Mike Smith
Active Member
How would this activity cause a sharply rising share price? Or even a rising share price at all for more than a $10 increment?
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How would this activity cause a sharply rising share price? Or even a rising share price at all for more than a $10 increment?
IMHO, the candle body is too big for a shooting star. The upper wick is a touch long, but I think it's a bullish belt-hold pattern on the weekly. Also SP is just shy of the upper Bollinger Bands on the weekly. Furthermore multi-period candle patterns are stronger than single period patterns, and TSLA is clearly marching strong with Three Soldiers pattern on the weekly.
I still think there is more upside even though based on the chart pattern (previous double bottom) we should be at the price target. But the price target for a double bottom in a bull market is expected to be hit in 6 months from the low, not 2 months...so right now is too soon. I suspect something else is going on... must read more... Elliot wave?
racer26
Active Member
I love the technical traders that make assertions like this one - a major major rise in the price of TSLA is indeed coming - we all know it, and we know why, too. Model 3, Solar Roof, and TE (as well as TN and future models) are a relatively clear roadmap, on a relatively short time-to-delivery, to a substantially higher number of sales. At some point, it will become impossible for the market to continue to be in denial about this. That point is approaching quickly.
racer26
Active Member
Weirdo glitch of the reporting system. We've seen it dozens of times before. Its not real, forum members have previously had AH orders in during events like that that would have triggered if they were real orders.
Very similar volume for each of the past 3 weeks, and also very similar price rise between start and end of each of those weeks. If that is a result of big/institutional buyers, I am not sure how much the vagaries of MACD, RSI, candle patterns etc really matter until those purchases are over.
If quantity of shorted shares are equal to quantity of covered shares there is no pressure on the stock to go higher. The guy was talking about net covering that supposedly is responsible for the current run-up. He was just flat out wrong.
Saw a huge sell off and my autotrader kicked in for a million shares @ 184.24 price point.
...
and then I snapped out of my daydream.
Imagine there were 100 shares short at 180. Some buyers step in, pushed to 185. 50 of those 100 shorts covered the stock to 190. 100 shares of new shorts now think 190 is better to short and went in while the previous 50 covered. With some additional buyers help stock now goes to 195. Some shorts at 190 covers, etc. etc. Though share price rose quite well in the past month, it's not really a "sharply" rising share price. A rolling short cover actually matches the pattern quite well.
And I use $10 just for an example. In reality it would be a a few cents here a few cents there.
But 50 shares out of 100 covering and then 100 new shorts coming in IS net increase of short interest by 50 shares (100-50+100 = 150 vs.originally 100 shares short). This is equivalent to a dilution of 50 shares, which is not consistent with the increase in SP.
Once again, the guy was talking about net covering driving the stock price up, which is simply not true. The reality of price going up while there is increase in short interest indicates that in spite of the dilution coming from increased short interest SP moves up because the buyers are coming in and the demand is exceeding quantity of new shares coming to the market due to shorting.
The guy in CNBC video is either just lying straight, or is an uninformed idiot. His blabbering just does not add up.
pz1975
Active Member
Yeh the body is quite big for the past week so I think it might either be a shooting star or a tombstone. Neither are good. And not sure if we are looking with the same indicators but I'm seeing 3 weekly bars outside of the Bollinger Bands.
That 50 shares covering is responsible for buying pressure on the way up. And in this hypothetical example, the 100 new shorts didn't come in till the SP rises to the next level so they didn't additional selling pressure for the rise.
I'm not saying short covering is the main reason for the rise in the past month. But I think there are definitely shorts covering with different levels of stop loss triggered. Just like when SP goes down and longs selling. This covering helps the rise by lending additional buying pressure otherwise would not be.
Also the guy didn't say "net covering", he just said "covering".
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I stay extremely bullish on TSLA and in fact bought more yesterday morning when SP was $249.34 or so
TSLA has done something which is rare in its stock trading history. It has closed up positive now for 8 straight weeks, with the last 3 weeks comfortably riding the bollinger. This has happened only twice before in its entire 7 year trading history: in early 2014 and 2013. Former led to subsequent price decline and latter led to exponential price increases.
Putting everything together I think that we are likely to go even higher from here. On the other hand if the SP declines, I expect it to be a rather orderly pullback similar to early 2013 before explosive price action to upside
All in all, I'm pleased with the way this stock is acting and in my opinion 8 straight weeks of price appreciation is cause to buy and not cause to sell, which is exactly what I did yesterday. I could be very wrong here so I do not want anyone to trade on my opinions. I merely state what I see.
TSLA has done something which is rare in its stock trading history. It has closed up positive now for 8 straight weeks, with the last 3 weeks comfortably riding the bollinger. This has happened only twice before in its entire 7 year trading history: in early 2014 and 2013. Former led to subsequent price decline and latter led to exponential price increases.
Putting everything together I think that we are likely to go even higher from here. On the other hand if the SP declines, I expect it to be a rather orderly pullback similar to early 2013 before explosive price action to upside
All in all, I'm pleased with the way this stock is acting and in my opinion 8 straight weeks of price appreciation is cause to buy and not cause to sell, which is exactly what I did yesterday. I could be very wrong here so I do not want anyone to trade on my opinions. I merely state what I see.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Buying more stock yesterday did raise my cost basis to $203.75 but I remain extremely optimistic about future profits which may come in a rather exponential fashion irrespective of an imminent pullback which may or may not happen
Yes, I think we are looking at different charts. Also I am referencing candlestick patterns.
The Daily period charts are a riding the upper bands, whereas the weekly period charts haven't got there yet. The daily period chart IMHO is a bit more mixed in outlook but given the closing strength on Friday (and the hammer on the last day...the bottom, not the top, else it would be a hanged man) I am optimistic on the daily as well.
FWIW, Hirsch in his Almanac indicates that Feb 1 is one of the most bullish stock days for NASDAQ.
BTW, Happy New Year!
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Huh, not sure what you're looking at, but weekly is above BB for four weeks now, see attached
Which I see as a good sign, you got to strech that BB to allow for further price appreciation.
Another way to comment on that is that BB is what stopped Tesla SP rise in 2015, it bounced down first time it got in contact with it.
This time around, SP shows healthy dose of disrespect for BB, which to me indicates immense strength. It's 4 weeks now, not 1 or 2
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
BTW, I did my thing for the 'cause' yesterday.
I put the deposit down on inventory S60, eventhough I couldn't find buyer for my Porsche 996 Turbo; I couldn't wait anymore.
Tesla found me 'almost not insulting trade-in value' for my SL55 AMG, so that one is gone instead. I'm very excited to pick up S60! And I'm keeping my model 3 reservation, just in case
And to stay on point of this thread, as I was checking the car, there was another Tesla sales rep from Montreal with the buyer that was interested. He called my rep couple of times while we were going through the process. And, I'm sure it wasn't doctored; if anything, my weakness is that I'm always very suspicious of the setups, and always looking for one.
Second car I was thinking about, the least expensive inventory X75D was also gone in the number of hours. And finally, few P100Ds that have had some discounts were also gone yesterday, so yeah, inventory Teslas are still selling, though they've become less affordable in Canada. Way less affordable I'm sure Tesla can crunch some interesting data on demand elasticity with price increase over last 2 years in Canada, though they'd have to cross check against overall growth trends, and against velocity of brand penetration in areas where Teslas are being sold. I. e. not all areas grow at the same speed, rate of growth is an (increasing) function of local markets maturity. Toronto is probably now where California was in 2015, Montreal is probably a bit ahead, bc. of the more extensive grants etc...
I put the deposit down on inventory S60, eventhough I couldn't find buyer for my Porsche 996 Turbo; I couldn't wait anymore.
Tesla found me 'almost not insulting trade-in value' for my SL55 AMG, so that one is gone instead. I'm very excited to pick up S60! And I'm keeping my model 3 reservation, just in case
And to stay on point of this thread, as I was checking the car, there was another Tesla sales rep from Montreal with the buyer that was interested. He called my rep couple of times while we were going through the process. And, I'm sure it wasn't doctored; if anything, my weakness is that I'm always very suspicious of the setups, and always looking for one.
Second car I was thinking about, the least expensive inventory X75D was also gone in the number of hours. And finally, few P100Ds that have had some discounts were also gone yesterday, so yeah, inventory Teslas are still selling, though they've become less affordable in Canada. Way less affordable
I'm sure Tesla can crunch some interesting data on demand elasticity with price increase over last 2 years in Canada, though they'd have to cross check against overall growth trends, and against velocity of brand penetration in areas where Teslas are being sold. I. e. not all areas grow at the same speed, rate of growth is an (increasing) function of local markets maturity. Toronto is probably now where California was in 2015, Montreal is probably a bit ahead, bc. of the more extensive grants etc...- Status
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