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Are you accounting for the possibilities of a successful Space X launch of Saturday?
pz1975
Active Member
People still think a SpaceX successful launch would effect TSLA? I see that theory every few months pop up and it has never correlated. IMO, Tesla is too large of a company now for the stock to move on SpaceX news unless some major disaster happened to SpaceX.
racer26
Active Member
It sure correlated in September when Amos-6 failed. We lost something like $9/share that day if memory serves.
Saturday is the return to flight following that anomaly. Not unreasonable to believe it could have some impact on TSLA's sentiment.
Well, stocks have had a good run. I see more and more chatter about people going to the sidelines... it might not be next week, but it could be the week after or the week after that. The original catalyst of the AP release seems to be now a bit blunted. Maybe it will be awesome early next week. Maybe not. I really know that I really don't know. But I'm positioned, at the moment, for some downside in the next 3 weeks.
I think Q1 is going to end up rocking out. But we won't know that until April at the earliest, June for sure. There's a lot that can happen between now and then. I really have little clarity for what Tesla is going to report in Feb. If they delay the report due to SCTY integration, that could also spook some people.
I'm still torn as to whether or not AP2 is trade-able. I know others disagree, but I think it might have been. At this point, maybe not if the speed limit restriction isn't removed in a timely fashion. But then again, AP2 widespread release next week of some fashion could help drive things up. And maybe Trump says something that makes the market cheer. I think the uncertainty itself will drive the market.
I believe that SpaceX does affect TSLA. But not directly. I believe that it compounded the negativity in the fall. I believe that SpaceX's successes help build the mythos of Musk and help the psychology of investing in TSLA. But not directly.
I think Q1 is going to end up rocking out. But we won't know that until April at the earliest, June for sure. There's a lot that can happen between now and then. I really have little clarity for what Tesla is going to report in Feb. If they delay the report due to SCTY integration, that could also spook some people.
I'm still torn as to whether or not AP2 is trade-able. I know others disagree, but I think it might have been. At this point, maybe not if the speed limit restriction isn't removed in a timely fashion. But then again, AP2 widespread release next week of some fashion could help drive things up. And maybe Trump says something that makes the market cheer. I think the uncertainty itself will drive the market.
I believe that SpaceX does affect TSLA. But not directly. I believe that it compounded the negativity in the fall. I believe that SpaceX's successes help build the mythos of Musk and help the psychology of investing in TSLA. But not directly.
What are the chances my weekly $230s expire 1 cent out of the money?
pz1975
Active Member
Agree - major disaster can lead to stock decline.
I stated that I don't think a successful launch (which is expected) would have an effect on TSLA. It was in the context of looking for positive news that could raise TSLA.
I'm discounting that yes. The issues I see are macro and market related rather than event driven. A successful launch won't effect TSLA much IMO. That said I'm not trading short term here, it's a medium-long term cautionary tail. TSLA may week go up from here and not experience even a local peak- don't know, don't care. This isn't a trade for short term event. Good thought though. Glad you brought it up. Hoping for a great launch!
The spacex short term stock price factor kind of sucks because a flight blowing up is more eventful than a successful one, but chance of success is in the high 90% range.
Of course, I'd be happy to repeat the $225/226 to $231/232 cycle every single day until ER too...
Would have made money again. Not optimal but profitable.
Almost as annoying if it finishes 1 cent in the money. You will wake up Tuesday morning the owner of a very large pile of new shares and a steep bill. I casually let a batch of weeklies expire a few cents in the money and found I had purchased $250k in TSLA
(without any corresponding cash). (In case anyone is wondering, Schwab has a 1-day grace period. Sell to cover that day or else come up the dough or the kneecap breaking collectors come)Would have made money again. Not optimal but profitable.
Almost as annoying if it finishes 1 cent in the money. You will wake up Tuesday morning the owner of a very large pile of new shares and a steep bill. I casually let a batch of weeklies expire a few cents in the money and found I had purchased $250k in TSLA
You can also call them and give the order to "do not exercise" and they won't. I did that with Schwab a couple months ago.
I played the morning dip and afternoon rise game again, and have to admit that small dollar, short-term options trading is addictive.
I won't dare do it with large amounts of money tho.
Was thinking the same thing -- this seems to happen every day.
What kind of options do you play it with?
That was exactly my sentiment towards it this morning! But I did it anyways (and yes, this is gambling, not educated investing). Which is why I only do it with small money...
Did it with slightly-ITM Jan-20s.... thinking back I should have just done it with a larger amount of stock. It's a choice between loosing a few thousand if the trade doesn't work out with short-term options, or sitting on a bunch of stock for a while before it's in the green again.
I'm justifying this activity as a way of "staying in the loop" and understanding the market rather than for the small gains it produces at the expense of a lot of stress. The core stock position is more important, but I enjoy the short-term trading as a way of keeping informed and involved in it.
ricardocabesa
STD free
TSLA will be yuge Friday. (No information, just guessing, but it's time.)
How much are you betting on that? Seems like over half the people here have unraveled their short-term positions.... I'm in between, I know better than to keep doing this but I'm still playing short term to a small extent.
Feeling that markets should be positive in the morning after today's drop, and you maybe correct....
I am still very much long, just de-risked some and took profits.
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