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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
Marin County, CA

I have a question:

You have made quite a few posts about the reductions in battery pack weight being an important factor for the M3. I don’t necessarily agree with that assessment. It’s even possible that most of the improvement is due to increased cell energy density. But I think that could be crucial for the Roadster and the semi. Particularly the semi.

Fred said on electrek’s second podcast that the M3 with the 75 kWh pack weighs 300 pounds more than the version with the 50 kWh pack. He said that only includes the cells, not the pack related stuff. I believe that includes (obviously) everything except the pack enclosure, which I believe is a pretty small percentage of the total.

Assuming a 100 kWh pack we have 300 pounds x 4 x 10 equals 12k pounds plus 5-10 percent for the enclosure means a total of 13,200 pounds. A semi tractor carries 200 gallons of diesel which weighs about 1,400 pounds. A typical class 8 semi tractor weighs about 20k pounds plus diesel.

Can you or anyone else determine about how much the Tesla Semi would weigh based on those figures . It seems feasible to me that either with current batteries or current batteries plus a small 5-10% increase in energy density that Tesla has this in the bag. in other words I don’t believe that they need a major advance in battery technology to hit their weight targets.

What do you think? Anyone else who is knowledgeable is welcome to contribute.
In this podcast Rob interviews someone who works in the semi diesel industry. He does a detailed breakdown of the weight of all of the drive components. He figures that the motor, drive shafts, coollant etc. totals 7,050 pounds. He mentions that s diesel semi need structural strength due to twisting but he doesn’t have a very good idea of the potential weight savings. He and Rob forgot that in his talk in the Netherlands the designer said that their goal is to not have a reduction in payload,, but he did say that if they miss that by a thousand ponds it doesn’t matter and he mentions that the substantial impact of that on the required gravimetric energy density. I believe that it’s clear that Tesla can meet their goal of being close enough without any further major advances in their technology.
12.06.17 – Interview with Trucking Industry TSLA Investor – TechCast Daily
You can play it directly using this link:
Blubrry PowerPress Player
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Dec 20, 2016
did somebody leak that production hell is over at around 11:15 EST ?

ps: then it turned out to be fake news at 11:50, lol....
I personally think that whenever you see a large rash of FUD towards Tesla, you can expect good news or positive impact on share price shortly after. Those in the know might whisper things in an attempt to depress share price to acquire some more. Just a theory, a crazy one at that.
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Supporting Member
Sep 16, 2016
No demand problem there!

At the moment (but we should see how next week goes), this is the picture of the last 8 Qs:

Best thing so far is that 2017 is already doubling 2016:

And it's just December 6... Of course, December is always in a hurry for the holidays, but I expect at least 800 sales (quite conservative, looking at the numbers).


Mar 12, 2016
San Francisco,CA
I personally think that whenever you see a large rash of FUD towards Tesla, you can expect good news or positive impact on share price shortly after. Those in the know might whisper things in an attempt to depress share price to acquire some more. Just a theory, a crazy one at that.

Usually around that time MU speaks up, but seems to be silent, so the big one may still be pending.


driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
Past few days .. talk was of Sector rotation out of Tech ..
Is the Santa Rally back now ...


Supporting Member
Sep 21, 2012
A lot of their analyst are mainly people that write a story to get clicks. Positive stories never get clicks. If they want to retain subscribers or want to get new subscribers, the best way is to write controversial stories. Also note that a few of the analyst that write negative stories are shorters themselves so it is in their best interest to write horse crap about Tesla even though the company is doing a lot.

Seeking Alpha is a blog site.

Anyone who wants to blog on their site sets up an account and then asks to be a "published" blogger. When I went through this process, roughly 50% of people were accepted to submit blogs for "publishing". That's not 50% of a pool of analysts or journalists... but 50% of whoever showed up and asked (fwiw, they gave me the thumbs up when I asked about 4-5 years ago).

Seeking Alpha has an explicit policy of not doing any fact checking of the blogs they "publish."

A few years ago, the Yahoo Finance news feed for TSLA was filled daily with loud and false narrative fiction about Tesla in the form of Seeking Alpha blogs. I discussed this with Tesla's VP of HR. He indicated Tesla had looked at the Seeking Alpha phenomena, and his comments suggested that they found the no fact checking policy to be a conscious strategy to avoid legal responsibility.

Yahoo Finance has not included SA in their news feed for a few years now. These blogs still show up prominently on Google searches for TSLA at the very top of the results (just under a graphic with the stock price and daily chart) under "Top Stories." To my view this gives the false impression that these blogs are news stories which I consider a current error/limitation of Google. Perhaps we could try to see this addressed by reaching out to Tesla and expressing our concern about this error (as you may well know, Elon has known Larry and Sergey for a very long time, and is quite a close friend of Larry's).

Of course, so much of what used to be considered financial journalism from reputable sources (The Wall Street Journal, NY Times, Forbes, and many others), is often as misleading as the blogs on Tesla one finds at Seeking Alpha. I suppose if you are a Seeking Alpha supporter, you could say, the gap between SA and the top historical names of financial journalism is swiftly closing, lols.
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Active Member
Sep 4, 2016
look at the positive monthly chart
just turned positive today
at this rate we will end the year very well
I thought my Jan 2018 calls were going down the tube
clearly not!
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Active Member
Mar 8, 2017
TSLA has been pushing upward today in extended spurts accompanied by significant trading volume. That's usually a sign of institutional accumulation. Someone must know something. Eventually we'll learn what it is.

Gigafactory 2 is ready for production, for most of us this is known news. Not sure if this is a surprise for the market. I bought some today at the open. Still have unfilled orders.

The recent set up has been bullish. Today going above 303.7 was a confirmed buy. Then breaking 305 was a intraday cup and handle breakout.

There is a decent chance the next high will be around March.
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