is usually *not* boring the straight-line tunnel, but building the access points at either end. Portals to a surface terminus are less expensive than underground stations but still problematically expensive, and both are quite slow compared to the tunnel per se. I've said for a while that Musk has been looking at the wrong problems here...
You have been quite vocal about the efficiencies of rail to move people, from a to b. However, I think the Boring approach might be to extend the travel beyond the a and b to z, y, and z, by having multiple entrances and exits from the tunnel(s). Likely there will be moderate sized say pods that leave when filled, so wait time would be low, but also smaller pods. The pods would not just travel to a and b, but also could deliver there passengers to their ultimate destination.
So less efficient from a to b, but likely much more efficient from a to z.
 
Explanation: the supercharger network in Spain has improved tremendously over the last year, and is almost covering Spain entirely, and already reaching comfortable density in the eastern part of Spain. This means that a Model S/X is now a car that can replace any other car in Spain. I expect to see the same effect over the next year in Portugal as the Supercharger network starts to cover the western part of the Iberian peninsula.

Likely it was due mostly to the recently threatened prohibition against diesel and perhaps gasoline cars in Madrid center city. Madrilenos are worried that their ICE cars will be worthless soon.
 
upload_2017-12-4_22-45-44.png


Source: Andrej Karpathy on Twitter

- The NIPS conference has become the AI hiring event of the year
- Big tech firms like Google, Facebook, and Microsoft send armies of people to try to find machine learning experts to join their ranks
- Salaries on offer often run into the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

It is interesting that Jim Keller will be there as well. I hope that this event will be recorded.
 
Last edited:
Project Tim revealed: Steelmaker planning sprawling plant in rural Durand

  • Plant would focus on new steel technology
  • New Steel International seeks $7 billion federal loan
  • Massive project has been subject of wide speculation
CD112009911.PNG


Rest of content deleted by moderator. It is against the rules (and copyright law) to post the entire content of an article from another site. -- ggr.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Was hoping it was someone else...
But..
Maybe...
It could still be...
"
New Steel International Inc. CEO John Schultes confirmed Monday that his company is one of several pursuing a project to build a multibillion-dollar manufacturing facility that it has kept under wraps for months using the code name "Project Tim."

"It's a little too early to really go public with things," Schultes said in a telephone interview with Crain's. "There are a lot of companies trying to make this happen."
"

One of several companies working together to make this project happen. Could it be suppliers for a new GF? Semi tractors will need lots of steel....

I know, I know... let it go....:(
 
The Automobile 2.0: Chevrolet Bolt EV vs Nissan Leaf vs Tesla Model 3 Long Range - Motor Trend

Taking all these factors into consideration, our finishing order in this first-ever comparison test of affordable long-range electric vehicles: Tesla Model 3 first, then the Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan Leaf. True, this is a $60,500 Model 3—but some say magic is priceless. Hey, Tesla fans, are your hands still up?

Slightly confused about the last paragraph, especially that 2 out of 3 reviewers chose the Bolt and liked the Leaf a lot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mrdoubleb
Status
Not open for further replies.