Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Hmmm, this could be a case of us being right, the news event happening, and the stock not reacting in a meaningful way until strangely later. May need to roll those weeklies to next week. Sometimes the markets don't react until a few days after the news, for no particular reason. (up 0.52% at time of writing). Or its just 6:30 EST and this hasnt played out yet.
True. But as you said it may just be too early in the day for the US.
 
On tangential news... I'm shaking my head at the price action on Whole Foods. Talk about lack of merger arbitrage. The current price assumes the merger will fail *and* a higher bid will be made, which is a crazy risky bet to take. Quite a contrast to the SolarCity pricing (or the Trina Solar pricing).

There is so much mispricing around mergers; sometimes you can make a mint on it, sometimes you just have to stay well away.
Any recommendation about when at accumulate Amazon? I'm not going to pay more for WFM, but is AMZN okay?
 
Doesn't the charging screen on the Model S use rated miles?

If indeed this screen indicates 305 mile range (based on counting pixels) then this is most likely the larger (75kWh) battery. My prediction:

Small battery - 244 miles - more than the Bolt, less than the entry level S75
Larger battery - 305 miles - less than the S100D

The charging screen can show either rated or ideal miles, based on the settings entered on the central screen.

If the picture in question show ideal miles, the corresponding rated miles would be 264, comfortably beating range of the Bolt.

I find it unlikely that Tesla is spending time to test larger battery in RCs when it's production is months away. I think it is more likely that the screen showed ideal miles for the smaller battery.

EDIT: the picture file is too big for upload.
EDIT #2: Here are are the screenshots showing charging screen both ways - rated or ideal miles shown depending on the settings.

Rated.jpg Ideal.jpg
 
Last edited:
Hmmm, this could be a case of us being right, the news event happening, and the stock not reacting in a meaningful way until strangely later. May need to roll those weeklies to next week. Sometimes the markets don't react until a few days after the news, for no particular reason. (up 0.52% at time of writing). Or its just 6:30 EST and this hasnt played out yet.
Yes....weekly options, frought with danger they are - says Yoda day trader.

That being said, there is still no official statement from Tesla with relevant details and the Bloomberg article says they can't get any info from the Shanghai officials. The devil is in the details, is this just an agreement in principle to agree in principle to work together sometime, or is there more info regarding site location, building schedule, tax benefits, targeted production capacity, tax incentives, JV info...? If there are no details, market will likely yawn and say, "Really, Tesla would like to produce in China someday? Quelle surprise!"
 
Thanks for counting the pixels. I see in the reddit comments one person said the battery is 30.357% charged, but, I don't see that anywhere in the image. Perhaps that number was pulled from the very small battery icon in the upper right hand corner of the narrower portion of the split screen on the left. My eyes can't recognize a number there.

Update: the poster on Reddit estimating 30.357% did so via a ruler, measuring in tenths of a centimeter, so earthquake's pixel estimate looks more accurate (despite the misleading detail of 30.357% by the redditor).
a random comment/observation
do not "algobots" bears, mildly influential folks read TMC and Reddit?
this is very positive "buzz" just prior to release, this seems like excellent marketing ploy of "the tease",
tiny bit of upward pressure
"sandbagging" the opponents, "neighborhood nuclear superiority"
 
i have a question that may need to go elsewhere.
I have been trying to teach myself options 'n such
i was interested in what shorts got for the puts of 1/18/2019,
specifically the 27,544 $50 puts and the 12,160 $100 puts if bought the day they became available, IF i understand what OI (open interest) means

imagine my surprise when i look on Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com to try to continue my studies and discover the open interest on those 2 is ZERO!
is the data bad, or did someone cover/purchase back the 27,544 $50 and the 12,160 $100?
its almost exactly 17 months until 1/18/2019
TSLA 01/18/2019 Puts created 6/22/2017 10:38:00 AM GMT

Do i have an incorrect understanding of OI and puts which I think is more likely and that the data is "whacky"
 
  • Informative
Reactions: neroden
Looks like we have a deer in the headlights syndrome as far as market reaction to the news from Shanghai. The pre-market trading is limited in tiers, and more traders are able to trade starting at 8:00am. I think that the volume and SP will go up starting at 8:00am...
 
  • Funny
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
In the Bloomberg article, the first sentence is "Tesla has signed a preliminary agreement with the city of Shanghai to explore production in China". The words "preliminary" and "explore" don't sound very firm to me, and so I am struggling to see why this is major news.

It is a significant concrete step. This agreement has to be signed in order to take the next step.
 
From reports I read a couple of months ago Tesla will not need a JV partner to make battery cells,battery pack,controllers or share the software contained in the battery pack.
That could be very much true, as the 50% restriction applies to "whole vehicle assembly and special purpose motor vehicle production." It seems to me that Tesla can set up 100% owned factory for production of battery, and such.

Tesla will need a JV partner to make the automotive gliders.
This is totally a new beast - my guess is that production of automotive gliders is in a grey area, therefore the government can go either way.
 
It is a significant concrete step. This agreement has to be signed in order to take the next step.

Absolutely correct. I am hoping on some more *color* though that may show some indication on whether a JV is needed for all production, part production (the 'frame of vehicles) or none at all.

Big wish on my part
 
特斯拉两年谈判终落地:牵手上海国企落户临港 - 21经济网

Some juicy detail:
1. Negotiation started 2 years ago
2. All along Tesla had asked too much to reach an agreement with the Shanghai Government, until now
3. The production will be equivalent to that of Gigafactory 1 in Nevada.
4. The joint venture partner will be a state-owned enterprise (SOE), which is not a conventional auto manufacturer
5. An extra benefit to joint venture with an SOE is that there should have no issue of raising capital
6. The joint venture can sell lots of "new energy credit" to other passenger vehicle manufacturers who do not have enough credit, as the new energy credit is required to be 8%, 10%, 12% for 2018, 2019, 2020, respectively for passenger vehicle manufacturers.

My question is: how fast the Shanghai Gigafactory can be built to claim such credit?
 
Last edited:
Yes....weekly options, frought with danger they are - says Yoda day trader.

That being said, there is still no official statement from Tesla with relevant details and the Bloomberg article says they can't get any info from the Shanghai officials. The devil is in the details, is this just an agreement in principle to agree in principle to work together sometime, or is there more info regarding site location, building schedule, tax benefits, targeted production capacity, tax incentives, JV info...? If there are no details, market will likely yawn and say, "Really, Tesla would like to produce in China someday? Quelle surprise!"

Well, the reaction should have logically followed the Tuesday pre-market based on a weaker version of the same rumor.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
Status
Not open for further replies.