2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[myusername]

Hey myusername. Just wanted to acknowledge that you made very accurate calls on the rise to 280 and this recent drop. Nice job. Where next?

I plan to hold on to my shares through any drop but have no problem swallowing my pride and soliciting advise when someone's been right.

I also greatly value jesselivenomore, Trendtrader 007, DaveT, and a bunch of others.

Keep it coming. Thx.

thanks... hard to say right now. I think we've officially broken the 2.5 mo uptrend... we could see a complete recovery all the way back to $278 tomorrow and that may be a sign of continuation... but I doubt that will happen... there's some general negativity from the big T's madness... I really don't expect markets to open green tomorrow... and also... $266 is the magic number... one scenario tomorrow is a quick drop sub $265 maybe to $262.50 and a recovery and pin at $266... or... another scenario... markets might freak out tomorrow and it gaps down... if so... look out below.

regarding medium term... if the mega up move is over... then we're just going to have to wait until after the ER to try to find the next pattern.

regarding ER... i hate earnings weeks... options so inflated... and it could drop significantly on good news... RSI did drop under oversold... another pull back might setup for a rise after earnings... Elon always has really good things to say... and we already know they missed on deliveries... but ER's are random as far as I'm concerned.

 

[jhm]

there's the other gap at $240 from Jan 19... might as well go and pick that one up too.

Nah, we need to hit $320 before falling back to $240.

 

[myusername]

here's something that's interesting... the left is the top of the equivalent run last Feb/Mar... they even consolidate briefly around the same place in the run... the first topping reversal on the left was on a Thursday... then the next day's drop was (of course) a Friday... just like right now... maybe we see an equivalent drop tomorrow to todays?

 

[Russianserg]

Hey guys. just joined. Do you think that the ER will actually bring the stock price down? It seemed to be the pattern for the past 2 years and this year ( financially) seems to be a repeat. Please correct me if I' am wrong.

The company has an extremely bright future especially with the M3, but that wont reflect until we see sales and delivery, right?

 

[Turing]

Hey myusername. Just wanted to acknowledge that you made very accurate calls on the rise to 280 and this recent drop. Nice job. Where next?

I plan to hold on to my shares through any drop but have no problem swallowing my pride and soliciting advise when someone's been right.

I also greatly value jesselivenomore, Trendtrader 007, DaveT, and a bunch of others.

Keep it coming. Thx.

Just for some balance, he also proclaimed the trend dead on 1/12 at $229 if memory is correct.

 

[vgrinshpun]

View attachment 215134

Currently showing max-pain at 272.50, up from 270 yesterday.... although that web site runs quirky enough I take that with a grain of salt.

What is interesting is that the open interest walls are skewed to the uppaer part of the range: $270 - $290:

 

[myusername]

Just for some balance, he also proclaimed the trend dead on 1/12 at $229 if memory is correct.

i was actually out of the country that day and very much not paying attention... I also don't care if i'm right or not, but just don't want to contradict myself. i took a look at my posts and had a gap between 1/5 and 1/13... and a cocky one on 1/13 no doubt... but i probably did at some points within the last 2 months have a negative sentiment... maybe during the consolidation at 250 was what you were thinking of... i mean... a 60% move even when you see it in the charts in 2 months is kind of hard to believe.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Today's Fidelity update:

 

[Turing]

i was actually out of the country that day and very much not paying attention... I also don't care if i'm right or not, but just don't want to contradict myself. i took a look at my posts and had a gap between 1/5 and 1/13... and a cocky one on 1/13 no doubt... but i probably did at some points within the last 2 months have a negative sentiment... maybe during the consolidation at 250 was what you were thinking of... i mean... a 60% move even when you see it in the charts in 2 months is kind of hard to believe.

Maybe it was another poster, but i thought you called the trendline broken on one of the pullbacks then admitted it jumped back into the trend. Anyway, you have made a number of good calls either way, well done.

 

[GoTslaGo]

FYI:

Econoday Economic Report: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey February 16, 2017

Quote:

Released On 2/16/2017 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2017
........................................................................Prior......Consensus...Consensus Range......Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level.....23.6.......19.3...............15.0 to 24.0..............43.3

The strength of the Philadelphia Fed's general business conditions index is impossible to exaggerate. February's 43.3 is not a misprint. It's the strongest since very far back, since January 1984. Yes, this index is a response to a single question on monthly sentiment but its enormous strength is confirmed by a very tangible reading, and that is the new orders index which jumped 12 points in the month to 38 which itself is a record or should be one if it is not.

Other readings in this report are less spectacular but very strong including a big build for backlogs, a healthy draw for inventories, understandable slowing in delivery times, and noticeable pressures in costs and positive traction for selling prices.

As an advance indicator, this report rivals the ISM manufacturing survey in importance. These readings point squarely at 2017 acceleration for a factory sector that limped through 2016.

End Quote

 

[neroden]

TSLA down in pre-market and in Frankfurt. I see no news, so this is either technical algobots, or "getting out before earnings".

Maximum-pain.com is showing very quirky results this morning implying that most options positions were closed on Thursday, leaving only hopeless positions -- puts at $200 or below, calls at $320 or above. So if they're correct we won't see any max pain effect on Friday.

Actually if they're correct (and they don't just have defective data) we may have just been watching a lot of options positions getting unwound. I don't quite understand what effect that would have on the stock price (theoretically it could have no effect, but given hedging, it probably does have some effect.)

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Actually if they're correct (and they don't just have defective data) we may have just been watching a lot of options positions getting unwound. I don't quite understand what effect that would have on the stock price (theoretically it could have no effect, but given hedging, it probably does have some effect.)

No, this is the standard result on that site if they somehow don't get market data. It seems that during the night their data fetch fails at some point and then you get these weird results. Check again after open. I'd guess the MP is around 270-275 still.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I smell something fishy. Pre-market volume is elevated, but for a drop of up to $6+ I expect to see many 10th of thousand shares if not 100k+ shares traded, yet the volume so far only 10,312 shares. I am wondering if this sudden move has something to do with yesterday's disappearance of 678k shares available for shorting in one shot. May be these were borrowed, but not sold yesterday, and all are primed up for the manipulative selling today...

Obviously, I am guessing and grappling for answers as anybody else, but this thing looks suspicious - seems as something being manufactured...

 

[vgrinshpun]

No, this is the standard result on that site if they somehow don't get market data. It seems that during the night their data fetch fails at some point and then you get these weird results. Check again after open. I'd guess the MP is around 270-275 still.

Yep, options are not gone . Here is snapshot from Fidelity as of couple of minutes ago:

 

[myusername]

I smell something fishy. Pre-market volume is elevated, but for a drop of up to $6+ I expect to see many 10th of thousand shares if not 100k+ shares traded, yet the volume so far only 10,312 shares. I am wondering if this sudden move has something to do with yesterday's disappearance of 678k shares available for shorting in one shot. May be these were borrowed, but not sold yesterday, and all are primed up for the manipulative selling today...

Obviously, I am guessing and grappling for answers as anybody else, but this thing looks suspicious - seems as something being manufactured...

then you weren't watching pre-markets on the run up... just last week there was a $7 jump on 10k shares that resulted in that gap you're currently looking at.

but my opinion is --- there's been something fishy going on since Dec 5.

 

[MartinAustin]

I've been considering selling some, just to re-buy lower. There's no point trying to stop a train. But as I look at the pre-market it looks like the price is nibbling upwards. Decisions...

 

[vgrinshpun]

then you weren't watching pre-markets on the run up... just last week there was a $7 jump on 10k shares that resulted in that gap you're currently looking at.

but my opinion is --- there's been something fishy going on since Dec 5.

If you are talking about last Friday morning, you are making my point.

There was a run-up that you are mentioning in pre-market before 6:30am, from ~$264 to ~$272 but then it reversed to $266.30 at the open, precisely because of what I was saying. If it would be a real move caused by news, volume would be much higher. Since volume was low as you noted, the move up was not sustained.

 

[Todd Burch]

I was thinking the UAW actions recently probably put a little bit of downward pressure on the stock. I sold everything I've got at $270 and am waiting to put everything back in as soon as things appear to level out. Would like to do that before the earnings call, because if there's really good news, I'd hate to miss the rise, and if there's less-than-stellar news, I can ride that out.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm riding out the storm. I'll handle my margin calls as they come but the major risk for me is not the losses but inability to hold onto the stock long enough
Bottom line: I'm not selling a single share more than I have to and my first margin call is not due until next Friday
So I'm good

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm planning to hold them until early to mid 2918, except I'm concerned about a possible market crash in 2018 and a possible pullback from a squeeze, so I might pull them out for one of those reasons

2918 huh? Your time horizon is just a tad bit longer than mine

I sold 20% of my remaining trading shares at 274.50. Due to work restrictions I want able to the previous day's so I missed out on selling at 285. Annoying but oh well.

The bet here is on being able to buy sub 250 after earnings though I will do my best to have the patience to wait until things seem to have reversed to the upside of the slide I'm gambling on occurs.

Either way I think I get 220 I least once more before full model 3 production volume and plan to take full advantage of it. Maybe I'll be lucky enough to be unemployed and be able to buy calls by then, you never know