Bulls have bought the dip by showing up between 2 and 3pm on each of the last 4 trading days. I might try some weekly calls tmrw for fun if there is a similar pattern.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Next max pain on jan 20th is much more meaningful (yearly option). Min payout for jan 13 is $10M, for jan 20 it's around $200M. This shows how much more money is at stake.
Having said that, it's about delta between max pain and other strikes, so shallowness of the curve is very important.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I've been wondering if it could be used to help determine inside information?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I’ve posted a chart with suggested Elliott waves in the TSLA Technical Analysis thread.
Link: TSLA Technical Analysis
Link: TSLA Technical Analysis
racer26
Active Member
and as you can see from that graph, the Jan20 strike is pretty flat, all the way from 200 up to 235ish, the option houses will be paying out about the same amount.
That's an interesting observation Geneclean55. One possible motive is that a big institutional buyer is picking up shares over a long time-frame and is giving a rest in the mid-afternoon to allow the price to settle a bit before resuming the buying.
Could be! It strikes me that the buying is being carried out by a party familiar with how TSLA tends to trade during the day.
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Pretty subdued borrowing activity at fidelity pre-market today:
At least 168k shares were borrowed at Fidelity in about 1 hour of trading (on top of 51k in pre-market):
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That makes me feel a little better. If we were down without low shorting activity that would make me very nervous. Short attacks on the other hand are quite mundane at this point. Regardless, it's should be clear to everyone by now not to trade on my predictions...
If the institutional buyer is also a heavy margin user or persistent share-lender, this would explain the low interest rates.
If our theory is correct there is a large institutional buyer looking to buy a very large number of shares. We're not sure at what price this buyer will step in...
I got tempted to play that game on this dip.... let's see how it pans out.
Edit: it is a bit unnerving to do this kind of a thing, but fun as well.
My feeling is we've had such a smooth up-trend, a bit of choppiness like this is to be expected. I'm thinking the uptrend continues, but the bumps down get bigger and the overall rate is less steep.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm hoping for $200-$222 so I can get a nice price on some J19' $250's and $260's.
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