my take on Chanos, and the broader nexus of shorts, Tesla "news" coverage, and potentially the involvement of the massive concentrated wealth that 1/10 of the world's economy tied up in fossil fuels and incumbent transport represents. we've seen nonsense for years, we are likely to continue to see it for years, our investing will go better if we recognize and understand these things better.
I do think we can assess the games that happen with some large pocketed market players and the media. For example, that video often posted here from around 2007 of Jim Cramer outlining some of those games is quite eye opening.
I think it is in our interest to assess these activities and note when they are happening. That said, I have no interest in judging anyone. So, to be clear, In this post, I'm not asserting Chanos is "nefarious." In fact, I think it's fair to say Chanos is being emotionally honest. He probably very much feels as if he'd like to see the entire investment community believe his claims about Tesla and see the resulting impact on TSLA that would have.
So, while I think we can say he's being emotionally honest and not "nefarious," I think we can make the assessment that he is stating falsehoods it is very very probable that intellectually he knows are false without judging him.
In this short 3.5 minute segment from Chanos, we continual intellectual falsehoods as follows,
1) claims production line can't be made for semi or Roadster by '19 & '20: false, he doesn't know where Tesla is on preparing for production, what's more production volumes on both vehicles will be smaller than previous Tesla vehicles, far smaller the first year or two
2) claims Daimler is testing an EV semi: false or grossly misleading, no public claim of a class 8 truck from Daimler (not sure if "semi" is used for class 8 only, so not sure if outright false, or just grossly misleading to imply they have a truck in the same category as Tesla
3) claims Tesla has been leapfrogged in autonomy: grossly misleading, cites Waymo but leaves out their hardware costs 100X Tesla's, cites Audi level 3 claim, but leaves out Tesla's test fleet is roughly 1000X as large
4) tries to paint Tesla as mass exodus of executives: false, top execs are the same as 5+ years ago (CFO did leave for 1.5 years, but is back), turnover in line with tech
Xfactor)
Chanos says he was in Detroit all day yesterday meeting with auto execs- you don't say, lols hmm would be consistent with the theory that the market largest short position, a massive position for 5+ staying outsized even when the stock exploded, is more comprised of massive concentrated wealth trying to slow down the disruption of fossil fuel/incumbent transport industry than traders deciding TSLA is overvalued.
As I stated yesterday, having watched Chanos talk many times now, I find it highly improbable someone with the mental abilities, knowledge of Tesla, and indications of independent thinking he displays believes the extremely off the mark statements he is saying.
Chamath Palihapitiyaexpressed similar incredulity yesterday re how it could be that Chanos would actually think these things. He may or may not be working with fossil fuel/incumbent transport enormously deep pockets, or not (and those deep pockets may or may not have a huge TSLA short position), but, it's just a very large stretch to think Chanos believes what he says in my view... that's my assessment of his statements, as to Chanos the person, I don't see myself as if I am a judge of him.
link to video for convenience,
Kynikos' Jim Chanos: Tesla's Elon Musk has a broad interpretation of the truth
