2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[stef]

Uhh...ladies and gentleman? I just saw the photo of the Model 3 charging screen. It implies a range of ~305 miles. If this is true, and it turns out Tesla is able to build in China, partner-free, it could be a really explosive day Thursday. Forget stormy weather. Shortsville might get a rain bomb.

50 min remaining * 169 m/h + 95miles = 235 miles
What am I missing? How did you get 305?

 

[erthquake]

My calculation gets me to 235 Mi range on full charge.

But yes. Longs should be getting pretty hyped about now. TSLA is ready for launch.

You can't use the charging rate as it changes throughout the charging session depending on the state of charge. Measure the length of the displayed battery (106 pixels), divide by the length of the green area (33 pixels), multiplied by 95, I get 305 miles.

 

[Cobos]

50 min remaining * 169 m/h + 95miles = 235 miles
What am I missing? How did you get 305?

Without knowing the timing of the charging charge rate says nothing. The first 1-4 minutes the charge speed is ramping, and this might be during that time? And remaining time is just until the dotted line. So the only way to look at miles of range is to take the percentage of green charge and mutiply the remaining range. Though this might be rated range and not typical range. So not very usefull until we know some more.

Cobos

 

[SteveG3]

You can't use the charging rate as it changes throughout the charging session depending on the state of charge. Measure the length of the displayed battery (106 pixels), divide by the length of the green area (33 pixels), multiplied by 95, I get 305 miles.

Thanks for counting the pixels. I see in the reddit comments one person said the battery is 30.357% charged, but, I don't see that anywhere in the image. Perhaps that number was pulled from the very small battery icon in the upper right hand corner of the narrower portion of the split screen on the left. My eyes can't recognize a number there.

Update: the poster on Reddit estimating 30.357% did so via a ruler, measuring in tenths of a centimeter, so earthquake's pixel estimate looks more accurate (despite the misleading detail of 30.357% by the redditor).

 

[MitchJi]

It isn't clear how much additional capacity if any has been added with the third shift. Thus far it appears it is being used to drastically cut the overtime hours that were contributing to worker injuries.

If the first two shifts were both working twelve hours per day, you might be correct.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You can't use the charging rate as it changes throughout the charging session depending on the state of charge. Measure the length of the displayed battery (106 pixels), divide by the length of the green area (33 pixels), multiplied by 95, I get 305 miles.

This (305) could be ideal, not rated miles.

 

[CorneliusXX]

New rules just announced for the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone where Tesla is rumored to be locating:

'In manufacturing, foreign companies are allowed to produce their own rail transport facilities, instead of having to set up joint ventures with local firms. Rules were also eased for foreign companies manufacturing electric vehicles and related products.'

Free trade zone restrictions loosened | China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone

This is effectively teslas announcement that a factory will be in China without a local partner. The timing of the change in regulation combined with the recent leaks regarding the factory is just too much of a coincidence.

 

[dennis]

This (305) could be ideal, not rated miles.

Doesn't the charging screen on the Model S use rated miles?

If indeed this screen indicates 305 mile range (based on counting pixels) then this is most likely the larger (75kWh) battery. My prediction:

Small battery - 244 miles - more than the Bolt, less than the entry level S75
Larger battery - 305 miles - less than the S100D

 

[Doit]

http://xw.qq.com/tech/20170622032714/TEC2017062203271400
Tencent Tech:
Tencent has learned from its own connection in Shanghai government that an agreement has been signed this morning between Shanghai government and Tesla.

BTW: Tesla definitely is required to has a 50% partner.

 

[MartinAustin]

This is effectively teslas announcement that a factory will be in China without a local partner. The timing of the change in regulation combined with the recent leaks regarding the factory is just too much of a coincidence.

This kinda reminds me of Kirk reprogramming the Kobyashi Maru Test. Elon simply waited until the rules change. (or was a participant in negotiations causing the rule to change) He is automatically differentiated from the other U.S. manufacturers that are in China now, since they are all mired in JVs.

Also, this sends a strong signal to the Indian government to get their act together if they really want Tesla to build there. The rules need to change.

 

[Starno]

Today ATH

 

[ValueAnalyst]

New rules just announced for the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone where Tesla is rumored to be locating:

'In manufacturing, foreign companies are allowed to produce their own rail transport facilities, instead of having to set up joint ventures with local firms. Rules were also eased for foreign companies manufacturing electric vehicles and related products.'

Free trade zone restrictions loosened | China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone

So for what specifically does Tesla need to partner with a local company?

Is China easing the partner requirement all the way?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Just spent 20 minutes trying to buy shares. Turns out Fidelity doesn't open premarket til 7am EST.

-_-

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just spent 20 minutes trying to buy shares. Turns out Fidelity doesn't open premarket til 7am EST.

-_-

I just bought some too.

 

[Navin]

Lordy here it is
Tesla Said to Reach Accord With Shanghai to Explore Production

 

[RobStark]

From reports I read a couple of months ago Tesla will not need a JV partner to make battery cells,battery pack,controllers or share the software contained in the battery pack.

Tesla will need a JV partner to make the automotive gliders.

 

[mrdoubleb]

News hasn't really hit the wires yet (not broadly anyway).

Readying the popcorn for when it does...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If copying technology is really that easy for the Chinese, maybe Tesla could have hired some of them to copy Mobileye or Grohmann's technology

Everyone everywhere always are coming after the leader, you only lose if you stand still. This is definitely not something I would worry about Tesla.

I agree; copying the leader is the best way to get second place.

Anyone remember Xiaomi?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

FWIW -

The team of ~10 SA contributors, who bash Tesla and respond to every positive comment with a lengthy negative response, has started targeting Jeff Dahn's relationship with Tesla.

The following is a direct quote from who appears to be their leader:

"I would suggest VA read and listen to the Dahn interviews, in which he acknowledges that any (marginal) battery improvements he is able to suggest are several years down the road from implementation."

I have listened to Jeff Dahn's interviews, in which Jeff points to significant improvements that are being implemented in Tesla's products now.

It is not surprising that the FUD Montana Skeptic is trying to spread is the direct opposite of facts.

What is surprising, however, is that they are now targeting Jeff Dahn.

We may get a big announcement around battery tech soon.

 

[austinEV]

News hasn't really hit the wires yet (not broadly anyway).

Readying the popcorn for when it does...

Hmmm, this could be a case of us being right, the news event happening, and the stock not reacting in a meaningful way until strangely later. May need to roll those weeklies to next week. Sometimes the markets don't react until a few days after the news, for no particular reason. (up 0.52% at time of writing). Or its just 6:30 EST and this hasnt played out yet.