-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
"Buy between 1-2pm tomorrow...bu...dum...dum." Couldn't resist.
dc_h
Active Member
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Short interest dropped some
12/30/2016 34,157,512
12/15/2016 35,389,874
12/30/2016 34,157,512
12/15/2016 35,389,874
So, from 12/15 to 12/30 - as the stock price rose from 198 to 215 roughly 3.4% of shorts "covered" saving themselves some portion of about $20 million, while the remaining 96.6% of shorts hung in there for approximate losses of $580 million.
Chickens. The remaining shorts are mocking the "chickens". "It's just paper losses. Covering is for quitters."
May their paper losses become real losses dramatically and soon.
racer26
Active Member
Let the margin calls begin.So, from 12/15 to 12/30 - as the stock price rose from 198 to 215 roughly 3.4% of shorts "covered" saving themselves some portion of about $20 million, while the remaining 96.6% of shorts hung in there for approximate losses of $580 million.
Chickens. The remaining shorts are mocking the "chickens". "It's just paper losses. Covering is for quitters."
May their paper losses become real losses dramatically and soon.
So, from 12/15 to 12/30 - as the stock price rose from 198 to 215 roughly 3.4% of shorts "covered" saving themselves some portion of about $20 million, while the remaining 96.6% of shorts hung in there for approximate losses of $580 million.
Chickens. The remaining shorts are mocking the "chickens". "It's just paper losses. Covering is for quitters."
May their paper losses become real losses dramatically and soon.
Sorry I don't understand how are you arriving at these numbers. From the stats we can't tell if those shorts got in at 260 or 180 can we? Seems to me a much more complicated analysis would have to be done to understand what is the distribution of short interest by position creation time.
It's a quick and dirty analysis - it is not to say that "shorts" didn't make bank while TSLA wandered lower, it is just simple math - if (theoretically) all shorts had exited their positions on December 15th at 198 , their account balances would have been $580 million higher than they were on December 30th at 215 (35 million shares x $17/share). I don't care whether they shorted at 180 or 260....just want them to either continue to provide supplemental share pressure upwards as they slowly cover or have them flee as one towards the door like a crowded theatre when someone shouts "fire" in the event of a squeeze.
OK - actually hoping for the (hyperbolic and for literary effect only) cry of "fire" in a crowded theatre...
My spreadsheet with snap shots of shares available for shorting at Fidelity at random times throughout the day is clearly not the perfect way to keep tabs on short interest. For example when I show increased shares during a particular time period it could be due to covering, or due to Fidelity adding more shares to the available pool (although I believe they do it daily before market opens). This data, obviously, also covers although major, but only one Brokerage - Fidelity.
With the understanding that this is not a perfect scientific method, though, it is a way, and the only one in real time, to keep tabs on short interest. So I went back and pulled all of the entries from my spreadsheet that looked like net covering in order to see how the results correlate with Nasdaq short interest data. Based on the summary below suspected net covering at Fidelity captured about 57% of the short interest covering shown by Nadaq for the same period of time.
BTW, today we had a bullish (particularly taking into account macros) SMA(20) and SMA(200) crossover. Looking promising...
racer26
Active Member
I wonder if someone were to keep tabs on IB's availability in a similar pseudo-real time fashion and you compared notes at the end of the NASDAQ reporting period what total fraction of short activity the two account for.
Do we have any other evidence that would support an assertion that Fidelity handles something close to 57% of NASDAQ activity, and thus, that this metric is a reasonable surrogate for having real time data on the true number?
Seems like a reasonable percentage, considering Fidelity is a widely used brokerage as well as being the largest institutional owner of TSLA stock.
DEATH from a thousand paper losses ...So, from 12/15 to 12/30 - as the stock price rose from 198 to 215 roughly 3.4% of shorts "covered" saving themselves some portion of about $20 million, while the remaining 96.6% of shorts hung in there for approximate losses of $580 million.
Chickens. The remaining shorts are mocking the "chickens". "It's just paper losses. Covering is for quitters."
May their paper losses become real losses dramatically and soon.
Considering TSLA is high beta, what's happening today is normal due to macros. People are burned out on Trump Rally.
TSLA was following .IXICup to approximately 10:26am. After that TSLA seem to break this lock step to go higher. The question is if we can keep this uptrend going throughout the day...
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
