2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Starno]

I will vote no for sure as a stock holder. Unless if they want to offer $1000/sh today. In 2-3 years I might be looking for $2000/sh+ for a buy-out.

I see too much possibilities coming from an AI voice assistant and autonomous driving to even consider 2000 dollars.

 

[Curt Renz]

It probably is too simplistic to make such a generic analogy as I did. To narrow it down a little, I believe that the transition from ICE to EV will be much faster than most people think. I think within 10 years from now at least 80% of new cars sold will be electric. If that actually comes true, that will be a shocking transition, but I believe it will happen. Obviously all the EV's sold will not be Teslas. Not even close. But ICE sales will be dead and manufacturers who do not embrace the transition will be like Nokia, who missed the smartphone transition and died when it comes to cell phone sales.

 

[TradingInvest]

Tesla is working aggressively to address 15 trillion dollars potential market (ride sharing, vehicle market, freight transport, energy generation, energy storage, content, and a few other things down the road).

I see every indication that Tesla will take at least 30% of the markets with overall 10% net earnings. Also it's highly likely Tesla will buy back 40~50% shares down the road like Apple did in recent years. 15T X30% X10% at P/E of 10 gives a market cap of 5T. Total number of shares at 100 million after 40% buyback. 5T/100m = $50,000 per share. Not saying it's my target, it's conceivable TSLA could go as high as $50,000 in 10~15 years.

I discount the target to $8k because nothing is 100% sure.

 

[Starno]

Tesla is working aggressively to address 15 trillion dollars potential market (ride sharing, vehicle market, freight transport, energy generation, energy storage, content, and a few other things down the road).

I see every indication that Tesla will take at least 30% of the markets with overall 10% net earnings. Also it's highly likely Tesla will buy back 40~50% shares down the road like Apple did in recent years. 15T X30% X10% at P/E of 10 gives a market cap of 5T. Total number of shares at 100 million after 40% buyback. 5T/100m = $50,000 per share. Not saying it's my target, it's conceivable TSLA could go as high as $50,000 in 10~15 years.

I discount the target to $8k because nothing is 100% sure.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I knew it !

 

[PKINOC]

I think we will already be a lot higher by the time there is formal confirmation. The market will anticipate the news well in advance as it is already doing now. I expect TT007 to be posting a LOT more here over the coming weeks.

Sure, but expect a bunch of other bottlenecks and possible supplier issues all over the place. This will not be a smooth ramp up to 5,000-10,000/week.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tesla is working aggressively to address 15 trillion dollars potential market (ride sharing, vehicle market, freight transport, energy generation, energy storage, content, and a few other things down the road).

I see every indication that Tesla will take at least 30% of the markets with overall 10% net earnings. Also it's highly likely Tesla will buy back 40~50% shares down the road like Apple did in recent years. 15T X30% X10% at P/E of 10 gives a market cap of 5T. Total number of shares at 100 million after 40% buyback. 5T/100m = $50,000 per share. Not saying it's my target, it's conceivable TSLA could go as high as $50,000 in 10~15 years.

I discount the target to $8k because nothing is 100% sure.

I would love $50k sp that would be worth $2B and all of i’ll Be only 59 to 64 was n that time frame there could be a worse things in life

 

[SteveG3]

I don’t except tsla to match the ferocity of btc rally . It could However go up 3 to 6 Times current price over the next 1 to 2 years
Just a wild wild guess

very well, our guesses at least overlap by a hair now, as I'd say up 2X to 3X in the next 2-3 years, and, very likely undervalued at that (I'm not expecting the outsized TSLA short position or the ham-fisted tilt to the frenetic, loud attempts to shape public opinion about Tesla, TSLA, and Elon to go away within this timeframe).

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, this is getting insane $13 / 4% rise on no news !?
Its either insider trading or TT007 has too much cash on his hand (maybe he sold his bitcoins) ?

 

[Curt Renz]

Similar to what I noted about the trading on Wednesday, we are again seeing buying interest in extended spurts accompanied by volume. This is typically a telltale sign of institutional accumulation of shares. Some well funded entity (or entities) may either know something about the near term, or has become more confident about the long term prospects for Tesla.

Or are just EOQ/EOY windowdressing to show TSLA in their portfolio?
(Crossed the 50% YTD mark.)

OK, this is getting insane $13 / 4% rise on no news !?
Its either insider trading or TT007 has too much cash on his hand (maybe he sold his bitcoins) ?

That's an interesting point about window dressing. But this quarter has not been kind to TSLA, and it's an end of a quarter that is most likely to inspire window dressing. I suspect that the apparently renewed institutional interest is due to deeper considerations. In any event, if some money managers are going to implement end of year window dressing, it may be a bit early for that.

Meanwhile, here at mid-session, signs continue of possible institutional buying interest. Sometimes that evolves during an afternoon (or the following morning) into covering of positions by short sellers.

 

[Waiting4M3]

OK, this is getting insane $13 / 4% rise on no news !?
Its either insider trading or TT007 has too much cash on his hand (maybe he sold his bitcoins) ?

The news is already out there, one just have to look, and TMC forums have them aplenty, 100s of M3 coming out of Fremont, parking lots full of MS/X in Canada, record number delivery in Norway. By the time these information are digested and summarized in your traditional news channel, the big money would have already bought in.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Slow down everyone except TT007. You are all starting to make TT007's projections look pessimistic.
Think positive, continue to independently research and act prudently, never push and remember the sloth. Those that have been tracking TSLA for many years know trading patterns can reverse on a bitcoin...er..I meant dime.

 

[Richgoogol]

I've never said any of these things... what I just said is 300 cars in a parking lot does not equate to 1m/yr w/ $6B in net profits in 2020... the level of madness on this board actually requires me to say this out loud.

also... I've never said they can't do any of these things... my "line" is that whatever they do will end up being well short of any mega-goals that you continuously hear... and that Tesla will eventually become a typical auto company valued as a typical auto company and not the hype bubble stock as is currently being demonstrated.

I bet you saw this coming. Sold your short position at @ 313.8 and bought some calls at 313.75 this morning and profited handsomely so far.

 

[SteveG3]

It probably is too simplistic to make such a generic analogy as I did. To narrow it down a little, I believe that the transition from ICE to EV will be much faster than most people think. I think within 10 years from now at least 80% of new cars sold will be electric. If that actually comes true, that will be a shocking transition, but I believe it will happen. Obviously all the EV's sold will not be Teslas. Not even close. But ICE sales will be dead and manufacturers who do not embrace the transition will be like Nokia, who missed the smartphone transition and died when it comes to cell phone sales.

Within 10 years, we may reach 80% of all demand for vehicles being for BEVs. It is nearly impossible that supply will reach 80% in that time.

The supply for those vehicles in the picture Curt shared? The Model T led the way... 170,000 of which were produced in the year 1913 when that second photo was taken.

The barrier to entry for a new EV maker today is massive vs. a new ICE maker in the early 20th century. Just look at how Fisker, Faraday Future, Coda, Lucid, Detroit Electric, etc. have struggled.

As to the incumbents... they are effectively like a cartel. They may not be explicitly colluding, but, they have been and are continuing effectively doing what's in their sphere of influence to maximize the lifetime of ICE which means limiting the supply of BEVs. Their sphere of influence isn't as if all powerful... they are influenced by moves like those of the Chinese government, and the luxury makers have been impacted by Tesla, but their influence is tremendously larger and more concentrated than horse breeders and horse carriage makers.

Think of it this way.... if the transition to ICE cars from the horse and buggy depended on 15 behemoth global horse breeder/buggy making companies imploding their existing cash machine while somehow investing massive amounts of capital amid that collapse of profits to start producing a global supply of ICE vehicles, there would have been many many more years of demand for ICE outstripping supply.

Bottom line, demand for BEVs reaching a tipping point? as soon as 4-5 years from now. Supply reaching a tipping point? looking almost certain not to happen until the 2030s. This is Tesla's most fundamental moat to long-term torrid growth for the auto business as I've written about in a separate thread.

The Fractured Tipping Point Moat

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Don't say you weren't warned.

The analogy is overwhelmingly obvious. The only (big) difference is lack of profitability during ramp up for Tesla whereas Iphone was profitable much, much sooner. That may or may not matter in the long run. That's the only remaining question.

Other than that, the Nokia / Iphone > ICE / Tesla transition is blatantly obvious.

Did Apple spend billions to build the factory that build the iphone or was it Foxconn? If that cost was added in I’m sure it would be slightly less profitable in the beginning.

 

[AlMc]

That's an interesting point about window dressing. But this quarter has not been kind to TSLA, and it's an end of a quarter that is most likely to inspire window dressing. I suspect that the apparently renewed institutional interest is due to deeper considerations. In any event, if some money managers are going to implement end of year window dressing, it may be a bit early for that.

Meanwhile, here at mid-session, signs continue of possible institutional buying interest. Sometimes that evolves during an afternoon (or the following morning) into covering of positions by short sellers.

^^^^^^This^^^^^^. Not window dressing but repositioning portfolios. If you are a money manager looking at next year's potential big winners you are looking at TSLA as one possibility that you prefer not to miss out on.

 

[TradingInvest]

Slow down everyone except TT007. You are all starting to make TT007's projections look pessimistic.
Think positive, continue to independently research and act prudently, never push and remember the sloth. Those that have been tracking TSLA for many years know trading patterns can reverse on a bitcoin...er..I meant dime.

I agree, don't get carried away by bullish predictions (including mine) and buy with 200% margin. Don't buy high sell low. Don't throw away your money on short term gambles, unless you are really good at it. At this moment the battery packs probably are produced by hands, although the news sound like ramp is smooth.

It's better to fully understand the potential and risk of the company, hold a proper size based on your own financial situation. Meanwhile keep saving cash, buy more when there is a good opportunity. Think in terms of valuation, instead of guessing the next price move.

 

[3Victoria]

Ah, stop being so sensible

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tsla I knew it!

 

[Intl Professor]

New Gigafactory announcement????? VWAG.