Yeah it seems like they might as well wait and do a big up round, just in time for gigafactory 2.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
If the M3 launch is a success they'll sell debt, not equity for GF2. Why dilute shares if not necessary, especially with interest rates so low?
A bit of a crossover post here, apologies in advance if it should have been in the other thread. But it involves an actual trade, so here it is. This is not investment advice, etc.
For a few days I've been thinking that it's time to increase my TSLA exposure. At the end of Q3 last year, we saw Elon trying really hard to make a profitable quarter, but he had (in Q2 report) said he thought Q4 might be profitable too. In Q4 we had the merger with SCTY, which SCTY had said they expected cash-flow positive in Q4. But at the end of Q4, we saw a "normal" push from Tesla, not the "pull out all stops" push. Why? I believe it's because they already knew they were going to be mildly profitable, based on cash flow from TE and SCTY. So this is why I decided to increase my exposure. (Of course another explanation would be that they knew they couldn't come close, so why bother. But I'm an optimist.) I wanted some call options that were going to be comfortably after the Q4 earnings report, which might be after Feb 17, so I went for Mar 17. I wanted to not have too much time premium, which means a smaller number of deep in the money contracts. So I went looking.
I don't quite know how I managed it, but I got $175 strike calls for $77.50, at an instant when TSLA was trading at $252.80. (Initially bid $76.5, but then TSLA went up a bit, so I adjusted my bid.) That is, a slightly negative time premium! I could have exercised them and sold for $0.30 profit at the same time. This isn't supposed to happen, the computers should have got there first. But I'm happy. This gives me good leverage.
At the time I started this post, the last trade was still mine. But the bid is now above that, so I'm up a few hundred dollars. Moral: occasionally there are bargains.
For a few days I've been thinking that it's time to increase my TSLA exposure. At the end of Q3 last year, we saw Elon trying really hard to make a profitable quarter, but he had (in Q2 report) said he thought Q4 might be profitable too. In Q4 we had the merger with SCTY, which SCTY had said they expected cash-flow positive in Q4. But at the end of Q4, we saw a "normal" push from Tesla, not the "pull out all stops" push. Why? I believe it's because they already knew they were going to be mildly profitable, based on cash flow from TE and SCTY. So this is why I decided to increase my exposure. (Of course another explanation would be that they knew they couldn't come close, so why bother. But I'm an optimist.) I wanted some call options that were going to be comfortably after the Q4 earnings report, which might be after Feb 17, so I went for Mar 17. I wanted to not have too much time premium, which means a smaller number of deep in the money contracts. So I went looking.
I don't quite know how I managed it, but I got $175 strike calls for $77.50, at an instant when TSLA was trading at $252.80. (Initially bid $76.5, but then TSLA went up a bit, so I adjusted my bid.) That is, a slightly negative time premium! I could have exercised them and sold for $0.30 profit at the same time. This isn't supposed to happen, the computers should have got there first. But I'm happy. This gives me good leverage.
At the time I started this post, the last trade was still mine. But the bid is now above that, so I'm up a few hundred dollars. Moral: occasionally there are bargains.
I keep having to roll the call that I sold forward so my stock doesn't sell. I now rolled 1/27 250 call to 2/24 260 at no cost. I'm probably going to have to roll it again, but luckily, I can do it for ever until the stock stops climbing aggressively for a few weeks, which is bound to happen eventually.... The great news is that my January 2019 220 Leap I bought a while ago is up over 95%! 
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I keep having to roll the call that I sold forward so my stock doesn't sell. I now rolled 1/27 250 call to 2/24 260 at no cost. I'm probably going to have to roll it again, but luckily, I can do it for ever until the stock stops climbing aggressively for a few weeks, which is bound to happen eventually.... The great news is that my January 2019 220 Leap I bought a while ago is up over 95%!
There is a rate of SP increase at which point this works only partially, or almost stops working.
So frustrating.......Back in Dec, I finally caved and turned my vertical put credit spreads into iron condors. The 250 Calls I sold were supposed to be 'so far out that they should be safe'. Fast forward to now and the stock is up 20% in less than a month and breached my 250 calls. Arrgghhhh.....where was this last January when all my vertical spreads failed because the price took a nose-dive.
Every piece of news this month sends the price sky rocketing. Last year, every piece of news did nothing for me. Good news = price goes down. Arrrgg!!!
Every piece of news this month sends the price sky rocketing. Last year, every piece of news did nothing for me. Good news = price goes down. Arrrgg!!!
Thank you - fixed.
Here is an update, note that interest rate went up to 2.75% shortly after noon. Interestingly, it is so far net shorting day at Fidelity
Ever since closing my short term short puts at 235, I've been in a rut - paralysis by analysis. It's a fine rut to be in as I've held 100% of my shares, but I'm not sure what to do with options.
Sell puts? Worried about a dip as we've been rising fast, possibly too fast.
Sell calls? At the same time, there's no indication that the trend is over. We could be headed to ATH and I don't want to limit gains/get my shares called away. For both option writing cases, the premiums are nothing to write home about so I'm not enticed.
Buy calls? As seen above, I'm clueless on short term and the ER is a big question mark. I guess I could do long-dated calls, but then I usually get carried away and select too high of a strike in an effort to leverage.
I think this means options are currently priced appropriately, which means I should be doing nothing. However, I may have just talked myself into a strangle. I think we will get a moderate ($20-30) move soon, just not sure which direction.
Sell puts? Worried about a dip as we've been rising fast, possibly too fast.
Sell calls? At the same time, there's no indication that the trend is over. We could be headed to ATH and I don't want to limit gains/get my shares called away. For both option writing cases, the premiums are nothing to write home about so I'm not enticed.
Buy calls? As seen above, I'm clueless on short term and the ER is a big question mark. I guess I could do long-dated calls, but then I usually get carried away and select too high of a strike in an effort to leverage.
I think this means options are currently priced appropriately, which means I should be doing nothing. However, I may have just talked myself into a strangle. I think we will get a moderate ($20-30) move soon, just not sure which direction.
I'm hoping we don't hit that kind of increase. We've gone up so much since the Spiegel bottom, that baring a real short squeeze, I should be o.k. At some point, if I'm forced to sell at 300+, I'll take my profits and get back in on a dip....
If Tesla, perhaps it was to some degree related to meetings between Musk with Trump recently to discuss manufacturing in America.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Looks like TSLA is trying to end the day on/near its high of $254
A height last danced with between April 8th and 27th or so
EDIT - it blew through that while I was typing, I wonder if $255 is possible? Surely that is an important boundary line
A height last danced with between April 8th and 27th or so
EDIT - it blew through that while I was typing, I wonder if $255 is possible? Surely that is an important boundary line
Sold some shares at $252.8, now my TSLA position is down to 126% of my portfolio.
I think we'll break $260 this week.
I think we'll break $260 this week.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Another dose of pain coming for the shorts tomorrow afternoon when the Jan 15 short interest is released. It will show that they've not even begun to untangle the mess they've created - they've only entangled themselves further! With this momentum it would probably take a 100 points for them to meaningfully unwind.
If we continue this steady march up I will probably buy protective puts once ER date is announced to coincide with expiry just after.
As of 3:32pm IB has at least 218K shares available to short at an interest rate of 2.08%
Gtoffo
Member
We must be entering short squeeze territory here.... it just keeps going up! Pity most of my options expired friday..... lucky I exercised some of them so I have some stock to ride.
I have a theory which is merely based on feeling:
EVIDENCE
- steady stock rise within clearly defined boundaries
- no pullback, no profit taking. Basically just a continuous climb.
- shorts activity remains very strong with high short interest
- positive market sentiment towards the stock since the beginning of the year. The narrative has been "this is the year of M3".
- little ammo for shorts to combat the rise since not a lot of shares are available for shorting making them vulnerable.
CONSPIRACY THEORY
Someone has set an algo to buy stock in order to cause a steady rise (according to a predetermined growth rate) and squeeze the shorts out.
They are capitalising on relatively low prices and on a generally positive market sentiment that could support the rise and targeting TSLA given the very high short interest and low amount of shares available for shorting.
Too crazy? Resources needed would probably be quite high. Maybe it's Elon?
I have a theory which is merely based on feeling:
EVIDENCE
- steady stock rise within clearly defined boundaries
- no pullback, no profit taking. Basically just a continuous climb.
- shorts activity remains very strong with high short interest
- positive market sentiment towards the stock since the beginning of the year. The narrative has been "this is the year of M3".
- little ammo for shorts to combat the rise since not a lot of shares are available for shorting making them vulnerable.
CONSPIRACY THEORY
Someone has set an algo to buy stock in order to cause a steady rise (according to a predetermined growth rate) and squeeze the shorts out.
They are capitalising on relatively low prices and on a generally positive market sentiment that could support the rise and targeting TSLA given the very high short interest and low amount of shares available for shorting.
Too crazy? Resources needed would probably be quite high. Maybe it's Elon?
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