2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Reciprocity]

I just took in my Model X for service and the guy was telling me that they had no X's until recently and they where using CPO as loaners. They now have S/X loaners. No P100Ds yet, but I drove what appears to be a new X75D with the newer faster 0-60 and its very noticeably more peppy and responsive. its crazy to think that a car can improve that much in just 7 months. If its not the new motor/inverter then there is something wrong with mine.

 

[Ryo]

We're down $70+ from our high and the first production model 3 rolls off the line tomorrow. Not sure where the short term bottom lies, but I have started adding to my position.

 

[Richgoogol]

I think you mean $316.50

Damn still living on Monday.

 

[MitchJi]

Because the production line maxes out right around 100k. Even if there was demand for 200k, Tesla wouldn't be able to build them.

I'm surprised people keep discussing all this other stuff and are forgetting the tesla imposed supply constraint.

Perhaps after model 3 they will add or update lines, but the plan has been to Max at 100k for several years now and focus on model 3.

Tesla could add a fourth shift to the MS-MX production line.

 

[MartinAustin]

Well, I just sold my AMZN which I had bought at $839. Ready to put it into TSLA some time today.

 

[jhm]

Bought more at $314. Need mo' pi.

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh, hello February 2016.

 

[neroden]

I have to think that many investors that properly timed the top around 380 are looking to jump back in as soon as the knife stops falling. Hopefully 330 is it. Getting in now and riding back to 380 is over a 10% return in short order.

Due to the way taxable gains work in the US, it would have been essentially breakeven for me to get out at 380 and get back in at 313 (pay *full rate* taxes now instead of long-term capital gain taxes later on the runup from 180...) so I'm perfectly happy to have bought and held. I suppose I should have done more trading on the IRA shares. This is looking like there may be a real buying opportunity, though, because this is ridiculous. I think either there is very high computer-trading action or one of the major institutions decided to dump stock.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Oh, hello February 2016.

That's exactly what's happening, but with a relatively more clear outlook for Model 3 and Tesla Energy.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Due to the way taxable gains work in the US, it would have been essentially breakeven for me to get out at 380 and get back in at 313 (pay *full rate* taxes now instead of long-term capital gain taxes later on the runup from 180...) so I'm perfectly happy to have bought and held. I suppose I should have done more trading on the IRA shares. This is looking like there may be a real buying opportunity, though, because this is ridiculous. I think either there is very high computer-trading action or one of the major institutions decided to dump stock.

I agree. The valuation vs. outlook is even more ridiculous than in February 2016.

 

[larmor]

Well, I just sold my AMZN which I had bought at $839. Ready to put it into TSLA some time today.

Man, that is great timing... I think i sold amzn back at $321...

 

[larmor]

There is intense selling pressure, one day prior to release of M3, volume product, when the entire past year and a half the market has been fretting that tesla can't make or will delay the M3... Hmmm...

 

[racer26]

Oh, hello February 2016.

I was just saying to my friend how this feels like that, or November 2016 right before the Spiegel bottom. The question is what number is November's 179 or February's 140?

Tons of us seem to have big piles of cash on the sidelines ready to swoop in when the floor becomes apparent.

Huge drops not backed up by a change in the fundamentals are ripe candidates for steep reversals.

 

[neroden]

For perspective, the drop on the day of the Solarcity news was 219.6 to 196.7 (10.4%). Today it was 352.6 to 327.4 (7.1%). There was a lot of angst about Solarcity. Today, we are on the very cusp of M3. It's pretty hard to believe how the market behaves!

At least I could figure out what the market was reacting to with the SolarCity news. This is just *nonsense*. (like the Feburary 2016 dip)

Better than expected Model 3 production rate; S & X production at the high end of guidance, deliveries at the low end but within guidance; NASDAQ doing OK; other carmakers doing jack and *sugar*... Sure, Tesla got an imperfect IIHS score, but this is simply silly. It has to be supply and demand. Someone is unloading shares.

 

[MartinAustin]

Is this what a tsunami of pain looks like.. $311+

How appropriate, but... it's bulls feeling the pain!!!

one day prior to release of M3...

The Model 3 is NOT BEING RELEASED on Friday. We do not even know for sure they will finish off SN#1 on Friday. They might have encountered a snag already. We don't even know if SN#1 is going to be a customer car, they might be keeping one or more of the first production numbers around for testing. We need to stop overbuilding our expectations... like when the Model 3 Owners' Club people published a prediction of thousands of cars being in the launch event.

 

[WarpedOne]

One who laughs the last, laughs the longest!

 

[neroden]

I was just saying to my friend how this feels like that, or November 2016 right before the Spiegel bottom. The question is what number is November's 179 or February's 140?

Tons of us seem to have big piles of cash on the sidelines ready to swoop in when the floor becomes apparent.

Yeah, we do, don't we....

 

[Irishjugg]

Tesla could add a fourth shift to the MS-MX production line.

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not.

 

[SteveG3]

Yeah, we do, don't we....

took my second nibble at $311, several waiting and ready limit orders for more bites. if you know anyone that regretted not buying in over the past 6-7 months, this looks like a very nice price to start building a position.

 

[neroden]

this stock went from $180 to $380 in 9 months... and now the M3 is "out"... maybe the stock will actually move toward tangible valuations instead of ones based on ever growingly obvious intangible goals.

Tell me, myusername, when do you think Amazon will be valued based on "tangible valuations"? Growth companies are always valued on future performance.