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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Pure rumor:
On reddit, by user ElonsVelvetJacket
"Effective immediately many Tesla stores will be permanently closed"

Wasn't that the user that tweeted a bunch other rumors that came true?
/u/ElonsVelvetJacket is indeed the user which appears to be in upper management at the store level. Everything he's said on reddit has come true.

The only thing I can think of is closing the high-end mall showroom-only type stores, because they're expensive and not well suited to selling cars, and most people order through the website anyway. They mainly existed to get the name out to where wealthy people are. With Model 3 becoming a rolling billboard soon, this is the only logical thing I can come up with.
 
Further rumor is that sales/service locations are going "just service".

To me *that* makes sense.

There are enough states with weird sales restrictions... and only one with restrictions on service centers. it's sensible to have a straight up "service center" model which can be deployed anywhere but Michigan, and worry about the stores/galleries separately. Also, the galleries need to be in prominent (i.e. expensive) locations, and the service centers absolutely do not (they can be in cheap locations).
 
But why yesterday of all days? Why not February 2016? Or one of the many previous ridiculous sell offs that have occurred since IPO? You know Model 3 is coming and that it'll be a sell out for at least a few years. You know Tesla Energy is coming, Tesla Solar, etc... You were up a crap ton, didn't need to sell (or did you? to buy something?) and you knew it would recover. I don't understand the decision to sell yesterday given how long you've been holding and then to just jump back in - meaning you didn't sell because you're expecting a worldwide recession or anything like that.

Why yesterday vs. Feb 2016? I mentioned in another post that my strategy used to be 'buy and hold' to avoid short-term captial gains tax. Then I reconsidered since playing big swings will put you financially ahead vs long term vs. short term capital gains tax rate. So over the last 6 months or a year, when a big swing is clear, I'll try to play it depending on the size of the swing.

Why yesterday vs. Jul 5? Easy. I can't predict market action very well. Obviously this reaction to the delivery numbers is overblown--I just didn't know that it would be THIS overblown. If the swing is +/- $20, I'm not usually going to try to play it. But on a $50+ swing, getting out until the bleeding stops instead of riding it all the way to the bottom was worth the risk of potentially having to buy back slightly above where I sold it.

Long story short, I just made $8 a share off the trade. Holding and not selling would have made me $0 a share.
 
/u/ElonsVelvetJacket is indeed the user which appears to be in upper management at the store level. Everything he's said on reddit has come true.

The only thing I can think of is closing the high-end mall showroom-only type stores, because they're expensive and not well suited to selling cars, and most people order through the website anyway. They mainly existed to get the name out to where wealthy people are. With Model 3 becoming a rolling billboard soon, this is the only logical thing I can come up with.

Stores are silly in a model 3 world. Notice that they did not say Service Centers. I think you nailed it, you need more service centers and have a small amount of showroom floor and have a place inside to do hand overs for new S/X sales. They should just probably deliver Model 3 and people can just watch the videos in their driveway. Now if the stores sold solar as well, that could be a negative for the TE side of the business.
 
Also from the velvet jacket Reddit thread:


employee9999

12m
throwaway in case my boss is on reddit ;) As an employee in a mall location, we were told a few weeks ago that upper management was going to begin cracking down hard on underperforming stores. I was explicitly told layoffs would occur if necessary, no mention was made of actual store closures though so who knows if this is related.
 
Given that the cars have a long reservation list and the solar roof has a long reservation list and the Powerwalls and Powerpacks have long reservation lists, stores are probably not a good use of Tesla's cash at this time. Bluntly.

I suppose with Model S sales plateauing there is some need for some stores... but you get my point. When you have long backlogs, stores are not a priority.
 
Given that the cars have a long reservation list and the solar roof has a long reservation list and the Powerwalls and Powerpacks have long reservation lists, stores are probably not a good use of Tesla's cash at this time. Bluntly.

I suppose with Model S sales plateauing there is some need for some stores... but you get my point. When you have long backlogs, stores are not a priority.

In my area they are closing or re-allocating smaller locations. For example, they changed one service center in a place where they work on used Tesla to get them ready for resale. They used to be a service center/store location. They moved the store and service to a huge dealership like building with a huge log and good sized showroom. They did not close down the old location as they are using it, but the overall footprint for sales and service got much larger. I was just as a store/service center yesterday and all the same folks where there. But that was yesterday.
 
The FUDster's are jumping on the reddit thread.

Screen Shot 2017-07-07 at 9.15.06 AM.png
 
I'm not sure that's FUD... with >500,000 reservations, a planned 400,000 production capacity in 2018, and maybe 20K-40K produced this year, Tesla really doesn't need that much in the way of "stores" for 2018. I think many reservation holders will still want to take test drives before finalizing, so some Model 3s will have to be delivered to stores for test drives, but having a lot of salespeople would be silly.

If anything it's incredibly bullish. "We not only don't need to pay for advertising, we don't even need showrooms to sell our cars. They sell themselves."

(Of course, now I'm having the humorous vision of a Model 3 "selling itself" by autonomously driving up to people and showing off its features, with a "please input your credit card number on the touchscreen to buy me" message. So I don't literally mean "selling itself"; it's a metaphor. ;) )
 
In my area there is a mall store in King of Prussia and a Service Center in Devon 10 minutes away that has sales also. I can see that a store in the SC in the situation is not needed, especially will 400,000+ reservations on the '3'
 
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