2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[supratachophobia]

No

Who's you guys, Tonto?

No way this is my fault....

 

[GoTslaGo]

I observe, but don't post here often. Needless to say, the overall sentiment is pretty negative currently with
some reasonable basis, namely, the apparent slow progress of the Model 3 ramp up. Nevertheless, did anyone
care to notice that the market as a whole and the Nasdaq specifically was down pretty hard today? Nasdaq darlings
like NVDA down 2.53%, for example. I think what also may be in play is AMDs poor showing today, down 13.47%! Perhaps
people are associating their downturn with TSLA. Finally, people generally get jittery
around earnings and are sometimes nervous to hold through the earnings date.

I have been long since 2013 and intend to stay long for at least 5-10 years (probably longer). I think this is a buying opportunity now along the thinking of Ben Kallo's advice to buy on any weakness. Best of luck to longs!

Yep, been buying, and planning to buy more.

I think there had been a lot of optimism going into earnings. Earnings and guidance from some companies are showing some weakness, spooking the market. Add in uncertainty over Tax overhaul and now the Fed Chief, I believe macros are going to bring things down for a bit.

Interesting how this seems to perfectly coincide with @MitchJi ’s wife’s premonition....

 

[myusername]

I'm stunned by the flat volume today... pretty much steady high volume trading, instead of the normal slowing down after the first hour, maybe picking up a little toward the end. That, with the relatively flat price, makes me highly suspicious. Of something. I just wish I knew what.

that 1.5m block trade in premarket was probably part of a large investor trimming or closing... and they followed through the rest of the day.

 

[zdriver]

so this is ~3 month lows. heavy shorting such as i highlighted yesterday almost always follows with a further 10-15 pt drop. we might still get into the low 320s yet today or tomorrow. another concerning point is that the head and shoulders formation on the daily will complete as we break the 330 neck line.

sometimes high shorting is a sign of a larger coming drop as it was in mid june. and sometimes after another 10-15 points the stock can gradually turn. i think the next earnings will look quite bad from an eps/cash flow perspective, so am wondering now when the turn could come.

technicals aside i think it will take vin's and deliveries to put a real turn.

Just want to quote this, since it turned out to be so spot on...

 

[TMSE]

Yep, been buying, and planning to buy more.

I think there had been a lot of optimism going into earnings. Earnings and guidance from some companies are showing some weakness, spooking the market. Add in uncertainty over Tax overhaul and now the Fed Chief, I believe macros are going to bring things down for a bit.

Interesting how this seems to perfectly coincide with @MitchJi ’s wife’s premonition....

@MitchJi ‘s wife has been very prescient so far. Hope to have her comment here in future.

 

[elasalle]

13 (and counting) disagrees --- this is a new record. Thanks!

Only game in town today is "wack a FUDster" .. so ain't surprised

 

[TMSE]

so this is ~3 month lows. heavy shorting such as i highlighted yesterday almost always follows with a further 10-15 pt drop. we might still get into the low 320s yet today or tomorrow. another concerning point is that the head and shoulders formation on the daily will complete as we break the 330 neck line.

sometimes high shorting is a sign of a larger coming drop as it was in mid june. and sometimes after another 10-15 points the stock can gradually turn. i think the next earnings will look quite bad from an eps/cash flow perspective, so am wondering now when the turn could come.

technicals aside i think it will take vin's and deliveries to put a real turn.

Yes, any confirmation of good deliveries should help this turn. But, how do we know about deliveries if we can’t even get the VIN of newly delivered M3’s out in the wild?
I don’t think we will hear any numbers on M3 production or deliveries for October in the ER. But we will definitely hear some qualitative assessment of M3 ramp, which is very much open to interpretation.

 

[myusername]

you guys want to talk about the **6's again? $356, $346, $336, $326.

(i'm aware I'm replying to my own thread)

$316 is conveniently the 200 MA tomorrow... that looks like a good pre-ER target to me... RSI will be technically oversold at that point.

 

[D-egg-O]

precisely

in fact, for those of us thinking of the stock price as $350 +/-$50, it's the stock price "as usual" for months now

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

Finally, people generally get jittery around earnings and are sometimes nervous to hold through the earnings date.

Happened prior to Q2 ER. Happened prior to Q3 deliveries.

 

[BornToFly]

I think big institutions buy and sell forcing SP swings and they make money every time. Us little guys can just buy more everytime there is a big dip like this, and we can also get rich in the end by doing so. Put money in a pot, and then dollar cost average on the dip. Maybe 50% now, and save 50% for if it goes below 310.

 

[myusername]

I think big institutions buy and sell forcing SP swings and they make money every time. Us little guys can just buy more everytime there is a big dip like this, and we can also get rich in the end by doing so. Put money in a pot, and then dollar cost average on the dip. Maybe 50% now, and save 50% for if it goes below 310.

and you should be able to do this forever because stocks never drop below what you're willing to lose... especially high risk growth stocks... ever.

 

[D-egg-O]

and you should be able to do this forever because stocks never drop below what you're willing to lose... especially high risk growth stocks... ever.

^^^

 

[myusername]

(i'm aware I'm replying to my own thread)

$316 is conveniently the 200 MA tomorrow... that looks like a good pre-ER target to me... RSI will be technically oversold at that point.

Just sayin':

Ext Hrs 326.0 0.16 (0.05%) @ 19:28:58

 

[bdy0627]

It's definitely time to buy when "ignored member" shows up as the latest post in multiple threads again. They're back!

 

[MitchJi]

Really my only worry for Tesla, a huge battery breakthrough that we miss. I know that these things still take time to reach production and prove themselves over time, but still a worry. All good for the planet.

Toshiba claims EV battery breakthrough: 200-mile charge in 6 minutes

I'm not worried about the toshiba battery, nothing to worry about there.

I believe that Tesla is working on the goodenough battery. The only risk (short term) is that word gets out that before it's ready for production which would canabalize current sales.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

(i'm aware I'm replying to my own thread)

$316 is conveniently the 200 MA tomorrow... that looks like a good pre-ER target to me... RSI will be technically oversold at that point.

Thanks, I'll look to start buying at that point then for some light leverage.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Remember this?

Twitter

April 3. $300 per share.

Since then:

1. Model 3 deliveries started early
2. Advanced talks for Gigafactory in China
3. Project Tesla In Michigan
4. Largest battery in Australia
5. No Model S/X Osborne
6. SCTY integration and related SG&A cuts
7. EAP improving slowly but surely
8. Semi reveal in three weeks
9. Puerto Rico potential in the billions
10. Non-dilutive debt at reasonable rate
11. Equity dilution lower than feared
12. Model X orders now rivaling Model S
13. Powerwall deliveries ramp
14. Solar Roof installations started
15. Incumbents still at bay

 

[adiggs]

It's definitely time to buy when "ignored member" shows up as the latest post in multiple threads again. They're back!

Do we have a test of this buy signal anywhere we can refer back to?

For different reasons, I've just today started thinking it was getting to be time to buy more (where buy more shows up as "sell some shares and buy some DITM calls", for a net gain in share exposure to the long side).

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It's definitely time to buy when "ignored member" shows up as the latest post in multiple threads again. They're back!

myusername is a bear, a bit stubborn and set in his own way, but I've found bits of interesting technical insights, more than most. Whenever he's not rallying with conspiracy theories about manipulation, or even when he is.
My point is, for you who pay attention to technicals, I think there is value in checking his posts.

 

[viKtor slamet]

- 200MA would be a good spot to load the truck
- $290 would be great to bet the farm
- $270 would be great to sell all the animals and buy more
- TSLA penny stock (which should happen by xmas) would be a great time to sell ur kidney, one of ur testicles, and go all in.