2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[racer26]

I'm pretty sure the HUD will be revealed for MS/MX in March. This is what Musk was referring to as M3 reveal part 3, since it will also be used in M3. The final M3 unveiling will then come near start of production. Remember Musk had said all new technologies will be available in MS/MX first.

I mentioned on Friday - the Tesla sales guy who handled my overnight test drive alluded to a 'press conference' in the coming days or weeks with Elon disclosing something about Model 3. This coming to me two days *after* Elon said on ER that final reveal of M3 not until much closer to deliveries screams HUD, and that it will be available in the immediate future on S/X (presumably added to the line during the shutdown). He implied that he expected more big lines to reserve - though not quite as extreme as on 3/31, when he said they were wrapped around the building with line.

 

[larmor]

I'm pretty sure the HUD will be revealed for MS/MX in March. This is what Musk was referring to as M3 reveal part 3, since it will also be used in M3. The final M3 unveiling will then come near start of production. Remember Musk had said all new technologies will be available in MS/MX first. This also allows them to work out any kinks with the HUD prior to M3 launch.

What about announcing bundled home solar with model 3?

 

[T3slaTulips]

Why is it that TSLA always takes the stairs up, but the elevator down ?

It's Electric cars, so it works the opposite way gasoline at the pump prices do...

 

[Nate the Great]

I mentioned on Friday - the Tesla sales guy who handled my overnight test drive alluded to a 'press conference' in the coming days or weeks with Elon disclosing something about Model 3. This coming to me two days *after* Elon said on ER that final reveal of M3 not until much closer to deliveries screams HUD, and that it will be available in the immediate future on S/X (presumably added to the line during the shutdown). He implied that he expected more big lines to reserve - though not quite as extreme as on 3/31, when he said they were wrapped around the building with line.

This is a good leak!

 

[PaulRocket]

I mentioned on Friday - the Tesla sales guy who handled my overnight test drive alluded to a 'press conference' in the coming days or weeks with Elon disclosing something about Model 3. This coming to me two days *after* Elon said on ER that final reveal of M3 not until much closer to deliveries screams HUD, and that it will be available in the immediate future on S/X (presumably added to the line during the shutdown). He implied that he expected more big lines to reserve - though not quite as extreme as on 3/31, when he said they were wrapped around the building with line.

Why would a Tesla sales guy know about this press conference? They usually don't know more then us or get info an hour before it get's released. Seems fishy to me.

 

[Driver Dave]

The first 3 that comes out of the factory... right back up to 280 and beyond.

 

[erthquake]

I mentioned on Friday - the Tesla sales guy who handled my overnight test drive alluded to a 'press conference' in the coming days or weeks with Elon disclosing something about Model 3. This coming to me two days *after* Elon said on ER that final reveal of M3 not until much closer to deliveries screams HUD, and that it will be available in the immediate future on S/X (presumably added to the line during the shutdown). He implied that he expected more big lines to reserve - though not quite as extreme as on 3/31, when he said they were wrapped around the building with line.

He could have been alluding to Musk's comment back in November re: a reveal in 3-4 months. Very possible the sales person might not have heard or read anything about the Q4 ER at that point. I've read too many anecdotes of Tesla sales people passing on rumor or incorrect information as fact. Huge grain of salt here.

 

[racer26]

He could have been alluding to Musk's comment back in November re: a reveal in 3-4 months. Very possible the sales person might not have heard or read anything about the Q4 ER at that point. I've read too many anecdotes of Tesla sales people passing on rumor or incorrect information as fact. Huge grain of salt here.

I agree. When I originally posted it on Friday, I wrapped it in a big pile of - this is subject to the usual skepticism that anecdotes from Tesla low-level employees should be treated with.

His word choice did not sound to me like regurgitating the Musk comment from November. In talking about Model 3 with him, he said they were expecting more big line ups soon, and I asked why, and he seemed surprised I hadn't heard about whatever this 'press conference' is, given my near-encyclopedic knowledge of all things Tesla, for someone who doesn't own one. I even said something to the effect of 'that's surprising, given what was said on the ER two days ago'.

I wouldn't pin any investing decisions on it, but contextually, a HUD update to S/X would fit. Its not really a Model 3 announcement, much like AP2 in the fall, but it has that 'oh yeah, and this will be on Model 3 in a few months too.' closer.

 

[neroden]

I'm beginning to suspect there won't be a HUD. Probably won't matter.

ANYway, the short term market movement is still totally decoupled from news and decoupled from fundamentals. As always. The trending negative news about how bad Autopilot 2.0 currently is... seems to be having no effect on the market.

 

[MitchJi]

The first 3 that comes out of the factory... right back up to 280 and beyond.

It might go above $280 based on the a stellar Q1 possibly with some TE.

 

[racer26]

I'm beginning to suspect there won't be a HUD. Probably won't matter.

ANYway, the short term market movement is still totally decoupled from news and decoupled from fundamentals. As always. The trending negative news about how bad Autopilot 2.0 currently is... seems to be having no effect on the market.

Personally, I think that Model 3 without HUD would drive a lot of cancellations. I don't want to be looking to the center of the car and down for critical driving information like speed, or in the case of autopilot, the visual representation of what the car is seeing.

Having experienced autopilot on the weekend, my feelings are simple: anyone who gets into an accident using that technology as it sits is an idiot who shouldn't have a driver's license. While it is far from perfect, I was easily able to sense when it was doing something wrong, and act to correct it, and quickly learned what sort of road conditions it was prone to making mistakes in.

 

[Waiting4M3]

What about announcing bundled home solar with model 3?

That could be interesting, but if it's Solar and M3, why not announcing it at the Q4 ER lat week? Why wait some days/weeks right after the ER to do a separate announcement? IMO it's more likely it's related to the MS/MX interior update that also will show up in the M3, they're waiting for the shutdown/tooling upgrading to finish to show this.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I agree. When I originally posted it on Friday, I wrapped it in a big pile of - this is subject to the usual skepticism that anecdotes from Tesla low-level employees should be treated with.

His word choice did not sound to me like regurgitating the Musk comment from November. In talking about Model 3 with him, he said they were expecting more big line ups soon, and I asked why, and he seemed surprised I hadn't heard about whatever this 'press conference' is, given my near-encyclopedic knowledge of all things Tesla, for someone who doesn't own one. I even said something to the effect of 'that's surprising, given what was said on the ER two days ago'.

I wouldn't pin any investing decisions on it, but contextually, a HUD update to S/X would fit. Its not really a Model 3 announcement, much like AP2 in the fall, but it has that 'oh yeah, and this will be on Model 3 in a few months too.' closer.

Looking back, the invitation to M3 announcement last year went out on March 4th, so could we all be jumping the gun too much here?

 

[SolarUnderwood]

I guessed TSLA would fall to the $240 range after that ER, but I didn't imagine it would reach this level so quickly.

Hopefully it settles a bit here. I don't see this falling lower than the $220's through the capital raise. Until the raise, there's too much uncertainty for my to get back in. This final Model 3 reveal will be crucial, and hopefully we don't have to wait until July.

Also, we really need some news on the Solar Roof because the SolarCity concerns are only going to hamper this stock more, and more.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Why, or why AJ always have to be the most forward looking analyst in the room? Apparently MS issued a note today extolling Tesla entrance to the insurance market.

Somehow I think that this will not help the SP...

Tesla is expanding its total available market and value proposition by weighing offering insurance on its cars, Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Adam Jonas, said in a note Monday

 

[Mike Smith]

I mentioned on Friday - the Tesla sales guy who handled my overnight test drive alluded to a 'press conference' in the coming days or weeks with Elon disclosing something about Model 3. This coming to me two days *after* Elon said on ER that final reveal of M3 not until much closer to deliveries screams HUD, and that it will be available in the immediate future on S/X (presumably added to the line during the shutdown). He implied that he expected more big lines to reserve - though not quite as extreme as on 3/31, when he said they were wrapped around the building with line.

Why would revealing the HUD cause lineups at the stores? Sounds more like model Y is about to be revealed (as well as HUD). This could be a March to remember.

 

[AlMc]

Why would revealing the HUD cause lineups at the stores? Sounds more like model Y is about to be revealed (as well as HUD). This could be a March to remember.

Not to be offensive: Why would they release info about the Y when everyone is waiting for more info on the timing of the 3?

The market is negatively reacting to what they perceive as a delay in the final reveal if the 3 from March to July and the 'imminent cash raise/need'.
The last thing we all need is to discuss yet another model that will be available 'soon'

 

[racer26]

Not to be offensive: Why would they release info about the Y when everyone is waiting for more info on the timing of the 3?

The market is negatively reacting to what they perceive as a delay in the final reveal if the 3 from March to July and the 'imminent cash raise/need'.
The last thing we all need is to discuss yet another model that will be available 'soon'

Agreed. Revealing Y would be stupid.

I could maybe see an argument though for revealing more on Solar Roof pricing and preordering. That could conceivably cause lineups.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Why, or why AJ always have to be the most forward looking analyst in the room? Apparently MS issued a note today extolling Tesla entrance to the insurance market.

Somehow I think that this will not help the SP...

Tesla is expanding its total available market and value proposition by weighing offering insurance on its cars, Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Adam Jonas, said in a note Monday

Of all the analysts out there AJ seems to have some good sources.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Revealing Y would be stupid.

I'd think it would send the stock sub $200 if they revealed Y before producing 3's.