2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Peoria]

One of the rare times with $TSLA when you want to buy the news. After this morning everyone who wants out should be out.

 

[Navin]

I did - with two hands and two feet.

 

[1kEE]

Buy, buy, buy!

I did some 267 and more at 261

Wonder if that many longs are disappointed with ER, or did short pressure during premarket start this?

 

[1kEE]

Wow... over 4m shares traded in 15 mins. That shakes out a bunch of weak longs....

 

[Dynastar]

Nah. I suspect we get the 'delivery event' alluded to in mid July, and they'll deliver the first few (dozen? hundred? I dunno) cars to employees at the event.

That'll serve as the final 'here's Model 3' type event. From that point, they'll likely open general public configurator, and people start getting their cars in September.

I just can't see how this will work in practice. If they wait until after production has started Model 3 leaks will be flying fast and furious.

 

[Peoria]

20 minutes is about right for the "meh ER panic" to consolidate. Hopefully the high 250's is the bottom and up from here.

 

[hoang51]

Big difference between yesterday's after hours and today's premarket hours in terms of trading. Today's action took a big dump. The bad news that I see what can drag down is hardly anything to consider. Like dilution or a come back of CFO.

 

[Buddyroe]

Wonder if that many longs are disappointed with ER, or did short pressure during premarket start this?

Most people who haven't let their good judgement be clouded with emotion realize just how bad the ER is. With Tesla, it ALWAYS seems to be, "yes, this ER is not good, but right around the corner, something great is about to happen." I think people are simply tiring of it and are ready to see the results.

And I think MOST all realistic people figure if you can't make money on a vehicle that is in a class where EVERY other car manufacturer is raking in the profits, then you surely aren't going to make money on a mid-size sedan where no other manufacture makes very much money.

I for one see very little profit from the M3. People think the car will be $35k (a ton of the people who put their $1k down). But, as we all know, the $35k car will have very small margins. The money will be made on the options - which will push the price of the car to $45-$50k (even Elon said that) before Tesla really makes decent money on the car. That's when a ton of people who put their deposit on this car will get squeezed out. It's a catch 22. Those people will either buy a base M3 with little margin, or will decide to wait and buy a better-equipped version on the used market at a later time. Neither of which is good for Tesla.

 

[Papafox]

Volume is too great for this being primarily the work of shorts. This is mostly longs who didn't like the ER.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Volume is too great for this being primarily the work of shorts. This is mostly longs who didn't like the ER.

Or large institutions taking profits? If I ran an investment up 40% in a few months and knew next to nothing about the energy world, I'd certainly be selling right now just to book the cheese.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nah. I suspect we get the 'delivery event' alluded to in mid July, and they'll deliver the first few (dozen? hundred? I dunno) cars to employees at the event.

I think your count is off. I expect thousands made for employees. Tesla and SpaceX employees were given the opportunity and it wouldn't surprise me if in the meantime of the SCTY merge that also those employees have also been given a chance to get first in line.

 

[JRP3]

I for one see very little profit from the M3. People think the car will be $35k (a ton of the people who put their $1k down). But, as we all know, the $35k car will have very small margins. The money will be made on the options - which will push the price of the car to $45-$50k (even Elon said that) before Tesla really makes decent money on the car. That's when a ton of people who put their deposit on this car will get squeezed out.

Not sure why you seem to think only Model 3 buyers are unaware of the standard practice of base model pricing, which all vehicles have. Apparently you think all Model 3 depositors are morons...

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think your count is off. I expect thousands made for employees. Tesla and SpaceX employees were given the opportunity and it wouldn't surprise me if in the meantime of the SCTY merge that also those employees have also been given a chance to get first in line.

I don't think you'll see thousands of cars delivered at the delivery event.

 

[Drax7]

The most bearish event I see going forward is a capital raise.

Once it's announced I expect the stock to rally sharply.

The capital raise will punctuate the bottom.

Let me qualify that, I am delusional at times.

 

[Mike Smith]

A lot of small retail investors were probably taken in by the Jim Cramer lie on CNBC this morning when he claimed that Musk said in the conference call M3 margins were going to be 'horrendous'. In fact he said they'd be horrendous the day they started the line (obviously), then rise to around the same as s+x by the end of the year - around 30%. I'd be selling to if I thought M3 margins were going to be horrendous.

 

[MartinAustin]

Wow... over 4m shares traded in 15 mins. That shakes out a bunch of weak longs....

Does it make you a weak long if you sell at $281 yesterday morning and buy it all right back (plus some more shares) at $260 this morning?

 

[Runarbt]

The most bearish event I see going forward is a capital raise.

Once it's announced I expect the stock to rally sharply.

The capital raise will punctuate the bottom.

Let me qualify that, I am delusional at times.

If they planned to raise capital now, it wasnt any smart to mention this and make the stock take a dip. Thats why I think capital raise isnt imminent, but during the next few months perhaps.

 

[EinSV]

Converted some shares to J19 150s this morning. No idea if the SP will rebound quickly or drop more first but given the positive long-term news yesterday wanted to lock in the price.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think you'll see thousands of cars delivered at the delivery event.

What delivery event? You think the employees need a 'delivery event'?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Wouldn't it make sense for the large institutional investors to sell off some of their position, which would depress the SP (while also taking some profits, which is great), then participate in the cap raise and get new shares at a lower price?