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The uptrend is in question because the shorts have been throwing hundreds of thousands of short positions towards pulling the price down within the past two days. They are very aware of the technicals and are mounting this attack specifically to threaten the technicals. If this attack is defeated as it was yesterday, it will be a huge blow to the shorts. If the shorts succeed in lowering the price a fair amount today, it may threaten the uptrend until further positive news becomes available. Ultimately, the uptrend will resume when further positive news comes forward, whether that be guidance during the 4Q ER (if it outweighs concern for the numbers) or if it comes later when Q1 delivery numbers are released. In the meantime, this is quite a battle to watch.
racer26
Active Member
I dunno. I kinda feel like inauguration shouldn't have too much impact. The markets already priced in the impact of a Trump economy through the end of November and December. Its not like his inauguration is a surprise.
Not the inauguration but the executive orders and bills coming from congress in the few weeks after inauguration that may jolt the markets. May take a while for everyone to get comfortable with where the Country is heading. We should have greater clarity about the time Tesla reports Q4 earnings. In addition to macro uncertainty impacts, I expect TSLA to move down prior to earnings due to uncertainty in guidance and in Solar City impact on earnings. After the earnings report, I expect TSLA to move up on earnings and guidance.
racer26
Active Member
Hows that short availability going @vgrinshpun? Does there seem to be correlation between this run and them running out of ammo?
racer26
Active Member
So... no. Not correlated.
Wonder if this run is related to whatever force has been pushing us up at ~$10/wk since early December
I have exited all options. I think no short term catalyst coming up and SP maybe pressured due to delivery miss until earning. Plus trump's rally has gone too far too quickly.
Will jump back in before earning if SP hasnt gone up.
Will jump back in before earning if SP hasnt gone up.
IMO today price action is not significantly affected by the shorting as it is benign (see snap shot below). I think that we've seen some consolidation and risk-off in conjunction with Trump press conference and the Russian connection. We seem to be having a relief rally towards the close, which could bode well for tomorrow. Just to make it clear, It seems that potential for (Trump related) troubles are there, but Mr. Market decided not to freak out about it, just yet.
This. It is true that Trump should be "priced in" but his actual actions will sink in. So far it's been a ridiculous show. Things are about to get real, and there could be some adjustments.
I still have my J'18 ITM calls. But this is my thinking as well.
racer26
Active Member
I've moved all of mine (a lot of which was Jan20'17) to mostly March ITM calls. I'm expecting that the $10/wk trend continues, at least for another week, and I'll be able to roll the original investment back out of these out to J18/J19's soon, leaving only the profits for short term riskier plays.
Wow, we closed basically flat for the day, however the lack of volume was discomforting. The fact we closed flat despite the low volume is huge.
I did play "buy the morning dip, sell in the afternoon" with weeklies, however it's loosing its "fun" factor and was stressful hahah.
Tomorrow will be interesting to watch!
I did play "buy the morning dip, sell in the afternoon" with weeklies, however it's loosing its "fun" factor and was stressful hahah.
Tomorrow will be interesting to watch!
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