2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[EinSV]

As a follow-up on some of the recent back and forth regarding the Semi, oilprice.com published an article today echoing a point made by a few of us that the switch to electric Semis could be much faster than with passenger vehicles because it will be driven by dollars and cents rather than more complex considerations around personal vehicles.

I personally think this is one of the reasons Tesla is pushing the Semi as quickly as possible. I also believe the switch to EV Semis will happen much faster than most people are predicting because the economics will put anyone who sticks with ICE at a severe competitive disadvantage and eventually risk driving them into bankruptcy if they hold out too long:

Not long ago, the idea of 18-wheelers pulling cargo with a battery seemed somewhat ludicrous to me. But I’ve changed my mind.

In fact, I would argue that electrically-powered wheels may come to the trucking market faster than the world of passenger cars.

The reason is simple. Trucking companies—like any capitalist, profit-maximizing institution—make rational purchase decisions based on careful assessments of economic viability. Any capable Chief Financial Officer is algorithmically brain-wired to ask, “Is this thing going to make our company any more money?” If the answer is “yes,” the switch is often fast. The Electric Truck Revolution Is About To Accelerate | OilPrice.com

​

 

[Starno]

I hope it will be recorded :

 

[Reciprocity]

As a follow-up on some of the recent back and forth regarding the Semi, oilprice.com published an article today echoing a point made by a few of us that the switch to electric Semis could be much faster than with passenger vehicles because it will be driven by dollars and cents rather than more complex considerations around personal vehicles.

I personally think this is one of the reasons Tesla is pushing the Semi as quickly as possible. I also believe the switch to EV Semis will happen much faster than most people are predicting because the economics will put anyone who sticks with ICE at a severe competitive disadvantage and eventually risk driving them into bankruptcy if they hold out too long:

Not long ago, the idea of 18-wheelers pulling cargo with a battery seemed somewhat ludicrous to me. But I’ve changed my mind.

In fact, I would argue that electrically-powered wheels may come to the trucking market faster than the world of passenger cars.

The reason is simple. Trucking companies—like any capitalist, profit-maximizing institution—make rational purchase decisions based on careful assessments of economic viability. Any capable Chief Financial Officer is algorithmically brain-wired to ask, “Is this thing going to make our company any more money?” If the answer is “yes,” the switch is often fast. The Electric Truck Revolution Is About To Accelerate | OilPrice.com

​

Exactly, the semi is about the mission, the roadster is fun and the model 3 should cover the profit motivation. I feel like I have stated this 100 times but each semi is 34 model 3s in terms of consumption if fossil fuels. If they can pull it off as they have already described, it's a game changer on a whole different level then the model 3, which along with the roadster, S/X are just revolutionary. I know right, revolutionary is mundane with Tesla. The semi is other worldly. Mega chargers with solar and battery are going to provide more electricity then some small countries. Elon said that we would understand the solar City deal and I think this is what he meant. This and millions of model 3 owners installing home solar, but mostly the charging network where Tesla is it's own customer.

 

[neroden]

You have been quite vocal about the efficiencies of rail to move people, from a to b. However, I think the Boring approach might be to extend the travel beyond the a and b to z, y, and z, by having multiple entrances and exits from the tunnel(s). Likely there will be moderate sized say pods that leave when filled, so wait time would be low, but also smaller pods. The pods would not just travel to a and b, but also could deliver there passengers to their ultimate destination.
So less efficient from a to b, but likely much more efficient from a to z.

You may have missed my point. (Possibly two of my points.) If you've ever followed a tunnel being built, an exorbitant amount of the time and a disproportionate amount of the money is spent on the initial digging from the surface to get underground, not on the straight underground digging. (There's also an unusual amount of money and time spent on junctions.) You can't just drop a tunnel boring machine on a muddy field and have it start going. Even Musk's test bore suffered the same problem; a large amount of slow work setting up the "launch site". Without dealing with this problem, the tunnel cost is going to end up roughly proportional to the number of portals, and the portals are going to be blow-out expensive same as they always are.

I would feel more positive if Musk had, so far, suggested even *one* way in which he was going to cut these costs. But he hasn't. When he does, let me know.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You may have missed my point. (Possibly two of my points.) If you've ever followed a tunnel being built, an exorbitant amount of the time and a disproportionate amount of the money is spent on the initial digging from the surface to get underground, not on the straight underground digging. (There's also an unusual amount of money and time spent on junctions.) You can't just drop a tunnel boring machine on a muddy field and have it start going. Even Musk's test bore suffered the same problem; a large amount of slow work setting up the "launch site". Without dealing with this problem, the tunnel cost is going to end up roughly proportional to the number of portals, and the portals are going to be blow-out expensive same as they always are.

I would feel more positive if Musk had, so far, suggested even *one* way in which he was going to cut these costs. But he hasn't. When he does, let me know.

Subway entrances.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Was hoping it was someone else...
But..
Maybe...
It could still be...
"
New Steel International Inc. CEO John Schultes confirmed Monday that his company is one of several pursuing a project to build a multibillion-dollar manufacturing facility that it has kept under wraps for months using the code name "Project Tim."

"It's a little too early to really go public with things," Schultes said in a telephone interview with Crain's. "There are a lot of companies trying to make this happen."
"

One of several companies working together to make this project happen. Could it be suppliers for a new GF? Semi tractors will need lots of steel....

I know, I know... let it go....

Don’t let it go. Keep going.

How do you explain General Motors being mentioned in the article?

 

[TradingInvest]

As a follow-up on some of the recent back and forth regarding the Semi, oilprice.com published an article today echoing a point made by a few of us that the switch to electric Semis could be much faster than with passenger vehicles because it will be driven by dollars and cents rather than more complex considerations around personal vehicles.

I personally think this is one of the reasons Tesla is pushing the Semi as quickly as possible. I also believe the switch to EV Semis will happen much faster than most people are predicting because the economics will put anyone who sticks with ICE at a severe competitive disadvantage and eventually risk driving them into bankruptcy if they hold out too long:

Not long ago, the idea of 18-wheelers pulling cargo with a battery seemed somewhat ludicrous to me. But I’ve changed my mind.

In fact, I would argue that electrically-powered wheels may come to the trucking market faster than the world of passenger cars.

The reason is simple. Trucking companies—like any capitalist, profit-maximizing institution—make rational purchase decisions based on careful assessments of economic viability. Any capable Chief Financial Officer is algorithmically brain-wired to ask, “Is this thing going to make our company any more money?” If the answer is “yes,” the switch is often fast. The Electric Truck Revolution Is About To Accelerate | OilPrice.com

​

Totally agree with you. Think about personal cars, if someone drives 100,000 miles a year, then switching to EV is a no brainer. Because it will save a ton of fuel.

A Semi runs 100,000+ miles a year and consumes a lot of fuel. That's why switching to Tesla's Semi can save the operator $200,000 on fuel in 5 years. This is the end of diesel Semi. However they cut it, diesel is out of the picture.

Can someone offer an electric Semi that's competitive against Tesla's Semi? It will be very difficult. Tesla Semi's advantage (against other E-Semis) will be in several areas:

1. Autonomous driving (while most people don't believe it, seems to me it's coming)
2. Brand
3. Low cost, no dealer and advertisement cost
4. Design: low air drag, looks beautiful
5. Design under the skin: drive train, energy efficency, battery and battery management, no Jackknifing
6. MegaCharger @$0.07, Tesla can produce their own low-cost solar panels to achieve this.
7. One million mile no breakdown guarentee
8. Lower insurance cost down the road
9. Platooning

It seems to me Tesla is in a position to replace a whole industry.
It used to be Oil field + refinery + Semi + maintenance + labor + pollution
Now: Tesla Solar + Megacharger + Tesla Semi

Down the road, as Semi becomes more competitive against trains, the required total number of Semis will go up. In the long run, the demand for Tesla Semi could reach 300k per year. The Tesla Network will play a central role in this trucking business.

 

[mongo]

Don’t let it go. Keep going.

How do you explain General Motors being mentioned in the article?

Don't know... Sounds like someone said GM was interested, but not confirmed.

A coal fired plant doesn't sound very Tesla. Electric/ solar would be interesting especially if using counter flow heat recovery. Induction heating of the pellets would be a possibility...

 

[EinSV]

Exactly, the semi is about the mission, the roadster is fun and the model 3 should cover the profit motivation. I feel like I have stated this 100 times but each semi is 34 model 3s in terms of consumption if fossil fuels. If they can pull it off as they have already described, it's a game changer on a whole different level then the model 3, which along with the roadster, S/X are just revolutionary. I know right, revolutionary is mundane with Tesla. The semi is other worldly. Mega chargers with solar and battery are going to provide more electricity then some small countries. Elon said that we would understand the solar City deal and I think this is what he meant. This and millions of model 3 owners installing home solar, but mostly the charging network where Tesla is it's own customer.

I completely agree re serving the mission but also believe the Semi will generate cash by the truck load (pardon the pun ).

 

[Buddyroe]

Damn, when will this nightmare called production hell end? Musk said 6 months of production hell, and I guess he wasn't lying. It seems we'll just have to keep watching cars trickle out til end of January.

Regardless, it sucks. I'm ready to throw some *sugar* in a few naysayers' faces!

GM Beating Tesla at their Own Game

 

[Bet TSLA]

You may have missed my point.

Your points are always the same -- tunneling is a big, hard, expensive problem and Elon hasn't said how he's going to do way better than everybody else. The problem with your position is that Elon has now disrupted multiple industries. So being knowledgeable about the industry and saying you don't think Elon can disrupt it comes across as pretty meaningless, merely confirming that you'll be one of those embarrassed when he does.

Now, I'm not saying Elon has a better solution for everything, but he does seem to have a pretty decent sense of which projects are worth pursuing. Maybe this time it's different. Maybe The Boring Co. will go nowhere. But I wouldn't bet against him. Certainly not on the word of "some guy on the internet" (that's you) who says the problem is hard. Elon eats hard problems for breakfast.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Damn, when will this nightmare called production hell end? Musk said 6 months of production hell, and I guess he wasn't lying. It seems we'll just have to keep watching cars trickle out til end of January.

Regardless, it sucks. I'm ready to throw some *sugar* in a few naysayers' faces!

GM Beating Tesla at their Own Game

View attachment 264663

If throwing facts in naysayers face works, it would have worked when Tesla produced >20K MS, or ramped MX. Don't waste your time. Spend more time on M3 picture thread instead, there are many beautiful cars there.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It seems that employee deliveries are happening out towards the east coast at higher volume now. We just saw multiple M3 sightings in Chicago. In the reddit thread below a user mentioned that a Cincinnati store manager recently said that they delivered 3 M3s in one day.

Model 3 Spotted Being Prepped For Delivery in Northeast Ohio • r/teslamotors

 

[adiggs]

Totally agree with you. Think about personal cars, if someone drives 100,000 miles a year, then switching to EV is a no brainer. Because it will save a ton of fuel.

A Semi runs 100,000+ miles a year and consumes a lot of fuel. That's why switching to Tesla's Semi can save the operator $200,000 on fuel in 5 years. This is the end of diesel Semi. However they cut it, diesel is out of the picture.

Can someone offer an electric Semi that's competitive against Tesla's Semi? It will be very difficult. Tesla Semi's advantage (against other E-Semis) will be in several areas:

1. Autonomous driving (while most people don't believe it, seems to me it's coming)
2. Brand
3. Low cost, no dealer and advertisement cost
4. Design: low air drag, looks beautiful
5. Design under the skin: drive train, energy efficency, battery and battery management, no Jackknifing
6. MegaCharger @$0.07, Tesla can produce their own low-cost solar panels to achieve this.
7. One million mile no breakdown guarentee
8. Lower insurance cost down the road
9. Platooning

It seems to me Tesla is in a position to replace a whole industry.
It used to be Oil field + refinery + Semi + maintenance + labor + pollution
Now: Tesla Solar + Megacharger + Tesla Semi

Down the road, as Semi becomes more competitive against trains, the required total number of Semis will go up. In the long run, the demand for Tesla Semi could reach 300k per year. The Tesla Network will play a central role in this trucking business.

There's one particular bit in the math about electric semis being competitive with freight rail that is important and not somethign I've seen addressed. The trucking industry is the recipient of a huge subsidy from society in the form of road building and maintenance - something the rail industry isn't a beneficiary of. If the two industries were subsidy neutral, would it still be financially sensible to shift bulk heavy freight to trucks? My guess is no.

Depending on a subsidy to continue for the economics ... that isn't a business model I'm putting into my own investment equation. I big increase in road wear and tear, and thus maintenance, is also going to translate into a bigger subsidy or it's going to translate into bigger road use fees more in line with the damage trucks are doing. And that'll take some of the economic benefit away.

For my part, the beginning of your point is plenty for my own ongoing investment. I don't need Tesla Semis to start taking business from freight rail (though I wouldn't mind seeing a battery electric train in 10 years - wouldn't that be a kick).

 

[Waiting4M3]

You You said he got the VIN on the website, not via email.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Totally agree with you. Think about personal cars, if someone drives 100,000 miles a year, then switching to EV is a no brainer. Because it will save a ton of fuel.

A Semi runs 100,000+ miles a year and consumes a lot of fuel. That's why switching to Tesla's Semi can save the operator $200,000 on fuel in 5 years. This is the end of diesel Semi. However they cut it, diesel is out of the picture.

Can someone offer an electric Semi that's competitive against Tesla's Semi? It will be very difficult. Tesla Semi's advantage (against other E-Semis) will be in several areas:

1. Autonomous driving (while most people don't believe it, seems to me it's coming)
2. Brand
3. Low cost, no dealer and advertisement cost
4. Design: low air drag, looks beautiful
5. Design under the skin: drive train, energy efficency, battery and battery management, no Jackknifing
6. MegaCharger @$0.07, Tesla can produce their own low-cost solar panels to achieve this.
7. One million mile no breakdown guarentee
8. Lower insurance cost down the road
9. Platooning

It seems to me Tesla is in a position to replace a whole industry.
It used to be Oil field + refinery + Semi + maintenance + labor + pollution
Now: Tesla Solar + Megacharger + Tesla Semi

Down the road, as Semi becomes more competitive against trains, the required total number of Semis will go up. In the long run, the demand for Tesla Semi could reach 300k per year. The Tesla Network will play a central role in this trucking business.

Thanks for this. What are your 2019 & 2020 unit projection, and what’s your definition of long run to get to 300,000 units per year?

 

[bambam4171]

Damn, when will this nightmare called production hell end? Musk said 6 months of production hell, and I guess he wasn't lying. It seems we'll just have to keep watching cars trickle out til end of January.

Regardless, it sucks. I'm ready to throw some *sugar* in a few naysayers' faces!

GM Beating Tesla at their Own Game

View attachment 264663

Well, GM may be able to produce, but there are not many takers. With Tesla its currently just the other way round

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Project Tim revealed: Steelmaker planning sprawling plant in rural Durand

• Plant would focus on new steel technology
• New Steel International seeks $7 billion federal loan
• Massive project has been subject of wide speculation

Rest of content deleted by moderator. It is against the rules (and copyright law) to post the entire content of an article from another site. -- ggr.

The key part of this article tied both Tesla and General Motors to the project.

 

[avoigt]

November sales in Germany up 98,5% versus November 2016 and 85,8% YoY Jan-Nov.

Total Vehicles sold: 3042.

Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 29/2017 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2017

Thats a great development!

And this is just MS and MX of course...... a market that is still growing ....

 

[RationalOptimist]

November sales in Germany up 98,5% versus November 2016 and 85,8% YoY Jan-Nov.

Total Vehicles sold: 3042.

Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 29/2017 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2017

Thats a great development!

I agree this is hugely significant. There's growing recognition among all the German auto makers that electric is the future. It's shifting attitudes in the country. Tesla offers the future today.